Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Potential 2022 Rotation at Double-A Altoona
By Noah Wright
Kyle Nicolas
The Pirates acquired Kyle Nicolas in the deal that sent Jacob Stallings to the Miami Marlins. Nicolas is a high-ceiling power pitcher who needs to refine his stuff. However, the ability and talent are there for the right-hander.
Nicolas spent the 2021 season with Miami’s High-A and Double-A affiliates. Nicolas didn’t do all that great at High-A, recording a 5.28 ERA, 5.03 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP through his first 59.2 innings of the season. While he struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced (33.2% strikeout rate) while having a solid 9.3% walk rate, home runs were a massive issue. Nicolas had a 1.96 HR/9 due to a 45.9% FB% and insanely high 20.9% HR/FB rate.
Nicolas rose to Double-A, where he put up a much better 2.52 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP through 39 innings of work. While his strikeout rate dipped to 29.9%, he was still getting his fair share of batters out on strikes. Plus, he decreased his HR/9 to just 0.69. However, he saw his walk rate spike to 15%. Despite giving up fewer home runs, he saw his flyball rate skyrocket to 57%. This meant that his HR/FB rate took a nosedive, all the way to 6.1%. Considering his fly ball rate, .233 batting average on balls in play, and 5.01 xFIP, it is safe to say that Nicolas ran into some good luck.
But that doesn’t mean Nicolas is a lousy pitcher with no future. The right-hander has a great fastball which sits in the upper-90’s. He has hit 100 MPH before and can carry the velo late into games. His two breaking pitches are a curveball and slider. His slider sits in the upper-80’s and has reached the 90 MPH range before. Though his curveball isn’t on par with his well-above-average slider, it’s a pitch he has to work on to separate his slider. Though if he can, it’s a third average or better offering. Finally, there’s his changeup. While he has a feel for the offering, there’s a whole lot of work he needs to incorporate into it before using it often.
The second-round pick has some great stuff. He might need to improve his curve to be a starter long-term, but his ability to do so is there. He, after all, was a top 60 ranked prospect going into the 2020 draft and went 61st overall to the Marlins. Even at the worst, he has two offerings that would make him a great reliever.