Rum Bunter’s 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates Staff Predictions: Stephen Strosko

Next up in our staff predictions for the 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates is Stephen Strosko taking his stab at predicting team MVP, record and more!

What an interesting season 2020 will be for the Pittsburgh Pirates and all of MLB. With COVID-19 continuing to devastate the United States, the reality of a “normal” MLB season, even for 60 games, is all but gone.

Without a playbook or any historical lens with which to view the season through, it is impossible to know what to expect. Will the healthiest team win? Will the team with the most players willing to play win? Will the team that comes out of the gate hottest win? Will anyone care who wins?

While uncertainty rages, my goal is be excited for what is in front of me. And right now, that is witnessing the only 60-game MLB season amidst a world-wide pandemic that history will probably ever write. So at the end of the day, even if the winning World Series team has an asterisks by its name and the season is an epic failure – it’s going to be one of the most unique seasons in MLB history.

In anticipation of the 2020 season, the staff at Rum Bunter have been making their predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates. It is now my turn to predict the team’s MVP, Cy Young, rookie of the year, best position group, and worst position group. And, of course, a spot on prediction of the team’s final win-loss record.

Other Staff Previews:

• Noah Wright

Team MVP – Kevin Newman

I am a huge fan of Kevin Newman, for many different reasons. Newman had an insane rookie season last year, slashing .308/.353/.446 while also adding 12 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Was it as good as Bryan Reynolds’s rookie season or Josh Bell’s first half? No. But I think that Newman has the tools to repeat his 2019 performance year after year, making him the future most valuable player on the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020.

While some people may be underwhelmed by Newman’s 2.4 WAR (they shouldn’t be), Newman’s value rises far beyond what WAR tracks. Newman stepped into the lead off position for the Pirates last year and performed better and more consistently than any lead off batter for the Pirates in a long time. Two statistics that stuck out to me were a low 11.7% strikeout rate and a solid .353 on-base percentage. Looking at Newman’s minor league numbers and taking into consideration that player’s typically improve in their second full season, both of these are sustainable.

In addition, Newman posted fantastic consistency throughout 2019, posting a .280+ BA and .310+ OBP every month – which is a relatively rare trait in among baseball players. All of this paired with the inevitable pressure to perform well with the continued and future promotions of Cole Tucker and Oneil Cruz should lead to a stellar season from Newman.

Team Cy Young – Joe Musgrove

This is an easy one for me. Joe Musgrove combines a relatively high ceiling with years of solid performances. Musgrove was virtually viewed as the team’s ace with Jameson Taillon’s early departure last season, and I believe he fully steps into that role this season. Musgrove’s 4.44 ERA is 2019 is relatively deceptive due to the Pittsburgh Pirates extremely poor defense. Because of this, FIP is a better metric (which takes fielding into consideration) and in 2018 and 2019 Musgrove posted solid FIPs of 3.59 and 3.82.

I would go even a step further and say that the pitching staff injuries, the catching woes, and the pitching staff drama of last season also had a negative effect on Musgrove’s metrics. Taking 2019 out of the picture, Musgrove has shown year to year improvements since joining the MLB. The eye-test also checks out positive for Musgrove.

Musgrove is a true five-pitch pitcher (fastball, cutter, change up, slider, and curveball) that has shown streaks where he completely dominates opposing teams. If the Pirates do not completely fall apart this season, I can see Musgrove post a respectable 3.40 ERA and go 7-3.

Rookie of the Year – Ke’Bryan Hayes

A few opposing forces will make 2020 an interesting season for rookies. With the shortened season, there will be less time for rookies to earn a promotion. On the other hand, rosters are one player larger at 26 instead of 25, teams may opt to give development time to star prospects if minor league teams fail to play games, and if players choose to or are forced to sit out, rookies may need to get promoted.

With all of that being said, I am putting my money on Ke’Bryan Hayes. Hayes may not have a starting job on day one, but, if healthy, he could make the Opening Day roster. Unless fellow third baseman Colin Moran is an absolute monster this year at the plate, Hayes will be the every day third baseman by the end of the season. Hayes is a heralded prospect in the Pirates system and across the MLB. Known for his world class defense and average to above-average bat, there is a lot to like.

Since Ben Cherington took over the front office of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the organization has made it a priority to solidify the Pirates’ abysmal defense. With the defensive skill difference between Hayes and Moran, I am sure Cherington will push to pivot to the rookie sooner rather than later.

Best Position Group – Bullpen

Even with the turmoil and unfortunate events that transpired at the end of 2019, the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen remains extremely formidable. Keone Kela, Richard Rodriguez and Kyle Crick are all extremely solid arms that have posted recent seasons of sub-2.50 ERAs. All three of these pitchers have the ability to close games and perform at an elite level. In fact, drama free seasons from Kela and Crick would potentially lead to all-star level performances (sadly there is no All-Star Game this year).

Outside of the above three arms, the Pirates have a few relievers with massive upside. Nick Burdi has an insane spin rate on his slider and has flashed the ability to be an elite reliever. With a shot at a healthy season, Burdi will be throwing his hat in the ring of relievers competing for the job of closer in 2021.

Michael Feliz and Clay Holmes may not have the upside of Burdi, but both of these pitchers could put together solid seasons as back of the bullpen arms. Feliz had a solid half season with the Pirates last year posting a 3.99 ERA. No one doubts his ability to strike his batters out, but his control issues have always haunted him. Holmes falls into a similar category as Feliz, but has been burdened by even larger control issues.