2025 Pittsburgh Pirates predictions: Team MVP, breakout player, record and more

The Pittsburgh Pirates were probably hoping for a better season in 2024 than what they ended up with. After improving from 62 to 76 wins between 2022 and 2023, many hoped the Bucs could take another leap forward. After all, they’d get a full season of Oneil Cruz, Jared Jones was opening the year in the MLB rotation, and Paul Skenes would spend most of his 2024 campaign in the big leagues. The Pirates had mostly the same roster from 2023 as well, so it seemed reasonable to expect more wins with all those new players.

Unfortunately, the Pirates fell short - way short - of expectations. They won the same amount of games, despite what they had going for them in the rotation. Many players they were looking to rely on didn’t come close to replicating their 2023 success. Fans are uncertain about the 2025 team, to say the least. Still, as Opening Day arrives and hope springs eternal, here are my predictions for the upcoming season.

Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for 2025 MLB season

Pirates Team MVP: Oneil Cruz

After missing nearly all of 2023 due to a leg injury sustained after sliding into home plate, Oneil Cruz returned on a positive note. Cruz turned in some solid numbers, with a .259/.324/.446 triple-slash. He struck out at a 30.3% rate, but had a respectable 8.5% walk rate. All told, the slugger posted a .331 wOBA and 110 wRC+. Cruz also had a strong second half, with an .826 OPS, .354 wOBA, and 125 wRC+ from the start of July through the end of the season.

Known for his light-tower power, Cruz delivered 21 home runs with a .190 isolated slugging percentage, and there’s definitely potential in his bat for more home runs this season. He was in the 99th percentile of exit velocity (95.5 MPH) and the 97th percentile of barrel percentage (15.5%) last year. A 15%+ barrel rate means you’re much more likely to hit 30 home runs than not. There have been 110 seasons in the Statcast era (since 2015) where a player had a barrel rate of at least 15% in 400+ plate appearances. Eighty of those seasons were 30+ homer seasons (72.3%, to be exact).

Cruz was also a base running threat last year. He swiped 22 bases in 23 attempts, and became more aggressive on the base paths as the season went on. He attempted 16 steals from the start of July onward, and was successful all 16 times. Coming off a season-ending leg injury in 2023, it’s understandable why he wasn’t as aggressive on steals early in the year. Regardless, this made him just the 10th player in franchise history to have a 20/20 season in the integration era. 

Many are going to question Cruz’s defense in center field, but this is arguably the least worrying part of his game. Last season, Cruz averaged 39.5 feet covered in his jump, which represents the number of feet covered in the correct distance to a ball in the first three seconds. This was the highest in baseball last year, and almost a foot more than Jacob Young at 38.7 feet. For reference, Young had +19 outs above average last season. Cruz's route running was also efficient at +.04, according to Baseball Savant. Of course, his arm is powerful enough to throw out any runner trying to take an extra base on him.

Keep in mind, this represented Cruz learning center field. 2024 was the first time he ever played center field as a professional. He’s now had an entire offseason to get practice in (including playing in the Dominican Winter League) and is getting regular reps at the position in spring training. It’s not out of the question that he has the potential to win a Gold Glove in center field this year.

Even if Cruz produces like he did in 2024 with the bat, and pairs it with merely good defense in center field, he’ll be this team’s MVP. But he has the potential to be just the 14th center fielder in baseball history to reach a 30/30 season, and he could do it while winning a Gold Glove. That wouldn’t make him just the Pirates’ MVP, but a potential dark horse National League MVP candidate.

Pirates Team Cy Young: Paul Skenes

Duh, who else would it possibly be?

When the Pirates drafted Paul Skenes first overall in 2023, they hoped he’d quickly become an ace. He blew those expectations out of the water in 2024. If Skenes replicates anything close to what he did during last season, he’ll be the best pitcher in baseball. It was by far the best rookie season by a pitcher of all time, bar none. His utter dominance is something the Pirates haven’t ever seen in their franchise’s history.

