Pirates 2012 Count Analysis Statistics

NEWS FLASH! The Pirates offense is bad. People have been trying to figure out how to fix it the entire season, and to that I say stop it. There’s no way to really fix this outside of just getting new players to try it. I’m sure we’ll eventually see some minor league guys take a few cracks at it, but as I wrote here, we aren’t going to see any trades made before July. I want to look closely at the at-bats the Pirates are putting up to try and figure out why they have been so bad.

I went straight to Baseball-Reference’s Count Analysis stats for the team. You can see the table here.

This stuff doesn’t answer the problems, but sheds some light on them.

The Pirates have made 1,273 at-bats so far this year. Here’s the percentage run down of who the count has been in favor of when all of these at-bats ended.

Batter ahead: 30.3%
Even count: 34.5%
Pitcher ahead: 35.2%

and here’s how Pirates hitters fare in each situation:

Batter ahead: .291/.439/.482
Even Count: .249/.252/.371
Pitcher ahead: .144/.223/.373

here are the numbers for the division leading St. Louis Cardinals, who have made 1,436 plate appearances this year.

Batter ahead: 35.0%
Even count: 34.0%
Pitcher ahead: 31.0%

here’s the Cardinals numbers in those situations:

Batter ahead: .307/.492/.525
Even count: .321/.331/.552
Pitcher ahead: .229/.230/.335

Comparing the Pirates to the Cardinals is hardly fair, just because of the market size and the players on the roster, but you can still see a problem here. The Pirates are only getting ahead 30% of the time. That’s a testament to pitchers really not being worried about the hitters in the lineup, although the one hitter on the team pitcher’s should be worried about, Andrew McCutchen, is only getting ahead 30% of the time.

The Pirates don’t have the big sticks to make up for lost outs and at-bats that are just handed away. They need to work the counts into their favor as much as possible. Obviously that’s not completely on the hitters. If a pitcher makes good pitches there’s nothing a hitter can do to help from getting behind. However, they really can’t afford to be swinging at balls early in the count. They have to have a better eye at the plate and not fall behind so often, because not even the best offense in the league hits well when behind in the count.

I’m not saying the Pirates need to change their approach at the plate – because I just don’t know the game well enough to say that. I’m confident that Greg Ritchie and company know baseball way more than I do and that they are doing all they can do help this team do the things that they control as well as possible – but the results aren’t showing up.

The next few games you watch, try to pay attention to how often the Pirates are falling behind in the count, and see what results from that. I bet you won’t like what you see.

Injuries haven't slowed the Nationals this season.

Our discussions with Fansided blogs continues today as we talk to Aaron Somers from  District on Deck about the surging Washington Nationals.  The Pirates head into DC with a 17-19 record to take on the beat up, but only half a game back Nats.

1.  We will be invading Nats Park again this week, we understand the parking lot bar–we think it was called The Dugout,  is no longer operational and now it’s replaced by a trailer park or something–where do we go to drink a few Iron City’s before the game Wednesday and Thursday?

As much as I’d love to be able to answer this question, I’m afraid I’m not familiar with the options in the area. While I write about the Nationals and run this site, I’ve never actually been to a Nationals game or to Nationals Park. I live outside of Boston and haven’t even been to Washington D.C. in years. If you’re heading up to Fenway for a game, let me know, I’ll show you a few good spots myself but I’m afraid I’m clueless when it comes to the options in and around the park in D.C..

2. Bryce Harper–how much of an impact do you see him having on the team this season?

That’s no easy question to answer. I think prior to the start of the season I was certain that he’d have an impact, but it wouldn’t be an immediate one. I know we’ve all heard the hype and I think it’s fair to say that everyone has their own level of expectations regarding what he’ll be able to do on the field this season. He arrived much earlier than anticipated, has impressed since arriving, but still isn’t blowing the world away. Wouldn’t you say that’s fair? The fact of the matter is, however, that he’s going to be counted on for the rest of the season, due in part to all of the injuries that this organization is suffering from. Will Harper help this team win games this season? Yes, absolutely. Does his presence guarantee a playoff birth? Not by any means. Harper’s going to have an impact, we all just need to remember to be patient with him.

3. What can you say about Gio and Zimmerman, the Nats starters in this series?

I’ve believed since the offseason that Zimmermann was poised to have a big season this year. And I’m standing by that despite the start he’s gotten off to. He’s pitched well to date – career best ERA and career low BB/9 and H/9 – but he’s been hampered by terrible run support in his starts. I’d like to see a few more strikeouts from him as well. As for Gio, he’s been a huge pickup without a doubt. We all knew he could pitch, despite the high walk rates in Oakland, but there was some uncertainty about how he’d adjust to the National League and I haven’t seen any indication that he’s had a problem so far.

4.  Do you see a weakness in the Nats club with the current roster?

Besides the ability to stay healthy? Yes, there are some weaknesses. The outfield depth is a concern, certainly. Rick Ankiel is playing above his head offensively and one has to wonder how long he can keep it up with regular playing time. Same can be said for Roger Bernadina with his recent hot streak. For better or worse that pair is going to be seeing a lot of playing time in the weeks to come. The bench is also a concern, as Chad Tracy and Xavier Nady (not to mention the injured Mark DeRosa) haven’t lived up to their already-low expectations. I’d personally like to see Steve Lombardozzi worked into the lineup more, perhaps developing him into the super-utility type of player that Ben Zobrist is for the Rays (though Lombo doesn’t have the power potential Zobrist does, which is too bad). I wouldn’t mind seeing the team give Corey Brown (currently in Triple-A) another opportunity at some regular playing time either.

