Rum Bunter’s 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates Staff Predictions: Stephen Strosko

Worst Position Group – Outfield

Sadly, there are multiple position groups that could be competing for the “worst position group” title in 2020. The starting rotation has many question marks with low upside, third base could prove to be disastrous offensively or defensively, and there is a chance that Pirate catchers combine for a batting average that barely surpasses .200. However, my main concerns are in the outfield. While a position like catcher can afford to be focused on defense first, most teams, and especially the Pirates, need offensive support from their outfielders.

We will start in right field. Gregory Polanco has been nothing but inconsistent over six seasons with the Pirates. Arguably, only one of his seasons has been above replacement level – 2018 when he hit 23 home runs and had a 123 wRC+. Since 2017, Polanco’s strikeout rate has increased from 14.6% to 21.9% to 29.3% in 2019. During this same stretch, his ISO has seen large fluctuations, he has posted below average defensive metrics, and has dealt with multiple injuries. No one doubts the upside, but ZiPs and other projection metrics are projecting another below average season.

All of that said, it remains to be seen if Polanco will be ready for Opening Day. He has not participated in any team activities the last three days, and no information on why he has not participated has been released.

In center field, a collection of players will be keeping the seat warm for 2021 or 2022 main stay Travis Swaggerty.  Jarrod Dyson and Guillermo Heredia are the two players that are most likely to man center field for the Pirates in 2020.

Dyson is the more experienced of the two players and is a defensive specialist. I have no doubt that Dyson will provide the Pirates with stellar defense, but Dyson has posted OPSs of .674, .539, and .633 over his last three seasons and posted below replacement level offensive WARs over that stretch. Heredia is truly Triple-A depth on most MLB rosters, never posting above a .700 OPS or .250 batting average in his four MLB seasons.

Bryan Reynolds may be the Pirates’ only hope in the outfield. Slashing .314/.377/.503 last season, he was a legitimate National League Rookie of the Year candidate. While I believe Reynolds is an outstanding player that will be in the Pirate outfield for many years to come, it would not surprise me if regression struck in 2020.

While I don’t agree with the stark regression being predicted by many website (due to Reynolds high BAbip in 2019 lining up with his minor league BAbips), I do think that a batting average of .290-.305 and a OPS of .800 is a bit more realistic. Even with a solid year from Reynolds though, the Pirate’s outfield will be far out-classed by the majority of their opponents.

Well there you have it – my 2020 Pittsburgh Pirate projections! Wait, actually, one last piece of business. I think a 32-28 record is what the Pittsburgh Pirates finish with this season. The new management and young blood of Reynolds, Newman, Hayes, and Tucker will boost the team’s spirits. I also think that the upgrades on defense and pitching staff make a noticeable difference in all the starters’ morale this season, leading to better numbers across the board.

Let’s Go Bucs!