Skenes pitched 133 innings, working to a microscopic 1.96 ERA, 2.44 FIP, and 0.95 WHIP. He struck out nearly a third of opponents with a 33.1% K%. He wasn’t up there just throwing gas, either. Skenes was dotting the zone and had just a 6.2% walk rate. When batters were able to put the bat on the ball vs. Skenes, it rarely ever resulted in good contact. He was in the 76th percentile of exit velocity (87.8 MPH), 87th percentile of barrel percentage (5.2%), and had just a 0.68 HR/9.

Skenes is the first rookie in baseball history to have an ERA+ over 210 in at least 20 starts since 1882, when Denny Driscoll put up a 218 mark. Skenes sat at 214. When Denny Driscoll was born, Abraham Lincoln would not become president for another six years. Skenes and Noah Syndergaard in 2015 are the only rookie starters to have both a K/9 over 10 (11.5 for Skenes) and a BB/9 under 2.5 (Skenes sat at 2.2).

Let’s say that Skenes’ ERA+ is 50% worse in 2025 compared to 2024. That’s still a 164 ERA+. Only two pitchers in 2024 threw at least 150 innings with an ERA+ over 160, and they were the Cy Young winners: Chris Sale for the Atlanta Braves and Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers.

Pirates Rookie of the Year: Bubba Chandler

A year ago, Baseball America ranked Paul Skenes as the ninth-best prospect in baseball, and we all know how well he went on to pitch in his rookie year. Now, the same outlet ranks Bubba Chandler as the game's seventh-best prospect. Chandler will likely get a promotion to the Major Leagues around the same time as Skenes did in 2024, and as long as he stays healthy (knock on wood), he should be another key piece of the Pirates’ rotation.

Chandler had an outstanding 3.08 ERA while striking out 30.9% of his opponents last year. After struggling with walks in previous seasons, Chandler only handed out a free pass to 8.6% of the batters he faced in 2024. Home runs were a non-issue as well, with an 0.68 HR/9. Chandler was one of only 28 pitchers in Minor League Baseball in 2024 with a K%/BB% over 20%, as well as a sub-3.50 ERA with at least 100 innings under their belt (Chandler totaled 119.2 IP).

Baseball America projects Chandler’s upper-90s four-seamer as a 70-grade offering. His changeup is his second-best pitch, which sits at a 60 grade. Those aren’t his only reliable offerings, as his slider also projects as above average. Only his curveball is considered a fringe offering. Chandler’s ability to control his stuff has also greatly improved over the last two seasons. He’s translated the athleticism he displayed at shortstop as a two-way player in high school and early on in his pro career to the mound.

The last time a team had players take home back-to-back Rookie of the Year trophies was in 2016 and 2017, when Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers took home the honors. Skenes/Chandler could repeat the same feat this season. Chandler not only has a strong chance of being the Pirates’ best rookie, but he may be the best rookie across all of the National League.

Pirates' Breakout Player: Justin Lawrence

Picking Nick Gonzales or Jared Jones here wouldn't be a bad option, either. Both are very talented and showed a lot of promise in 2024, and should be quality players for the 2025 Bucs. But we're going to go with a more dark horse breakout candidate in Justin Lawrence here. The Bucs acquired Lawrence from the Rockies after he was DFA’d. He hasn’t produced many good numbers in Major League Baseball, with just a 5.43 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 1.61 WHIP. 

For pitching his entire career with the Rockies, he has surprisingly not been home run prone, with an 0.79 HR/9 rate, helped in part by a 50.9% ground ball rate and a 5.8% barrel percentage. Lawrence has a 21.3% strikeout rate, but consistently struggles with walks and has a 12.5% free pass percentage.

Lawrence’s numbers on the road aren’t horrible, unsurprisingly. He has a 3.86 ERA and has held opponents to a .676 OPS when he is the guest, but walks still follow the right-handed reliever, with a 13.8% BB%. He has also only struck out 15.9% of opposing batters on the road, compared to 24.5% when at Coors Field.

Lawrence has poor career numbers, and while he has a solid ERA when he is a guest, he has poor peripherals. So what does he have going for him? Coors Field messed with Lawrence in a way not many talk about. His sinker and sweeper can gain or lose up to five inches of break between playing in Coors Field versus playing on the road. Having one stable environment where he doesn’t have to constantly adjust on a week-to-week basis because Coors Field messes with his pitches is going to do him a whole lot of good. 