5. What do you expect to see from the Pittsburgh Pirates this series?

The Pirates are a scrappy team. And they’re going to continue to surprise some people this year I think as things continue to fall together for the organization. Pittsburgh won two of three games from the Nationals just last week, let’s not forget. Andrew McCutchen is a beast and I don’t think we’ve seen the best from Jose Tabata just yet, giving the team a solid pair to build around. I still believe Neil Walker is a bit underrated and if Pedro Alvarez ever learns how to make contact with the ball consistently he could be among the league’s best third baseman. Brad Lincoln seems to finally be coming around and James McDonald has looked sharp, but otherwise there isn’t a player on the pitching staff that really excites me. That is going to be key for the organization to get back into contention, I think. Once they can consistently develop a few starters to pair with McCutchen, Tabata, and the rest of their position player foundation then the Pirates could be a really fun team to watch.

6.  Series prediction?

Considering the scheduled starters for the series (Gio Gonzalez vs. James McDonald, Jordan Zimmermann vs. Charlie Morton) I’m actually going to give both games to Washington. Game 1 heads into extra innings – let’s just say Henry Rodriguez blows a save, somehow – before the Nats pull it out in the end. Game 2 isn’t quite as close, but is far from being a blowout.

Follow Aaron out on Twitter  

We jumped on StubHub yesterday, and grabbed tickets for the Bucs Nats game for $15 bucks.  Front row.  Crazy.  We just had to do it, we told ourselves—need to see how all of these politicos handle some sports buzz in person.

Washington D.C. is an amazing place for most everything, except sports. The city hasn’t had a positive sports buzz for quite some time.

We can’t dig up anything that matches the buzz created by this rookie outfielder named Bryce Harper.  It’s a buzz of Cheech and Chong-like proportions. We tried to see when DC was more abuzz… the biggest sports moment would have to bring up John Riggins and the year 1983.

So yeah, it’s been a while.

We have a feeling that the stands in D.C. will empty out by the seventh inning or so.  Sure, the die-hards will remain, but Washington is having a difficult time coming to grips with the fact that their team, despite some serious injuries, is tough as hell.

We will tweet some pictures to prove our hypothesis. If anyone from D.C. wants to challenge this hypothesis, leave a comment. If  you can figure out how to respond on a sports website.  We’re not sure you read these fancy things yet.

768 tickets were still on sale to see the first place Nationals.  Maybe there is something to that old saying that there is a reason they lost a team in the first place, so why are they trying this again?   One great reason is the ownership.  The Nationals are blessed with a family with deep pockets; perhaps the deepest in MLB.  The Lerner family has a great thing going on – we would have to think the crowds will eventually show up.

We remember when Stephen Strasburg made his debut.  The tickets were hotter than hell.  Below is the screen shot from the broken Nats site when “Strasmas” happened.

But how long will this last?   After Strasburg got rocked in San Diego yesterday, and with all the talk about the Nats shutting him down, will Nats fans commit to the 2012 season?  The big question for us is this: will the Nats shut down such a powerful ticket selling machine in mid-August?

We started to wonder if their strategy to think long term with Strasburg works in a way to drive ticket sales this season?  Is this an example of providing a small supply—- a limited number of home starts by Strasburg to create high demand (people buy extra game tickets just to get the Strasburg tickets.)?

Or, maybe, this is a very smart strategy to take with their phenom? If anyone asked us,  we would want to get all we could out of Strasburg.  Shutting down ‘The Stras’ is considerate in terms of player development, but isn’t the championship window limited?   Selfishly, we think the Nats should just let it roll.

Washington DC needs a winner.  We couldn’t remember any big winning tradition, so we hit the Internets.  Sure enough, Washington hasn’t won a World Series since 1924.  Almost 90 years since the Washington Senators actually did something*.

*The ball team, not the politicians–the blowhards’ streak continues

That Series victory was fluky, too.  It took a Game Seven Earl McNeely bad-hop single in the 12th inning to plate the winning run for the Senators.

The Nats were the worst team in baseball just a few years ago.  Everyone threw them around, even during the Pierogie Race.  Back in 2009,  pierogie Potato Pete gave Teddy some #Peteitude, when he ran onto the field and leveled Teddy, taking him out of the race.

Over the past couple years, the Nats have overpaid for some nice acquisitions and carefully developed their young players and now find themselves hanging around the top of the NL East.  We guess it’s the #Natitude.

One thing is for certain: it’s painful to think the Pirates are still sort of stinky, but didn’t stink bad enough a few years ago to get ultra-talented players like Strasburg and Harper.

Nothing is definite in the pure truth known as baseball. But this seems damn close:  Strasburg made his impressive debut about 24 hours after Bryce Harper was selected by the Nats as their first pick in the 2010 draft.  Now two years later, the nation’s capital has the most hyped baseball talent ever rocking ten stitches under his Nats hat, playing the outfield behind a pitching staff that has led the Nats to the top of the hill in the NL East.

The Nats have talent all over the roster (and all over the DL, too).  It’s only going to be harder to imagine the “what ifs” as their success continues.  But it seems when looking at the attendance numbers, some in DC still don’t believe it.

In 17 games the Nats have sold just over 432,000 tickets, or 61.2 percent of the available inventory over those 17 games.  The Pirates have sold 60.6 percent of their seats, good for about 395,462 fans through the turnstiles.

With their 2012 success on the diamond, and an in-your-face ad campaign off the field, you might think it would be hard to get a ticket.  Maybe they know we’re coming.

Natitude Park: Forty percent empty.