3 Pirates breakout candidates that will be key to their 2025 success

The Pittsburgh Pirates are hoping to break out of the 76-win rut they’ve stuck been in. With Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in play for a full season, along with a (hopefully) healthy campaign forcenter fielder Oneil Cruz, they have a good chance.

Fueled by those stars, many hoped they could become at least a .500 team in 2024. That didn’t come to be, however. The Pirates may have a better team now compared to a year ago, but still, they could benefit a whole lot if these three players break out in 2025.

Each showed potential to be a quality contributor in 2024 and is trending in the right direction. Now, it's time for them to take the next steps, and a firm, unassailable breakout from each of these players in 2025 could be paramount to the Pirates’ success in 2025.

3 Pirates breakout candidates who could redefine 2025 season

3. Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales was one of the first top prospects the Pirates acquired at the start of their rebuild, selecting him seventh overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. Gonzales ascended throughout their minor league system and reached the big leagues in 2023. It was a small sample size of only 128 plate appearances, but Gonzales put up a paltry .616 OPS, .268 wOBA, and 63 wRC+. He struck out at a 28.1% rate with a meager 4.7% walk rate.

Thankfully, Gonzales looked a whole lot better in 2024. He turned in a .270/.311/.398 triple-slash, .307 wOBA, and 94 wRC+. Gonzales still only walked in 4.7% of his 387 plate appearances, but he significantly cut down on his swing and miss. His K% and whiff rate went from 28.1% and 32.4% in ‘23 to just 19.1% and 24.9% in ‘24. However, he still only hit seven homers with a .128 isolated slugging percentage.

Gonzales also was out of action in late July/most of August, which followed right after his worst month of the season, when he had a .533 OPS in July.

There are still numbers under the hood that suggest Gonzales can not only be a solid hitter in 2025, but might take steps forward as well. He was in the 50th percentile or greater in xwOBA (.317, 50th percentile), xSLG% (.407, 54th percentile), and xBA (.270, 84th percentile) last season. His 7.9% barrel percentage was also slightly above average, sitting in the 51st percentile. The only noteworthy batted ball statistic in which he was below average was exit velocity at 87.9 MPH, but that still isn’t far off from the league average mark of 88.5 MPH.

Baseball Savant, which gives player comparisons based on batted ball profile, compares Gonzales fairly positively. Of the five players they compare Gonzales to in 2024, three are MLB regulars, including Josh Naylor, Trea Turner, and Jonah Heim (all in 2024). The other two are 2023 Reese McGuire and Oswald Peraza, neither of which played a full season in ‘23. 

Gonzales doesn’t have to be a Silver Slugger to be valuable - he had +2 outs above average at second base - but there’s definitely potential improvement on the horizon for Gonzales. Him breaking out would be a huge thing for the Pirates’ lineup. Even if he can put up a .730-.750 OPS and 100-110 wRC+, he would be a big help for the offense.

2. Kyle Nicolas

The Pirates’ 2024 bullpen was a letdown, but right-hander Kyle Nicolas was one of the few bright spots. Originally acquired from the Miami Marlins in the Jacob Stallings trade, Nicolas transitioned to the bullpen in 2023. He got off to a rocky start in 2024, but turned things around and showed plenty of potential throughout the season.

All told, Nicolas pitched to a 3.95 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and 1.50 WHIP. He put up an above-average 22.6% K% and 0.66 HR/9 but was prone to hard contact. Nicolas was hit for a 90 MPH exit velocity and 8.5% barrel percentage. Plus, he struggled with walks from time to time and handed out a free pass to 12.8% of the batters he faced.

There’s no question Nicolas has nasty stuff. He sat 97.4 MPH with great extension off the mound, making his already hard fastball look even faster out of the hand. Nicolas has also reworked his curveball in spring training. Last year, he threw it around 85-86 MPH, but now he is tossing it around 82-83 MPH, adding about seven inches of vertical drop and five inches of horizontal break to it. It was the worst pitch in his arsenal last season, per Location+, so reworking it may help him hit his spots better. His low-90s slider was highly effective last year, holding opponents to a .297 xwOBA.

The Pirates have a handful of young flamethrowers who showed a ton of potential in 2024, but Nicolas breaking out would be huge for the Pirates’ bullpen. It will come down to Nicolas consistently hitting his spots. If he continues on the trend he is on, he might be one of the Bucs’ go-to high-leverage relievers by the end of the season, setting up games for David Bednar and getting save opportunities when The Renegade is not available. 

1. Joey Bart

Joey Bart sort of already broke out last season. He appeared in about half of the Pirates’ games in 2024, tallying 80 appearances, and would have reached more had it not been for an injury in June that kept him out for about a month. However, Bart needs to have a full-season breakout and prove he can do it while collecting 350-400+ plate appearances, and it’s quite possible he can do that in 2025.

After the Pirates acquired Bart from the SF Giants in April of last year, he went on a tear for the Bucs and claimed the catching job for himself. Across 282 plate appearances, Bart slashed .265/.337/.462 with a .347 wOBA and 121 wRC+. Bart provided plus power, going yard 13 times with a .196 isolated slugging percentage and 9.4% barrel rate. He massively improved both his strikeout and walk rates in 2024, going from 36.4%/6.4% with the Giants to 24.9%/7.9% with the Pirates.

Bart made much better swing decisions, lowering his chase rate from 32.2% with the Giants to 26% with the Pirates. He also cut his swinging strike rate from 16.5% with SF to 10.5% with Pittsburgh. Bart performed at an above-average level in the eyes of xwOBA (.330) and xSLG% (.430). Beyond an offensive repeat, what would really help is if Bart broke out with the glove in 2025.

Bart had just -4 defensive runs saved and -3.5 framing runs last year. His throws from behind the dish averaged 84.7 MPH, ranking him an impressive 16th out of 51 qualified catchers who had 20+ attempts to second and one towards third in 2024. His pop time sat at two seconds, in the 20th percentile and towards the low end of the spectrum. For what it’s worth, Bart was considered an above-average defensive backstop by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline in 2022 prior to graduating prospect status, so there is definitely potential for improvement in this facet of his game.