Pittsburgh Pirates 2022 Staff Predictions: Jeff Cupp

Mitch Keller – Top 35 in WAR Among Pitchers

Mitch Keller has yet to play at the level we all expected years ago when the hype train began. This year, however, Keller came to camp with a new mindset and better stuff than he’s had in previous years. His fastball velocity topped at 100 MPH this spring, while sitting consistently above his 94 MPH average last year.

Keller has always had good stuff. The spin on his fastball and curve are above league averages and are a big reason why Keller became the Pirates no. 1 prospect in 2018. This spring Keller has shown that he is capable of being a very good MLB starter when he puts his best stuff on display. He gave up his first earned runs in his final start of spring, but was able to handle runner-on situations better than he’s done in the past.

Keller has struggled with walks in his early MLB career, however this spring has been hitting the strike zone more consistently, walking just 3 batters across 12 innings pitched. He’s also given up plenty of hard contact, something that we will likely see happen more often this season due to his increased velocity and working in the zone.

Despite that, I still see Keller being effective at keeping the ball in the park. Even if he gives up hard contact the game plan for Keller should still be to attack the zone and limit walks. If he sticks to his guns and comes after hitters full force Keller will find himself in the top 35 of pitchers throughout baseball, based on wins above replacement.

Here’s a projection: 165 innings, 3.75 ERA, 185 Ks, 55 walks, 18 HR, 3.5 WAR