Neal Huntington has been a wheel and dealer, but 2012 looks like a different story

Shane Victorino?  Shit. No.  Hunter Pence?  Carlos Lee?  Come on.

Nonetheless, in about 24 hours, the Pirates will have made the moves that the team feels will give this 2012 club what it takes to grab a spot in the playoffs.  Let’s trust the 2013 and 2014 Pittsburgh Pirates are set for success as well.  All along, Huntington has said that is the plan.

Unfortunately, the developments over the past week have made the waters on the North Side mirky.  Real mirky.  Will the question marks make the Bucs do something out of character in order to overtake the Reds?  We doubt it.

Some of those developments and questions are as follows:

A young ace in James McDonald has some things to work on.  If you watched the game yesterday, the Buccos right-hander could be seen flexing his pitching hand on a few occassions.  We’re not sure what that was about, but we trust as he approaches the most innings he has thrown as a big leaguer, that he will remain healthy.

July 29, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage (54) talks to starting pitcher James McDonald (53) against the Houston Astros during the third inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Campbell-US PRESSWIRE

Veteran pitcher Kevin Correia has came out to the press and said he wants to be a starter.  Some have said, that he demanded to be traded.  Whatever.  Correia wants to help the team win.  The guy is as competitive as it gets and I trust he can stick around and won’t be moved.  Love him or hate him, the Pirates are better with six experienced ML starting pitchers than they are with five.  What would Correia get right now–a marginal prospect or a bench bat?  No thanks.  We know some of you are pissed about what KC said, but this team is better with him on it than trading him for some prospect or a bench bat guy who gets an AB once every three games.

The Pirates offense keeps slugging home runs, but failed to hit very well with runners in scoring position against what could be the worst team in baseball this past weekend.  A rare four game sweep of the Astronauts was missed because of a combination of all three of the areas of concern.

And finally, with all that on his plate, today is Clint Hurdle’s birthday.  Happy Birthday Clint!  He might be so damn busy he doesn’t even get to enjoy his cake.  In fact, how Hurdle goes about his day should decide what the Pirates will look like after the trade deadline dust settles.

Will Hurdle have a heart to heart with Correia?  Yeh, we would take that to the bank.

Can Hurdle and Searage fix JMac before the big Reds series this weekend?  We bet it’s going on right now.

Can Hurdle be absolutely certain that his team is focused on a Cubs series that could mean just as much as the Reds series coming up?  Lose another series to the Cubs with the Reds chalking up win after win, and winning that Reds series this weekend in Cincy where they are 7-2 the past two years, won’t be such a big deal.

The Pirates need a clubhouse leader to step up and take charge today.  If not, a golden opportunity to set up a showdown in Cincy could be gone.

The Bucs seem very reluctant to include Starling Marte, or any big arms like Gerrit Cole in a deadline deal.  We are behind that thinking as it directly relates to picking up players like Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.  Victorino can’t hit line drives anymore and his power is gone.  Pence has been awful in right field, sure…. all of us have seen enough of Josh Harrison, but the thought of Pence in Pittsburgh doesn’t make me immediately think the Bucs will get to the promised land.

But what about selling right now…you know adding by subtracting?  Surely teams have asked about left handed pitcher Justin Wilson?  He has pitched 113.2 innings and struckout 120.  The part we love is he has given up just 81 hits.  As you know, the downside is his walk rate of 4.75BB/9 stinks.  Wilson is sporting a 4.06 FIP.  Would the Pirates move him in a deal, he has looked solid in the International League if it wasnt for those damn walks.

Wilson catches Wil Rhymes looking during a 2-0 Indianapolis no-hitter earlier this season.

Here is Wilson whiffing Josh Rodriguez during his seven strikeout, five walk outing yesterday.

Would the Pirates move Tony Sanchez who recently has found his homerun stroke?  You can take it to the bank that teams have called on Sanchez’s availability.  Ballsy move?  Sure it is, but Sanchez has made some questionable decisions in his career.

Let’s face it.  The 2012 Pirates are close.  But take a really good look at that team in Cincy.  That team is better right now, even without Votto.

