Gerrit Cole Is An Ace: Part Deux

Roughly two months ago I wrote, using numbers derived from the baseball-reference play index tool, how Gerrit Cole is an ace. After further research, there is more than just the original numbers proving Cole is an ace.

In the short career of the 25 year old starter from Newport Beach, California, Gerrit Cole has put up excellent numbers. In his 85 games pitched, all starts, the former first overall pick has posted a 3.03 ERA and a 2.92 FIP to go along with his 1.168 WHIP in 531.2 innings. He has been more than stellar, even with the start against the Chicago Cubs in the 2015 Wild Card game. He has shown he is able to rise up to the task and shutdown teams when needed. For reference, see September 6, 2015 and September 30, 2015, both starts against the St. Louis Cardinals, and both starts being must wins to keep division hopes alive. Even his 86 pitch start against the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2013 NLDS was a solid start, especially for a rookie making his first playoff appearance. Cole has performed well in his career, especially in the last two seasons.

A quick and easy search will show that Cole is eighth among active starters in ERA with a minimum of 200 innings. That mark is better than Stephen Strasburg, who just signed a seven year and $175 million deal. He also ranks ahead of Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, David Price, and Johnny Cueto. Career wise he has been better, but that is not necessarily fair to those who have just hit their stride.

Since 2013 (Minimum 200 Innings)

Beginning in 2013, the year Cole made his debut, Cole ranks 16th in ERA, once again with a minimum of 200 innings pitched. Pitchers such as Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, both who emerged as dominant starters in that time period, rank ahead. Cueto and Wainwright have also surpassed Cole in ERA starting in 2013, but Cole still does remain in front of Strasburg and Price.

Cole’s career FIP of 2.92, shows he has been better than his ERA has shown, and he ranks ninth in FIP, among active starters. Cole ranks ahead of Max Scherzer, Price, Chris Sale, and Strasburg, among many others.

Although the stat of quality starts makes no sense mathematically or logically, but in terms of quality start percentage, the more elite you are, the higher up on the list you will be. Gerrit Cole ranks seventh in quality start percentage at a rate of 72.9 percent. Three of every four starts Cole is going six plus innings and allowing three earned runs or less. He does not allow runs, which is what truly makes you an ace.

More from Rum Bunter

• Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Stockwatch: Outfielder Tres Gonzalez
• Pittsburgh Pirates Podcast: Rum Bunter Radio Talks Winter Meetings Fallout
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Potential Leadoff Hitters in 2023
• Pittsburgh Pirates: The Rotation is not being Improved
• Pittsburgh Pirates Make Vince Velasquez Signing Official

Looking at just 2013 and on, you see just a goof pitcher, and little glimpses of what makes him an ace, and part of that is due to the injury riddled 2014 season.

Since 2015 (Minimum 200 Innings)

But what if Gerrit was just hitting his stride in 2015, a season in which he posted a 2.60 ERA in 208 innings and finished fourth in the National League CY Young Race. After starting the year on the disabled list this season, Cole posted a 3.95 ERA in his first five starts. However, before being placed on the disabled list yet again, Cole proceeded to have a  1.98 ERA in his last seven starts,. Those strong seven starts included a dominant outing against the Chicago Cubs on May 15, and was that dominant start that many have wanted to see. His season ERA is now at 2.77, and he was starting to look like he was last season.

Among starters since 2015, Gerrit Cole ranks sixth in ERA. He ranks better than Noah Syndergaard, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, David Price, and Chris Sale. His 148 ERA+, which means his ERA is 48 percent better than league average, is fifth, behind only Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Grienke, and Jacob deGrom. In fact, there are just six active starters to have a sub 2.70 ERA since 2015, and just ten under a 3.00 ERA. Gerrit Cole is one of them, and that is out of 160 active starters with a minimum 100 innings.

Cole also ranks fifth in FIP with a mark of 2.77. Cole’s 75 percent quality start percentage is good enough for seventh in the league as well.

Cole has been improving, and has been a top ten pitcher in the league since the beginning of last season. If that’s not a definition of an ace, then there are about two aces in the league at the moment in Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta.

Numbers derived from the baseball-reference play index

Gerrit Cole is an ace part one