3 Pirates players who shouldn’t be on the 40-man roster by spring training

The Pittsburgh Pirates' 40-man roster currently includes 38 players (including Elvis Alvarado). If the Pirates add more than two more MLB players during the rest of this offseason -- by either signing them to major league contracts, or by acquiring someone who is already on a 40-man roster in trade, they'll have to DFA, trade, or release a player they currently have. 

There's still a lot of offseason left. The free agent market continues to hold plenty of realistic options that would significantly improve the Pirates' roster, as does the trade market. Acquiring three or more players and adding them to the 40-man roster between now and the start of spring training seems like a total possibility (and maybe a necessity). If and when that time comes, who are some players fans shouldn't expect to be on the roster when the preseason begins?

3 Pirates who won't be on 40-man roster by spring training

Alika Williams

The Pirates acquired Alika Williams from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for relief pitcher Robert Stephenson during the 2023 season. While Williams was once a first-round pick, he certainly hasn't lived up to the expectations of being selected 37th overall in 2020. He has been a fine defender, but that's about where the positives end for Williams.

Williams has provided woeful offensive production in the major leagues. In 208 plate appearances, Williams has hit .202/.257/.271 with a .237 wOBA and 44 wRC+. He has yet to hit a home run and has an isolated slugging percentage well below .100 at .069. Williams has walked at a 5.8% clip with a poor 27.4% K%. Williams has shown bottom-of-the-barrel raw power, with just an 85.3 MPH average exit velocity and 3.6% barrel percentage. 

Williams cut his strikeout rate down from 31.3% in '23 to just 22.9% in '24, but this also caused his walk rate to drop from 8% to 3.1%. On top of that, it didn't improve his overall offense. His OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ all remained nearly identical between the two seasons.

At the very least, Williams has hit well at Triple-A. He owns a .308/.384/.455 triple-slash in 334 plate appearances over the last two seasons for Indianapolis. Williams hasn't struck out at a high rate, with a 16.8% K% and a whiff rate clocking in at 20.8%. That has amounted to a .376 wOBA and 118 wRC+. However, despite the strong numbers, the lack of enough raw power to make an impact is still very evident. Williams has just an 85.3 MPH exit velocity and a 3.4% barrel rate at the level.

Williams is a speedy, defense-first middle infielder, of which there are dozens. The Pirates already have a better version in Jared Triolo on the active roster. He's an even better defender and can play more positions than Williams can. On top of that, he hit much better than Williams has, and provided playable offense at the end of the 2024 campaign.

Tristan Gray

This is Tristan Gray's second stint in the Pirates' organization. He was originally a 13th-round pick by the Bucs in 2017. That offseason, the Pirates traded him, along with reliever Daniel Hudson, to the Tampa Bay Rays for outfielder Corey Dickerson. Gray hasn't shown much throughout his pro career. Gray has 17 MLB games under his belt with the Rays, Miami Marlins, and Oakland Athletics, but has just five hits, one home run, and 16 Ks in 36 plate appearances.

Gray spent most of his 2024 season with the Marlins and A's Triple-A affiliates. He hit a combined .251/.322/.467 with a .344 wOBA, and 100 wRC+. Gray walked 8.7% of the time with a mediocre 25.8% K% in 469 plate appearances. Gray struggled to make contact, too, with a 30.7% whiff rate. Still, he did manage a respectable 90.2 MPH average exit velocity and 10.3% barrel percentage. He ended the year with 19 home runs and a .215 isolated slugging percentage.

Gray has pretty much been just a one-tool player throughout his minor-league career. To his credit, he does know how to hit the ball out of the park. He had back-to-back 30+ home run seasons in 2022 and 2023 with the Rays' Triple-A team while putting up a 90 MPH exit velocity and 11.5% barrel rate. Unfortunately, Gray struck out over 30% of the time in both seasons, and swung-and-missed nearly 40% of the time (37.9%, to be exact).

Gray is an okay depth piece, given he started multiple games at every infield position in 2024. Defensive metrics like his abbreviated work in the field. However, he's never projected as anything significantly better than average with the glove. At the very best, he's a 55-grade defender, given that his solid glove work in the major leagues has all come in an extremely small sample size.

Gray is likely to be one of the first players to come off the roster when the Pirates acquire someone and need another 40-man roster spot. There are plenty of players who can hit the ball hard, and very few of them will ever make enough contact to make it count. Plus, the Pirates have more options who are just as good, if not better, than Gray. Given that his defense isn't anything special either, Gray doesn't have a good fit on the Pirates' roster.

Enmanuel Valdez

The Pirates acquired Enmanuel Valdez this offseason in a trade that mostly went unnoticed. The infielder hasn't done much with the bat in his major league career, slashing .235/.286/.400 with a .296 wOBA and 84 wRC+ through 372 plate appearances with the Boston Red Sox the past two seasons. Valdez has struck out in 24.2% of his plate appearances, but has drawn a walk at a mediocre 6.7% rate.

Valdez has shown he has some potential with the bat. Last season, he put up an 89.4 MPH average exit velocity and 9.2% barrel rate. Both are above the league average of 88.8 MPH and 7.9%, respectively. He has put up an xSLG% of at least .420 in the last two years. Valdez also does not swing and miss frequently, with a whiff rate of 22.1% in 2024. 

But Valdez has to hit to provide any sort of value. He has spent most of his career at second base, where he has -11 defensive runs saved and -12 outs above average in only 824 innings at the keystone. Valdez doesn't have a strong arm and was in the sixth percentile of arm strength last year at 74.6 MPH. Only Ozzie Albies averaged out with worse arm strength at second base. He is not a very range-y player, either, and was in the 26th percentile of sprint speed.

Valdez is easily one of the worst defenders in the sport. There have only been 18 players in the last two seasons with double-digit negative DRS and OAA. Valdez, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, and Amed Rosario are the only ones with less than 1,000 innings in the field. Schwarber and Soler both see most of their playing time at DH and make up for the lack of fielding by providing high-end power production. Rosario, meanwhile, has been on four different teams and a part of five transactions over the last two seasons.

Valdez definitely has more potential with the bat and a better chance of providing offensive value than both Williams and Gray, but he's next to unplayable in the field. If Valdez had the sort of upside with the stick that Schwarber or Soler do, then it wouldn't be an issue. But unless his fielding improves significantly, he's still going to be a sub-replacement level player, even if he hits at a league-average level.