How Clutch is Andrew McCutchen?

Andrew McCutchen is the face of Pittsburgh baseball. He finished in the top three of National League MVP voting each of the last three seasons. What the voters took into consideration were probably stats like batting average, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases, and the like. Many voters probably even took advanced stats into consideration: weighted runs created (wRC), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) are just a few of the numerous stats that sabermetric enthusiasts love. But have you ever heard of Clutch?

Of course you know what it means for a player to be clutch: hitting a game-winning home run in the bottom of the 9th or nailing a jumper at the buzzer. But what determines whether a player is clutch or not? Most people, like myself, use the eye test. Big Papi is clutch because he always “seems” to deliver in big situations and Panda is clutch because he doesn’t stop hitting in the postseason. For some reason, McCutchen, for as good as he is, doesn’t get mentioned as a “clutch” player. I couldn’t wrap my head around it.

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Luckily, Fangraphs can help us out. The website measures “clutch” using this fancy formula:

Clutch = (WPA/pLI) – WPA/LI

WPA stands for win probability added and measures how much a player increases or decreases his team’s chances of winning during each at-bat. LI stands for leverage index and is an attempt to quantify the pressure of each in-game situation (i.e. high leverage versus low leverage situations). And pLI measures a player’s average leverage index for all in-game situations. Essentially, the clutch stat takes into account the pressure a player faces when up to bat during different times of a game and how that player performs based on that pressure.

What pops out from this equation is a number ranging from -2 to 2 (in extreme cases, a player can be higher than 2 and lower than -2). The higher the number, the more clutch you are and vice versa. In 2014, the highest Clutch score belonged to Alex Gordon of the Royals with a Clutch rating of 2.22, while the lowest score belonged to Torii Hunter of the Tigers with a rating of -2.27 (among qualified batters, as you can see here).

So, this begs the question: how clutch is Cutch?

In 2014, Cutch had a clutch stat of -0.30. That would qualify as below average among Major League hitters, ranking 86th out of qualified batters. In his NL MVP 2013 season, he had a clutch rating of -0.87, ranking 113th. Over the last three seasons, Cutch ranks 177th out of 223 players. Clearly the clutch statistic isn’t friendly to the face of the Pirates franchise.

For some reason, McCutchen, for as good as he is, doesn’t get mentioned as a “clutch” player. I couldn’t wrap my head around it.

Then again, there’s probably a reason you may not have heard of “clutch” before. For one, there are so many factors that are difficult to quantify: adrenaline in a high intensity situation, the impact of the crowd, the player’s confidence during those types of at-bats, etc. And advanced stats are still in the process of being trendy, as the traditional stats still dominate baseball analysis. However, there may be something to clutch. Last season, the Royals and Giants were the only teams in baseball to each place two players in the top 10 for clutch, and we all know where they ended up.

Cutch is still the best player in the National League. He rakes in the big three (average, home runs, and RBIs) every year, won a Gold Glove in 2012 for his defense, and ranks in the top of the league in just about every major statistical category on a consistent basis. His contract is one of the best values in all of baseball, and his presence off the field is second to none. Maybe being clutch is a stat that is un-quantifiable. Or maybe it’s part of the beginning of trying to understand baseball just a little bit more.

Next: Pirates willing to pay big money to keep Andrew McCutchen

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