3 Pirates prospect favorites who are finding their groove after tough starts

The minor-league season is well under way, as we’re over a month into the campaign. The Pittsburgh Pirates have plenty of prospects in their system who are doing exceptionally well. Bubba Chandler looks everything like the top-10 prospect Baseball America currently ranks him as. Hunter Barco just set a franchise record with 25 2/3 straight scoreless innings to open the year. Both pitching prospects have been great from the start.

Further below the surface, though, the Pirates are starting to see some other notable minor leaguers finding their groove. All three of these players have been red hot recently after some early struggles.

3 Pirates prospects who've heated up after cold starts

Mitch Jebb

Mitch Jebb was the Pirates’ first pick after selecting Paul Skenes during the 2023 draft. 2024 was Jebb’s first extended exposure against professional pitching, and while it took him a minute to adjust, he eventually made the changes he needed to. From the start of June through the end of the season, the second-round pick batted .284/.382/.387 and had a 120 wRC+. He only struck out in 15.2% of his plate appearances and drew walks at a healthy 13% rate.

So far, Jebb has carried over a similar level of production to Double-A Altoona this year. He is off to a solid start to 2025, slashing .299/.409/.338 with a .358 wOBA and 123 wRC+. Jebb has been especially good recently, striking out fewer times (seven) than he’s reached via walk (eight), and is batting over .400 (.408) over his last 59 plate appearances.

Notably, Jebb is drawing walks at a rate you usually don’t see from contact hitters. His BB% sits at 16%, which is an improvement over last season; the adjustments at the plate he made at Greensboro are evident. Compare that number to former Pirates’ All-Star Josh Harrison, a contact bat who never posted a walk rate over 6% in any non-COVID shortened Major League season. Of course, Jebb's work came at Double-A, but typically, high contact/low strikeout batters also have a low walk rate. Three-time batting champ Luis Arraez only had a 7.7% walk rate as a minor-leaguer in the Minnesota Twins’ system.

Jebb being able to draw walks, but still maintaining the same aggressive in-zone approach that you’d see from guys who hit .300 is very promising. It’s even more promising once you consider he’s now being this productive at Double-A. This combination of high batting average and high walk rate will be very valuable, given how fast he is. Reaching base at a well above-average rate with his speed could be a game-changer at the top of the Pirates’ lineup, and so far, it has been for Altoona. He’s scored 10 runs in 21 games and is 12/13 in stolen base attempts.

Po-Yu Chen

Po-Yu Chen is in his second go-around at Altoona. Last year, he pitched to the tune of a 4.03 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP across 134.1 innings. Chen carried a 7.5% walk rate and 0.89 HR/9 ratio. However, his strikeout rate fell from 24.5% in 2023 to only 16.8% last season. Chen did better after April, posting a 3.54 ERA and 4.00 FIP from May 1 onward.

Chen hasn’t just continued his solid production from the start of May last season to the end of the year, but has gotten better. In 22.1 innings of work, Chen owns a 2.82 ERA, 2.88 FIP, and 0.84 WHIP. Chen’s strikeout rate is back up, sitting at 27.3%. If he continues to strike out batters at this rate throughout the rest of the season, it will be his highest single-season K%.

Chen’s K% isn’t the only peripheral that shows clear improvement from last season. His walk rate is also down to 5.7%, the 17th-lowest among the 79 total qualified Double-A pitchers. His K%-BB% of 21.6% also ranks fairly high among his fellow Double-A pitchers at 27th. The right-hander has only allowed a single home run.

Chen has been exceptional lately. His last three starts have yielded 15.2 innings and only two earned runs. He’s only handed out a pair of walks with 13 Ks. Opponents aren’t getting hits off of Chen either, with an opponent batting average of .167. None of the nine hits Chen has allowed have left the park.

There’s not much left for Chen to prove at Altoona in his age-23 season. He deserves a bump to Triple-A Indianapolis. Once the Pirates decide to start calling up top pitching prospects like Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, and Mike Burrows, Chen should be at Indianapolis. With how well he is performing to start 2025, it’s very possible we see him in the majors.

Axiel Plaz

Axiel Plaz finally made his way up to Bradenton in 2024, but the results were mixed. He had no trouble hitting for power or drawing walks. Plaz went yard 15 times in only 281 plate appearances with a .231 isolated slugging percentage while taking a free pass 11.4% of the time. But hitting for any contact seemed to elude Plaz. He struck out 29.2% of the time with a 32% whiff rate and a .203 batting average.

Plaz only has 91 plate appearances under his belt to start 2025, but the young backstop is hitting a lot differently than last season. He is slashing .301/.389/.434 with a .400 wOBA and 137 wRC+. Plaz has just a pair of home runs on the year with a .133 isolated slugging percentage. He’s seen his walk rate drop to 7.4% in the small sample size, but he’s hitting much more like a young contact hitter than a young power bat.

While Plaz’s BB% has gotten lower, so has his strikeout rate ... by a lot. His K% is currently sitting at 14.7%, which is the fifth lowest of any minor-league catcher right now with at least 80 plate appearances. His whiff rate has also taken a step in the right direction, sitting at 27.2%. Plaz also isn’t getting terribly lucky, either, with a .379 xwOBA. 

Unfortunately, Plaz just ended an eight-game hitting streak on May 3, but he still reached base via walk, so he’s kept an on-base streak alive through nine games. Throughout these nine games, Plaz has 38 plate appearances, nine total hits, five walks, and only six strikeouts. Four of his hits have gone for extra bases, with two home runs and two doubles.

There is definitely potential for more power for Plaz. He has a 92.4 MPH exit velocity and 8.5% barrel rate, both of which are significantly better than the A-Ball average of 87.4 MPH and 5.7%, respectively. Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America project his power as his best tool. Plaz making these improvements at just 19 years old is very promising for his future. If he can maintain this level of raw power while continuing to make strides forward when it comes to his hit tool and contact, he’ll be one of the Pirates’ best prospects within the next few years and one of the best backstop prospects in all of baseball.