But check this out, the Pirates are 15-9 in head-to-head matchups against the Reds in the past two years.  Suck it Marty.  The Bucs are 7-2 at their house, just 8-7 at PNC Park.  The Pirates have scored 95 runs in those games and allowed 93.  The Bucs addition of Wandy Rodriguez should help reduce those runs allowed based on what he has done against the current Reds lineup.  An improved Bucs defense will help as well.

But will it be enough?   We think the Reds pitching staff is due for a regression.  So we think it is.

Another point that is brought up is why not sell a few Major League pieces and be set for a while, allowing the team to grow?   I still keep looking at 2013 and wondering what that team will look like?  We can’t see the Pirates paying Joel Hanrahan in ’13, but the market is limited as most of the competitive teams have a solid closer.  So just what team is going to give up those Major League bats for the Hammer?  We are still trying to find out.  Maybe that guy meant two actual bats…you know, the Louisville Slugger kind.

The Pirates match up well in head-to-head competition against the Reds without any more moves.  The Pirates are probably concerned about just what the Reds will add at the deadline, but based on our beliefs, it will only weaken the Reds in the future.

The Pirates have work to do that doesn’t involve overpaying for a bat.  Sweep the Cubs.  Figure out JMac.  Calm Correia’s ass down with some tough love from the birthday boy.

The Bucs should add a reliever if the price is right, but now isn’t the time for the Pirates to move any of their best prospects for the bats that they have been linked to in trade rumors.   Based on what we hear about the demands of the selling teams, the idea of trading for one of those bats right now compares to going into Sheetz and paying five hundred bucks for a one dollar scratch off ticket.

Screw that, even if all the proceeds benefit Pennsylvania senior citizens.

Shane Victorino had the World Series on his mind back in April. A lot has changed since then for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Victorino’s name keeps being mentioned with the Pirates and it popped up again today in this report by Jim Salisbury.    We want you to note that Victorino is heating up lately, but more on that after we review where we came from on the Flyin’ Hawaiian.

Back on July 8, we wrote this about Victorino….

Could Victorino just need out?  Was he pissed about his failure to get a contract done before the season?    Could he be the type of player who can turn it on in the second half, and land that four or five year deal he covets?

Maybe.  But why couldn’t he just do that in Philly? Sorry, but it reminds us of a Derrek Lee situation.

Are the poor numbers of this season simply a case of bad luck for the Flyin’ Hawaiian?  Some will point at his .260 BABIP and scream that fact to the hills.  But we look at his lowest line drive percentage ever, and hit the warning sirens.

If you look closer, 2011 was his previous low water mark for hitting line drives, although he had a monstrous season.  We’re afraid a trend is coming.   His on-base percentage is also down 40 points from where he finished in 2011.

Victorino is seeing fewer and fewer fastballs, so maybe jamming him into the Pittsburgh lineup would help force the pitch selection by the bad guys on the bump?  We’re not so sure.  Victorino’s slugging percentage has taken a <em>serious</em> dive.  It’s down from .491 to .373 this year.

Perhaps Dan Fox and the gang sees something we don’t.

Perhaps Clint Hurdle sees Victorino swinging at the more pitches outside the zone  than he has since 2006, and feels he can fix him.

Perhaps Neal Huntington knows the cost will be so damn low it will be worth a shot in the dark.

But when we look at it from a numbers standpoint, it’s hard to see the Pirates targeting Victorino.  There are simply too many warning signs screaming to the contrary.  Now, could it be a package deal with Cole Hamels in the mix?  We’re trying to sniff around and find out.  Something like that would make sense, we guess, but Victorino alone?

There’s a reason the Phils are ready to unload Victorino, a player who was looking to get paid before the season.  There has to be a reason that deal never happened.

In the past ten games, while Victorino hasn’t hit a long ball, he is hitting .361.  He has seven extra base hits this month, four doubles and three triples.  His on base is up to .312 and the slugging is .403 for the month.  But he hasn’t hit a bomb since June 8 against the Orioles.

Sorry, the Bucs aren’t gonna pay a lot for that muffler.  According to reports, the Phillies want relievers and among the teams in the mix the Phils have asked for:  Wade Davis from the Rays, Logan Ondrusek of the Reds, Josh Lindblom from L.A., and Brad Lincoln of the Bucs.

