AJ Burnett will retain his velocity in 2015

When it was announced that AJ Burnett would take a pay cut and join the Pittsburgh Pirates for their 2015 campaign, there was much rejoicing. Soon after the initial jolt of enthusiasm on the signing wore off, hot sports takes such as these were heard far and wide: “How much does this guy have left, really?” “He sucked last year in Philly, he can’t be good this year, can he?” “He’s too old to contribute!” These phrases, some put forth more intelligently than others, were in fact legitimate questions. Much has been written on these pages about the need for A.J. Burnett to “be an innings-eater” and that “he doesn’t have to be the A.J. of old” Much of these conclusions on what we need from Burnett comes from the assumption that as he gets older, his fastball isn’t what it once was.

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I’m here today to tell you, Pirates fans, that AJ Burnett may or may not have a good year for the Bucs in 2015. But if he doesn’t it won’t be because of a slowly dying fastball.

We can see my case being made on Burnett’s pitchf/x page on fangraphs. According to their data, over the past three seasons, Burnett has narrowed his arsenal down to four pitches: Fastball, Sinker, Knuckle Curve, and Changeup. As is usually the case with pitchers of a certain age, one can look at the velocity in their fastball to determine what they may have left in the tank. Let’s do that with Batman.

First, let’s look at the year A.J. had in 2013:

2013 fastball type-pitchf/x breakdown
Pitch type	Pitches	Minimum-Vel	Max-Vel	Average Vel
Sinker	369	89.1	95.0	92.6
Fastball	1394	88.8	95.7	92.5

Contrast that against his fastball-type pitches in 2014:

2014 fastball-type pitchf/x breakdown
Pitch type	Pitches	Minimum-Vel	Max-Vel	Average Vel
Sinker	1290	87.7	95.9	91.7
Fastball	730	88.4	94.9	91.7

The difference in approach is jarring. In 2014, it was clear that AJ Burnett relied on his sinker more than in any years past (or since pitchf/x has been around). It’s easy to point to his near season-long groin injury as to why this may be. When he needed to reach back for that extra push on his four-seamer, it wasn’t there for Burnett, and he compensated by throwing the heat less.

I’m here today to tell you, Pirates fans, that AJ Burnett may or may not have a good year for the Bucs in 2015. But if he doesn’t it won’t be because of a slowly dying fastball.

But let’s take a look at the velocity when he did bring the flame. The minimum velocity nearly stayed stagnant year-to-year, losing only .4 mph on the bottom and only .9 at the top. Year-to year, his velocity only dipped 0.8 mph, shattering the illusion that his best stuff is behind him. When one considers the effect the groin injury had on him, you could even say it never left to begin with.

The bottom line is this: If AJ has a lackluster 2015, it won’t be because of his fastball. A healthy and motivated Burnett can still bring the heat.

Next: Stolmy Pimentel is out of options

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