3 late-round picks from the Pirates' 2023 draft class coming off promising seasons

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ 2023 draft class could be one that carries the franchise for a while. Paul Skenes is doing most of the lifting right now, but Mitch Jebb is coming off a encouraging season, as are Zander Mueth and Carlson Reed. They also traded four players from this draft class for four players who are currently in the Major Leagues.

Skenes, Jebb, Mueth, and Reed are three players from the Pirates’ ‘23 class that get talked about the most (especially Skenes, as he awaits some offseason hardware), but the Buccos also made some later-round picks that put up promising performances in 2024. Each player listed here was taken after the 10th round, but is coming off a quality season that deserves recognition.

3 late-round picks from the Pirates' 2023 draft class coming off promising seasons

Khristian Curtis

The Pirates potentially got a steal in the 2023 draft when they took right-hander Khristian Curtis in the 12th round out of Arizona State. Although Curtis was taken so late (347th overall pick), he was ranked fairly high by draft rankings. MLB Pipeline had him as a top 200 draft prospect, coming in at 197th, but Baseball America had him even higher, at an impressive 126.

Curtis got a look against pro batters this year, and his numbers on the season were solid, albeit unimpressive. He put up a 4.06 ERA, 4.84 FIP, and 1.34 WHIP in 75.1 IP. Curtis struck out just over a quarter of his batters faced, clocking in with a 25.4% K% with a roughly league average 12.2% walk rate. Unfortunately, he was home run prone, with a 1.16 HR/9 rate. He had some good peripherals under the hood, including a whiff rate over 30% at 31.7%, and induced an 87.2 MPH exit velocity.

Most of Curtis’ struggles this season were early into the year, though. From the start of June through the end of the season, Curtis had a much stronger 3.14 ERA, 3.42 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP. He was much better at limiting walks, with a 10.2% BB%, and struck out batters more frequently, logging a 26% K%. Curtis was also much less home run prone, with an 0.42 HR/9, 86.4 MPH average exit velocity, and a microscopic 2.4% barrel rate. Batters swung and missed at his offerings nearly a third of the time. It is worth noting that Curtis did miss July, and pitched 43 frames from the start of June through his final game, making this a small, yet promising sample.

Curtis has both solid stuff and a varied arsenal. His four-seamer rides through the zone very well with only 12.8 inches of vertical break, along with 8.8 inches of arm-side run. The offering also has some impressive velocity, sitting around 95 MPH and topping out at 98 this season. Curtis also has a two-seam variant of his fastball. He can throw this pitch slightly harder, topping out closer to 99, and while it has less drop, it has a lot more horizontal movement with 13.6 inches of break. 

Curtis’ go-to breaking ball is a mid-80s slider that averages out with nearly 40 inches of drop and 4.5 inches of break. He also has a second breaking ball, an upper-70s curve with 51 inches of drop/seven inches of break. Curtis’ cutter is a low-90s pitch with only 1.5 inches of break, but around 25 inches of drop. Lastly, there’s his mid-80s changeup that can average out with over 17 inches of horizontal movement. Curtis used each of his pitches at least 5% of the time last year.

Curtis’ wide variety of pitches could keep him in a starting role long-term. He does need to sharpen up his control, however. Worst-case scenario is that he gets moved to the bullpen, where some of his shortcomings with his command can be hidden while his stuff can play up. He’ll be put to the test next year at Greensboro, but his strong finish to 2024 and his packed arsenal will definitely make him a name to watch next season.

Curtis is already ranked as the Pirates’ 27th-best prospect by MLB Pipeline, and he could further climb the rankings with another promising year in 2025.

Garrett McMillan

While top prospects like Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington have deservedly gotten a ton of attention for their strong seasons, one name that hasn’t gotten nearly as much praise for the numbers he put up is right-hander Garrett McMillan. He ended up with one of the best performances among all Pirates’ minor league arms.

McMillian pitched 70.1 innings for both Bradenton and Greensboro this past season. He worked as a long-relief/spot-starter type, making four starts across 36 total appearances. Only 11 of those appearances lasted one or fewer innings; in total, McMillian worked to a 2.18 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP. He had a healthy 28.2% strikeout rate, but only dished out a free pass 7% of the time and allowed a home run at just an 0.51-per-9-innings rate.

McMillan’s performance stood out in the Pirates’ pitching-loaded system. Among the Pirates’ young arms who threw at least 50 innings, McMillan had the second-best ERA and FIP, and finished fourth in xFIP (3.30). He also ranked top ten in the system in strikeout rate, walk rate, K:BB ratio, and HR/9. WHIP was the only noteworthy rate stat in which McMillan did not rank among the top ten.

The Pirates selected McMillan two rounds after they took Curtis in the 14th round. Unlike Curtis, McMillan is not a hard-throwing prospect. His fastball only averaged out at 91.7 MPH for Bradenton, topping out at 94, though it did have some decent ride. McMillan’s slider sat around 82-83 MPH with about 37 inches of drop. His curveball had about 50 inches of drop while sitting 80 MPH. McMillan’s changeup had similar velocity to his curveball, but with 34.6 inches of drop and 13.7 inches of break. Along with these four offerings, McMillan would occasionally fold in a cutter and sinker, although both offerings were used less than 3% of the time, with the latter being used less than 1% of the time.

McMillan isn’t ranked among any noteworthy Pirates prospect lists, but his strong season should grab the attention of fans. He did very well after getting promoted to Greensboro. The real challenge is when he eventually gets a look at Altoona, but he definitely got off to a strong start to his pro career.

Magdiel Cotto

Magdiel Cotto was taken before Curtis in the draft. He showed some promise in his final season at the University of Kentucky and headed into the draft as atop 300 draft prospect according Baseball America (ranked 267th). The southpaw showed off some potential at Bradenton before stumbling in a small sample size at Greensboro.

Cotto pitched to a 2.63 ERA, 4.06 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP throughout his first 48 innings of the year. He struck out 24.4% of opponents with an 0.38 HR/9. Cotto was a groundball machine, inducing a batted ball in the dirt 59.3% of the time and carrying a barrel rate well below 5% at 3.4%. However, Cotto struggled with limiting walks, as he handed out a free pass 12.4% of the time.

Cotto ended his season with Greensboro, where he pitched seven innings in six appearances. It was an uneventful ending, as Cotto allowed six earned runs, walked a duo of batters, and struck out six. He also allowed two home runs in the small sample size.

Cotto uses a four-pitch arsenal. He throws both a four-seam and two-seam fastball. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging out around 92-93 MPH with both of his fastballs. Both pitches also have around 21-22 inches of drop. However, his two-seamer has much better run, with 11.6 inches of break. His slider hits the low-80s, with about 11 inches of break and 38 inches of drop. Still, it induced a ton of swings and misses with a 55.7% whiff rate. Cotto’s mid-80s changeup had 36.3 inches of drop/14 inches of break.

Cotto’s season didn’t end on a high note, but it was a small sample size, and most of his time was spent at Bradenton, where he put up some decent numbers. If the lefty can pitch more like he did at A-Ball as he moves through the minor leagues, he could eventually play a role in a future Pirates bullpen. After all, decent lefty relievers are always highly valued.

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