It’s not surprising teams have said, thanks, but no thanks.  The Victorino price tag can’t be much with his poor offensive numbers.

It’s hard to believe he is going to be a Philadelphia Phillies player much longer, the only question is which team is going to be able to negotiate a deal with Phils GM GM Ruben Amaro, Jr.

SP Jeff Locke has compiled a 7-4 record with a 2.92 ERA in 16 starts for Indianapolis this season.

The mid-season hot stove has officially heated up, and the Pirates seem to be right in the middle of the hottest trade talks.  Sitting in first place in the N.L. Central with a 48-37 first half record, the debate is on for Pirates fans – should the Bucs go “all in” and make a play for a big-name player?  Should they go the bargain route, similar to the 2011 deals for Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick?  Would they be better suited to sit tight and allow their internal options to fill the holes on the major league roster?  These questions are the main topic of every sports talk radio show and message board this week, as the All Star break puts us every so closer to the looming July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

Regardless of what GM Neil Huntington decides to do in 2012, it will hopefully have a better effect than the two deals he made last summer.  While the Pirates didn’t give up any mentionable value in the Lee or Ludwick deals, both trades seemed to come too late to help avoid the slide that doomed the 2011 season.  Lee provided some decent pop for the Bucs when he was healthy, hitting .337 with 7 homers and 21 RBI in 113 plate appearances.  Ludwick was a major disappointment, only managing a .232 average in his 38 games in Pittsburgh.  Both deals came on the heels of a 2-5 road trip to Atlanta and Philadelphia, a span of games that seemed to truly rip the spark out of a team that was 53-47 heading into the trip.  The Pirates lost their next seven games after the July 31 trades, the meat of a 10-game losing streak that for all intents and purposes eliminated the Pirates from contention.

There is little doubt that the 2012 Bucs are a deeper, more experienced team that should be able to avoid a major slide.  With that being said, the Pirates still lack the stretch-drive experience of the Cardinals and Reds – the two teams that should be the main division race rivals for the rest of the season.  The additions of A.J. Burnett and Rod Barajas have given the Bucs a shot of playoff experience, and the continued development of Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, and Neil Walker into legit major league All Stars (and MVP candidate in McCutchen) has solidified the roster immensely.  Even still, the Pirates have some holes to fill – be it via trades or in-house minor league talent that is ready to arrive at the big league level.  The regressing of OF Jose Tabata, and his subsequent demotion, has led to a mix-and-match situation in RF.  SP Erik Bedard has been maddeningly inconsistent, and often times flat-out horrible.  That has left the Pirates with two immediate openings that need to be adequately filled if the Bucs intend on seeing this amazing season through to the finish.

OF Starling Marte has been rumored to be on his way to Pittsburgh over the past few weeks. Photo courtesy indystar.com.

The Pirates have been linked to such splash-worthy names of Phillies SP Cole Hamels and OF Shane Victornio, Padres OF Carlos Quentin, and even Arizona OF Justin Upton – a 24-year old two-time All Star who is being shopped by the Diamondbacks.  All of these players besides Upton would be essentially “rental” players, free agents at the end of 2012.  Despite that fact, the cost of acquiring top-line talent would be prohibitive for a small market team like the Pirates, requiring the trade of top-tier prospects.  Upton specifically would command a return that could set the Pirates development back 2-3 years, and would do so with a contract that will pay him over $40 million through the next four seasons.  While it is tantalizing to consider the production that an outfield consisting of both Upton and Andrew McCutchen could accomplish, the potential prospect package heading back to Arizona would inevitably include either Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon, and possibly OF Starling Marte.  That is a major hit to a farm system that has slowly built its way back into a talent pipeline under Huntington, who inherited an organization devoid of any legitimate talent from predecessor David Littlefield.

