Pittsburgh Pirates set to host St. Louis Cardinals

On Friday night the Pittsburgh Pirates resume play following the MLB All-Star Break by beginning a 3 game series against the St. Louis Cardinals

Major League Baseball’s All-Star Break is over and the Pittsburgh Pirates are swinging back into action on Friday night. At 7:05 PM on Friday, the Pirates begin a crucial 7 game homestand if they wish to contend for the National League Central championship.

This homestand begins with a 3 game series against their arch nemesis those no good dirty, rotten, evil, vile, cheating St. Louis Cardinals. The Bucs have played a pair of series against the Cards this season both of which occurred at Busch Stadium. The Pirates were swept in the first series between the teams back in April and then took 2/3 games in the second series played last month.

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter this series with a 42-47 record, 7 games out of first place in the National League Central. As for the Cardinals, they enter the weekend with a 43-45 record which puts them 5.5 games out of first place.

Game 1 of the 3 game series tonight will feature a pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole and Mike Leake.

In the first half of the season, not Pirates was more disappointing than Gerrit Cole. In 18 starts Cole owns a career-high 4.43 ERA and 4.48 FIP. Also, he has allowed 19 home runs which is fifth most in the National League.

If the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to make a run at the National League Central in the second half Gerrit Cole must pitch better. Since debuting in June of 2013 through the end of last season Cole ranked third in the National League in FIP and the Bucs need that pitcher back. You can read more about that here.

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Longtime Pirates, and Macy’s department store, nemesis Mike Leake is having one of the strongest seasons of his 8 year Major League career. In 109 2/3 innings pitched Leake owns a 3.12 ERA and a 3.96 FIP. His ERA is the best of his career, while his FIP the third lowest of his career.

Leake’s 6.07 K/9 is the third highest strikeout rate of his Major League career, he owns an excellent 1.97 BB/9 walk rate, and he has allowed just 12 home runs. He is also generating groundballs at a career best 55.7 percent rate. The Pirate offense will have its work cut out for them on Friday night.

Lance Lynn will pitch game 2 for the St. Louis Cardinals and Carlos Martinez will go in game 3. As for the Pirates, they will start Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams in these games.

Lance Lynn is a pitcher the Pirates have always had a lot of success against. This season has been a struggle for Lynn. He has pitched 102 1/3 innings in 18 starts and owns a 3.61 ERA, however, this does not tell the Lynn story.

His 5.19 FIP is by far the worst of his career and indicates he has pitched much worse than his 3.61 ERA, and his 4.60 xFIP indicates he is due for some series regression. He is walking a lot of batters (3.34 BB/9) and allowing a lot of home runs (1.76 HR/9) that is never a good combination.

Facing Carlos Martinez is always a tall task. The Cardinals’ right-handed stalwart is one of the most talented pitchers in the National League. However, this season has been a bit of a struggle for Matinez.

He has made 18 starts and owns a 3.40 ERA and a 3.77 FIP. These are strong numbers, but not what has come to be expected from Martinez. He is still striking a ton of hitters out (9.90 K/9), however, his 49.0 percent groundball rate is a career low and his 1.08 HR/9 is a career high. Control has also been an issue as he is averaging 3.48 BB/9.

To be honest, it is a bit of a surprise the Cardinals are 43-45 because they do not do anything particularly well. They’re 10th in the National League in runs scored (402), 13th in ERA (3.98), and they have struggled defensively (-4.8 dWAR).

Where the Cardinals have struggled most is their bullpen. The Red Birds rank 8th in the National League in bullpen ERA (4.13), and 9th in xFIP (4.38). That xFIP indicates that the Cardinal bullpen is due to regress and struggle even more as the season progresses.

The Pittsburgh Pirates still go as Andrew McCutchen goes. Since June 1st he has been going as well as anyone in baseball, and that is why Penn State is 18-17 since June 1st.

In 147 plate appearances since the start of June Andrew McCutchen owns a .497 on-base percentage, .724 slugging percentage, .503 wOBA, and a 218 wRC+. He has collected 20 extra base hits and owns a remarkable 22:17 walk-to-strikeout rate.

Another player swinging a hot bat since the start of June is first baseman Josh Bell. He owns a .348 on-base percentage, .528 slugging percentage, .366 wOBA, and a 128 wRC+ in 141 plate appearances since the start of June.

Also, Gregory Polanco is finally starting to get going offensively. In his past 81 plate appearances, Polanco owns a .346 on-base percentage, .547 slugging percentage, .365 wOBA, and a wRC+ of 127.

These three players, along with the returning Starling Marte, will be relied upon heavily to carry the Pirate offense the rest of the season.

Next: Should the Pirates be worried about Nova?

The All-Star Break is over and the Pittsburgh Pirates are back, yay! Tonight, they start a critical 7 game homestand at PNC Park. The Bucs start the homestand with a 3 game series against the Cardinals. In order to have a shot at competing for a National League Central championship, the Bucs probably need to go at least 5-2 on this homestand.

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