Andrew McCutchen needs better protection in 2015

Andrew McCutchen has received MVP votes each of the last three seasons. He has finished first once (2013) and third twice. In those three years he has hit for a .320/.405/.534 triple-slash line (avg/obp/slg), mashed 77 home runs, and swiped 65 stolen bases in 90 attempts. Cutch has put up those numbers batting from the third spot in the batting order (99.4% of his at-bats since 2012 have come from that spot in the order, he has only made one start elsewhere in the lineup, when he went 2/5 from the clean-up spot in one game in 2013).

One statistic that has risen right along the rest is Andrew’s walk rate. McCutchen’s walk rate (walks per plate appearance) has risen in consecutive years. Here’s a quick look at his statistics the last three years compared to the league-average #3 hitter:

Andrew McCutchen

League Averages (#3 hitters)

As McCutchen’s offensive numbers have improved (and stayed consistently high), pitchers have chosen to throw him less strikes. They would simply rather let someone else in the lineup have their try at hurting them. But how has the batting order protection been for McCutchen over these last three years? I was curious to see exactly what the Pirates have been getting from their clean-up spot, so I did the research and here’s what I found.

Pirates clean-up hitters

League average (clean-up hitters)

You can see the Pirates have had a consistent lack of production from the clean-up spot. It’s almost surprising that McCutchen has been able to put up those gaudy numbers without ever having an offensive threat in the on-deck circle behind him. The best hitter the Pirates have seen following Cutch in the order was the 2012 version of Garrett Jones, who hit .286/.335/.526 in 96 games batting from the fourth spot. That was also McCutchen’s best offensive year by a decently significant margin. I’m not saying that those two facts are directly related, but it makes you wonder, doesn’t it? 

The good news is that the Pirates offense is shaping up to be near the top of the league in runs scored again this year, the bad news is that they’ll probably get below average production from the clean-up spot again

The Pirates never really found a consistent clean-up hitter in 2014, with Neil Walker leading the charge with 53 starts batting fourth. He hit .259/.322/.502 in
those games. Pedro Alvarez started the year as McCutchen’s primary protection, but he flopped hard with a .212/.309/.376 line from the spot. Ike Davis chipped in 34 starts and hit .222/.333/.349, making the Pirates one of the worst teams in the league at hitting from the clean-up spot. The Bucs proved that having balance throughout the lineup can make up for a lack of one-man production as they scored the fourth most runs in the National League last year. A lot of that production has come from the top of the lineup, which has helped Cutch see more pitches to hit. Pirates #2 hitters got on base at a .332 clip last year against a league average of .318, and it was much of the same from the lead off spot – you all saw what Josh Harrison accomplished last year.

The good news is that the Pirates offense is shaping up to be near the top of the league in runs scored again this year, the bad news is that they’ll probably get below average production from the clean-up spot again. Walker figures to be in the clean-up spot against right-handed pitching, and if he can repeat the power numbers he posted last year (23 homers, .467 slugging), that won’t be terrible. However that slugging percentage was 35 points higher than his career average so Walker doesn’t figure to replicate that in 2015. The Pirates are especially slim on clean-up type bats against left-handed pitching this year. Russell Martin made eight appearances in that spot last year, and Starling Marte did it twice. Gaby Sanchez was the main guy against lefties, but he’s no longer with the team. Jeong-ho Kang is probably the best option for right now, and for now we don’t even know if he’s any better than you and I at hitting big league pitching.

In an ideal world for Pirates fans, we would see Pedro Alvarez put a whole season together and hit 35+ home runs while keeping his batting average somewhere close to .250 without absolutely killing the Pirates on defense (which would be hard to do at his new position). He still isn’t ever going to be an intimidating hitter against southpaws, but having a potential 40 home run hitter behind McCutchen could take him to a higher level. The less pitchers want to face the guy behind Cutch, the more strikes they throw him. The more strikes they throw, the more baseballs get hit very hard and very far. The MVP has 30+ home run potential, but it’s going to be hard to get there without a real solid bat behind him, and that’s one thing the Pirates don’t seem to have right now.

Next: All eyes are on Pedro Alvarez in first true exhibition

Andrew McCutchen

League Averages (#3 hitters)

Pirates clean-up hitters

League average (clean-up hitters)