The Pirates outfield situation has become less of a concern since the addition of utility player Drew Sutton, who since June 24 has hit .313 while manning a corner outfield slot.  Sutton is not a long-term solution to the problem, although he has played admirably while out of his natural infield environment.  Starling Marte could be that long-term fix, a 23-year old five-tool player who was the talk of spring training and has excelled at both AA-Altoona and AAA-Indianapolis.  The rumors of a Marte promotion have been making their rounds in Pittsburgh, with the play of Sutton quite possibly being the only delay to the move.  If Marte is promoted, fans should expect the same type of adjustment period that McCutchen experienced during his rookie season of 2009.  Even with that, there is reason to believe that Marte could be an immediate upgrade over any combination of outfielders currently on the roster.  This is a player that could be another building block for a team that won’t truly hit on all cylinders until 2013 at the earliest, when Cole and Taillon could be ready to step into the starting rotation.  Of course, any team that is contacted by the Pirates about a trade this summer will have the name Starling Marte on the tip of their tongue.   He is the type of prospect that major deals are built around, and would probably step right into the starting lineup for any team that he is traded to in 2012.

The starting pitching situation is likely to become more of a factor as the season gets deeper and the innings pile up.  While A.J. Burnett has proven to be a workhorse starter who can be counted on for 33-35 starts, he is the only current starter who has reached the 200 IP level in his major league career.  James McDonald is having a Cy Young-caliber season, but nobody truly knows how his arm will hold up once September rolls around.  Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens look like they could provide some quality innings in the second half.  Even if all four of these pitchers stay healthy until the end of the season, that still leaves the Bucs with a gap to fill.  Trading for a top of the line, elite starter like Cole Hamels or Matt Garza would give the Pirates a rotation that matches up with the best in the National League – but once again, will come at a cost.  Another option would be to look at cheaper trade options – guys like the Cubs Ryan Dempster, the Padres Clayton Richard, or even old fan favorite Paul Maholm.  The Pirates could probably make a deal for any of that group without touching the Cole/Taillon/Marte threesome, which seems to be the line of demarcation in determining whether a deal should be done or not.

The Pirates have some intriguing starters at Indianapolis that could be ready to step in this summer.  The rotation at Indy includes Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, and Rudy Owens, a trio of left-handed starters who have developed rather nicely this year.  Locke is the only one of the three with major league experience, having made four less than impressive starts late last season for the Bucs.  His 2012 campaign has renewed his prospect label – a 7-4 record with a 2.92 ERA and 84 K’s over 95.2 IP.  At 24-years old, he seems to be the best bet for an addition to the big league rotation – and thus, he is also a formidable trade chip should the Pirates decide to make a deal.  Wilson has also made an impression on scouts, averaging over a strikeout per inning in only his fourth professional season.  The 2008 5th round pick has started a team-high 18 games for the Indians, but may be better suited to spend a full season at the AAA level while he improves his control.  His 4.2 BB/9 number indicates that he hasn’t gained full confidence over his power arsenal.  Rudy Owens name has been thrown around as a spot starter this season for the Bucs, who have yet to pull the trigger on the move.  His 2.89 ERA leads Indianapolis, and he has shown the ability to pitch deep into ballgames – throwing 106.o innings in 17 starts.  Owens is another name commonly brought up in trade evaluations, and he could be the key to any mid-level trade the Pirates attempt.

SP Rudy Owens has a 7-4 record and a 2.89 ERA for Indianapolis in 2012. Photo courtesy bucconation.wordpress.com

It has been said that you can never have too much young pitching, but the Pirates may actually be at that point.  The trio of Locke/Owens/Wilson were expected to be contributors in the time prior to the arrival of top prospects Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Heredia.  This, of course, was before the trade for A.J. Burnett and the development of James McDonald as an ace.  This is a great situation to be in for the Bucs, allowing them to seriously consider trading any of the AAA staff, while maintaining their long term goals.  Players such as Quentin and Victorino could be within reach if the Pirates are willing to part with one or maybe even two of these pitchers.  Adding a key offensive piece to the major league roster without trading any currently contributing players or high-end prospects would be a huge confidence boost to the organization.

Within a few weeks we will know what course of action the Pirates organization plans to take, and no matter what happens, a winning season appears to be within reach.  That alone would change the course of the Pirates franchise.  Furthermore, the idea that we are even debating the addition of players such as Cole Hamels completely changes the way fans and players alike think of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  This should make for a very interesting July, and should the Bucs keep their current pace, one of the most historic Octobers in Pittsburgh history.

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