3 Pirates prospects who will be traded by the end of the offseason

The Pittsburgh Pirates have already made one big splash this offseason, sending right-hander Luis Ortiz, along with two left-handed pitching prospects in Michael Kennedy and Josh Hartle, to the Cleveland Guardians for infielder Spencer Horwitz. The Pirates likely are far from being done, either. They still have a lot of offseason left and holes in the lineup to fill.

On top of that, they still have a handful of top prospects they could ship out the door. This is especially true for pitching prospects, of which they still have a ton, even after trading a pair of top-20 prospects by sending Hartle and Kennedy out the door. By the end of this winter, the Pirates might not have these three prospects left in their system.

3 Pirates prospects who'll likely be traded before 2025 season begins

Braxton Ashcraft

The Pirates originally drafted Braxton Ashcraft in 2018. It’s been a long, winding road with many injuries in between, but Ashcraft is on the front porch of making an impact at the MLB level. Still, he is certainly a risky prospect, and the Pirates should take advantage of Ashcraft now, as he is at his peak value before making his MLB debut.

Last season, Ashcraft pitched 73 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, working to a 2.84 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP. He struck out just over a quarter of his opponents, with a 25.8% K% and a quality 0.84 HR/9 rate. Ashcraft was elite at limiting walks. He had just a 4% walk rate, which was the 15th lowest among minor-league pitchers who made at least a dozen starts in 2024.

Ashcraft has a four-pitch mix. His four-seam fastball sits in the mid-90s and has shown a lot of life over the past two seasons. The right-hander’s slider is an upper-80s pitch with plus potential. He’ll also fold a curveball into his pitch mix, which gives him a third offering with above-average projection. The only pitch in his arsenal that doesn’t project as average or better is his changeup. Ashcraft has displayed outstanding control and is one of just seven minor-league pitchers with a sub-5% walk rate over the last two seasons (min. 30 starts).

Ashcraft is ranked as a top five prospect in the Pirates system by both MLB Pipeline andBaseball America. Pipeline even ranks him as the 85th-best prospect in baseball. But Ashcraft hasn’t been able to stay healthy consistently. His 2024 innings total was a career-high, and he was both limited due to workload and injured for most of the second half of the season. The Pirates should capitalize on Ashcraft now, especially given the strong depth they possess at the position.

Mike Burrows

Mike Burrows is another member of the Pirates’ 2018 draft class. Burrows made his MLB debut late into the 2024 season, appearing in just one game and pitching 3.1 innings, but the last two seasons haven’t treated Burrows kindly in totality. He had Tommy John surgery in April 2023 and didn’t return to action until June of this past season.

His numbers at Triple-A weren’t horrible upon his return. He had a 4.06 ERA with a 26.9% K% and 8.9% walk rate. Unfortunately, he was prone to home runs with a 1.67 HR/9 rate. Burrows had an unimpressive 4.65 FIP and 1.41 WHIP in a small sample, but he only pitched 37.2 innings, topping five frames just twice in 10 appearances.

Burrows’ stuff has always looked decent. His four-seamer averages out around 94-95 MPH with above-average movement. His high-spin curveball is one of his best offerings. One of Burrows’ most promising pursuits has been the development of his slider and changeup. Burrows initially looked like a two-pitch pitcher when he was younger, but his changeup is now a potentially above-average pitch, and he’s incorporated a slider into his pitch mix as well.

Like Ashcraft, it’s a question of long-term durability for Burrows. His Tommy John surgery in early 2023 severely limited what he could do in 2024. But Burrows did make his MLB debut, which is a big positive, and now might be the best time possible to trade him after he was given a chance to show off his stuff at the MLB level.

Carlson Reed

The Pirates drafted Carlson Reed out of West Virginia University in the 2023 draft. After working as the Mountaineers’ closer in his final college season, the Pirates moved Reed into a starting pitching role in 2024. Although that isn’t something he hasn’t consistently done since 2021 as an 18-year-old in the Northwoods League, Reed looked great as a starter.

Reed opened the season at A-Ball Bradenton, where he worked to a 2.43 ERA, 3.49 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP in 77.1 innings of work. Reed struck out a whopping 29.7% of his opponents with a strong 0.46 HR/9 rate. Batters couldn’t touch Reed, as he induced a whiff rate of 32.2%. When they did make contact, it resulted in just an 85.4 MPH exit velocity, 3.3% barrel rate, and 55.7% ground ball rate. Reed, however, struggled to limit walks, and had a 13% BB% at the level.

Reed’s great performance with the Marauders led to a promotion to High-A Greensboro. He performed even better for the Grasshoppers with an 0.87 ERA, 2.75 FIP, and 0.65 WHIP, albeit in a smaller sample size of 31 innings. Reed kept up his outstanding K%, clocking in at a 29.7% strikeout rate, and allowed just a single home run. However, the most impressive part of this sample size was his 7.9% walk rate.

Reed can sit in the mid-90s with his four-seamer and sinker. He also has an above-average slider and decent changeup. Reed’s struggles with command aren’t limited to his action in minor-league baseball. Reed walked 14.5% of opponents throughout his final season with WVU, even in a reliever-only role.

Reed is one of my favorite Pirates prospects, but I am not blinded by the fact there are reasons to capitalize on his value now. Reed performed exceptionally well, but hasn’t been tested at Double-A yet, which is the largest jump in the minor leagues (not including Triple-A to MLB). Reed’s command isn’t great, and there’s still reliever risk involved in his profile.