3 Pirates players who will exceed expectations in 2025

Last year, the Pittsburgh Pirates brought in several unheralded players who well exceeded the initial expectations attached to them. Dennis Santana was a waiver claim who became one of their go-to late-inning arms by the end of the season. Joey Bart was originally acquired to serve as catching depth, but is heading into 2025 with the inside track on the starting catcher job. One could even argue Paul Skenes went above and beyond. While everyone expected him to be great, who expected him to have the greatest season ever by a rookie pitcher?

Heading into 2025, the Pirates plan to employ a handful of players who do not have high expectations set upon them. However, they certainly have the potential to not only play above said expectations, but exceed them by a fair margin. These three, in particular, have the most potential to do so.

3 Pirates players with most potential to exceed expectations in 2025

Tommy Pham

A lot of fans were not thrilled when the Pirates signed Tommy Pham. After all, Pham batted a meager .248/.305/.368 with a .297 wOBA and 91 wRC+ across 478 plate appearances last season. He walked at a below-average 7.3% rate with a roughly average 22.2% strikeout percentage. 2024 also marked the first full season of his career in which he failed to hit at least 15 home runs, with just nine dingers and a .120 isolated slugging percentage.

Pham’s recent numbers aren’t great, but his stuff under the hood paints a much better picture. Pham still had an above-average 90.4 MPH exit velocity (70th percentile). However, his barrel rate fell from 10.7% to just 7.2% between 2023 and 2024. His 18.7% chase percentage was one of the lowest in all of baseball. He was just slightly behind the eagle-eyed Juan Soto, who finished at 18.3%. 

Pham was still above the 50th percentile of all expected numbers. That includes a .319 xwOBA (52nd percentile), expected batting average at .263 (76th percentile), and xSLG% at .407 (54th percentile). Recent history shows that if he keeps up a similar exit velo, launch angle (11 degrees), and whiff rate (22.5%), 2024 may be a fluke for Pham.

Over the last three seasons, there have been 56 instances of a batter having a 90+ MPH exit velo, a whiff rate below 25%, and a launch angle of at least 10 degrees in 400+ PAs. Tommy Pham, Andrew Vaughn, and Patrick Bailey in 2024, and Carlos Santana in 2022, are the only instances of a sub-.310 wOBA. The average wOBA between these 56 seasons is .352.

Hitting the ball hard, not swinging and missing often, and maintaining a decent launch angle is typically a recipe for success. Pham was above average in each of these categories in 2024. Sure, he is a year older and in his late 30s, but there’s a lot of evidence to point to a rebound in 2025 for the veteran outfielder.

Joey Wentz

The Pirates acquired Joey Wentz late last season off waivers from the Detroit Tigers. A former top prospect, Wentz was in the midst of an unimpressive season with a 5.37 ERA, 4.50 FIP, and 1.57 WHIP across 55.1 innings for the Tigers in 2024. His 23.6% strikeout rate was solid, but walks were an issue (10.6% BB%), as were home runs (1.30 HR/9). Mix in an unimpressive 88.8 MPH exit velocity and 8.5% barrel rate, and it was no surprise Wentz was prone to clogging the bases and being hit hard once they were full.

But after the Pirates acquired the lefty at the start of September, Wentz went on to allow just two earned runs in a dozen innings. He struck out 13 opponents and did not allow a single walk. Wentz did not get hit hard, either, unlike during his time with the Tigers. He had just an 84 MPH exit velocity and allowed zero barreled batted balls, although he still handed out a half-dozen free passes.

Wentz changed the way he pitched to batters after arriving in Pittsburgh. He lived further up in the zone with his fastball, which has an above-average vertical break. His changeup was used down and in to left-handed batters/down and away to right-handed batters more frequently. The southpaw also put his curveball in the zone more often, and utilized his cutter down and into righties/down and away to lefties.

Overall, Wentz finished the year with above-average marks in multiple Baseball Savant stats, including xERA (3.70, 62nd percentile), xBA (.223, 73rd percentile), average exit velocity (88.1 MPH, 71st percentile), both whiff (29.6%, 80th percentile) and chase rate (29.6%, 59th percentile), and barrel percentage (7.2%, 61st percentile). The Pirates have had some recent success turning small-time pickups like Wentz into quality relievers like Ryan Borucki and Dennis Santana, so Wentz has a decent chance of being their next breakout reliever in 2025.

Billy Cook

One of the acquisitions the Pirates made at the 2024 trade deadline was Billy Cook. An outfield/first base prospect from the Baltimore Orioles, Cook displayed some outstanding defense in his brief MLB debut. He had +6 defensive runs saved and +2 outs above average in just 85 innings in the outfield grass. He is one of only three outfielders with at least +5 DRS in less than 100 innings in the outfield since the start of the 2010s.

However, while he far exceeded expectations with the glove, his bat fell short. On the plus side, he hit three home runs in only 49 plate appearances while also posting an elite 92.6 MPH exit velocity and 13.3% barrel percentage. Still, he had just 11 hits in total, struck out 19 times, and didn’t draw a single walk. Cook had a chase rate of 36.9% and an even worse 39.8% whiff rate.

Cook’s hit tool isn’t known to be his strong suit, but he still hit very well at Triple-A. In 421 plate appearances for both the Bucs and O’s Triple-A affiliates, Cook turned in a .273/.373/.485 triple-slash, .379 wOBA, and 123 wRC+. Strikeouts were still a relevant part of his game, with a 24.7% K% and 28.9% whiff rate, but he drew plenty of walks with an 11.9% free pass percentage. Among the 132 batters at Triple-A with at least 400 plate appearances, Cook’s .336 xwOBA was the 23rd best.

Of course, aside from good Triple-A metrics, the Pirates can also maximize his talents by playing Cook in favorable situations. Cook batted .299/.429/.567 against left-handed pitching last season. His .382 xwOBA was the fifth-best mark among batters with at least 100 plate appearances vs LHP last season at Triple-A. He walked far more often against lefties with a 16.8% BB rate, although he still had an unimpressive 23.5% K% and 27.9% whiff rate. With Spencer Horwitz, who can crush right-handed pitching, on the team, Cook may see most of his playing time against LHP when he is playing first base.

Cook still needs to make improvements in his plate discipline, no doubt, but the Pirates brought in a hitting coach in Matt Hague who is known to help in that area. With Cook’s defense, base running, and power potential, he could sneakily be one of the Pirates’ better players next year. He can man all three outfield positions and first base. He’s going to be much more valuable than your average short-side platoon bat.