Pittsburgh Pirates Breakout Candidates: JT Brubaker vs Bryse Wilson

JT Brubaker

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted JT Brubaker back in the 6th round of the 2015 draft. Brubaker steadily made his way up through the Pirates’ system, performing well at most levels. He finally got his shot in 2020 where he put up a 4.94 ERA, 4.08 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP in 47.1 innings. He started the year out in the bullpen but after a handful of injuries, Brubaker made his way into the starting rotation.

That’s where Brubaker pitched solely out of the starting rotation in 2021. He tossed a total of 124.1 innings, putting up an extremely poor 5.36 ERA, 5.16 FIP, but a solid 1.29 WHIP. Both Brubaker’s 24% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate were above average. However, he struggled heavily with long balls. He surrendered 28 for a 2.08 HR/9.

So what does Brubaker have going for him going into 2022?

As I’ve said before, Brubaker was the most unlucky pitcher for the Pirates last season. The right-hander had a 4.00 xFIP, 4.04 SIERA, and 4.34 DRA. Those all fall within 5-10% better than league average. Despite the number of home runs he gave up, you wouldn’t have guessed that his HR/9 would have been over 2.00 based on his batted ball rates.

Brubaker had a 42.8% ground ball rate and a 35.2% fly ball rate. His groundball rate is about league average and his flyball rate is a bit better than league average. His line drive rate sat at 22%, which was also slightly below average. Overall, his batted ball rate is about average. According to Baseball Savant, he has a similar profile to Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty, and Sean Manea. Among those four, Flaherty had the highest HR/9 at a very usable 1.38 mark.

Brubaker’s home run to fly ball ratio was extremely high. His 22.4% rate was nearly 10% higher than the league average. Since batted ball rates started to be tracked in 2002, the right-hander’s HR/FB ratio is the 3rd highest mark of all-time among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched.
Brubaker also wasn’t hit all that hard. Both his exit velocity (88.9 MPH, 48th percentile) and hard-hit rate (38.7%, 50th percentile) were about league average.

Given how Brubaker was never hit all that hard, nor was he fly ball prone, it’s very surprising he had given up so many home runs. If he can remain healthy next season, he’s a guy that could have a 3.80-4.00 ERA. He gets strikeouts at a solid rate, doesn’t allow many walks, and if he cuts down his HR/9 even to 1.30-1.50, he’d be a very solid pitcher.