Just imagine if Paul Skenes suddenly lost five MPH off his fastball because he was playing on the road. He’d never be able to get a good feel for any of his pitches. This is what Justin Lawrence has been suffering through for his entire MLB career. Neither PNC Park, nor any other environment in baseball aside from Coors, does this sort of stuff. Lawrence’s ability to locate, his feel for his pitch mix, and his performance as a whole are going to improve if he finds one steady environment. 

Pirates Comeback Player of the Year: David Bednar

David Bednar entered 2024 with high expectations, and for a good reason. He was a two-time All-Star in 2022 and 2023, and had a 2.25 ERA, 2.56 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP across his first three seasons with the Bucs. With numbers that consistently strong, the Renegade was expected to lock down close games in the ninth inning all summer. Unfortunately, Bednar instead had the worst season of his pro career.

Bednar pitched to just a 5.77 ERA, 4.80 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP in only 57.2 innings of work. His strikeout rate, which sat at over 30% the previous three seasons, plummeted to an unimpressive 22.1%. Walks became a huge issue, with a 10.7% BB%, but home runs were Bednar’s biggest problem. His HR/9 and barrel rate from 2021 through 2023 were only 0.60 and 5.9%, respectively. In 2024, he saw those rise to 1.40 and 9.2% each.

But it’s not as if Bednar had a worrying drop in velocity or diminished stuff. His four-seamer averaged 97.3 MPH, a single-season career high, while his splitter and curveball sat at the same velocity as in 2023. On top of that, none of his pitches lost movement; in fact, he actually gained some. Stuff+ put him at 110, another single-season career best. This is a stat that measures how good a pitcher’s stuff is based on multiple factors, and puts it on a similar scale as something like wRC+ or OPS+, where 100 is always average.

Bednar came out of the gates slow because of a lat injury that only held him to just 30 pitches in spring training. In each of his first three seasons with the Pirates, he threw 135, 98, and 94 pitches each spring training campaign. He was also placed on the IL in late June, and was supposedly tipping some of his pitches. At the time of writing this, he has already thrown 86 pitches this spring. 

Bednar’s stuff looks as good as it’s ever been in spring training. He’s healthy and pitching, and that’s already one positive he has over 2024. If he resolved his pitch tipping, Bednar will be back to normal in 2025. 

Pirates' Record Prediction: 85-77

Is this bold and maybe too optimistic? Yes, I’ll be the first to admit that. But let’s look at all that the Pirates have going for them. The rotation is in great shape. Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones are one of the best 1-through-3’s in baseball. Bubba Chandler will soon join the rotation, and plenty more depth is coming up through the system.

The bullpen has plenty of talent to be good in 2025 as well. A year ago, David Bednar and Colin Holderman looked like a quality eighth/ninth inning duo. In terms of ability and talent, nothing has changed there. The Pirates also benefit from Dennis Santana breaking out in 2024, and have added lefties Tim Mayza and Caleb Ferguson, with Carmen Mlodzinski, Kyle Nicolas, and Justin Lawrence also on hand. One thing is for sure about the bullpen: it has a high ceiling, albeit with a questionable floor.

Thankfully, the Pirates definitely have options to mitigate some of the bullpen’s struggles. They could always call upon right-handers Braxton Ashcraft or Mike Burrows and slot them into the pen, as both are on the 40-man roster. Hunter Barco is another one who could be an option to start games or come out of the bullpen. 

The lineup is where many are worried, and reasonably so. The Pirates only made one big addition this offseason, and that’s Spencer Horwitz. While Horwitz is a good hitter, he’s only one guy, and he isn't healthy to begin the season after having surgery to address a "chronic" wrist issue. The Pirates are admittedly relying heavily on Matt Hague to work some magic, and a handful of factors outside their control, like Ke’Bryan Hayes’ back holding up better.

But let’s look at it like this: the Pirates’ hitting doesn’t have to be elite for them to be an 84-to-85-win team. The pitching will do the heavy lifting, and they can definitely get by with that. The Pirates themselves know this. During their last playoff run from 2013 through 2015, they had a team 102 wRC+ and an ERA+ of 111. Let the pitching do its thing, and if the bats are at least average, the Pirates could potentially be in the Wild Card hunt, at the very least.