Grading the Spencer Horwitz trade for the Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates made their first big trade this offseason on Tuesday night at the Winter Meetings, acquiring infielder Spencer Horwitz from the Cleveland Guardians for three pitchers. Horwitz had been traded to Cleveland mere hours earlier in exchange for Andrés Giménez. The Pirates have seemingly found an answer at first base, and quite a good one, too, for multiple years. So how well did the Pirates end up grading out in one of the biggest trades Ben Cherington has made as the team's general manager?

What the Pirates are getting in Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz is a former 24th-round pick by the Toronto Blue Jays. He made his MLB debut late into the 2023 season, appearing in 15 games. The infielder opened the 2024 season at Triple-A, where he mashed to the tune of a .335/.456/.514 triple-slash, .436 wOBA, and 160 wRC+ in 259 plate appearances. Horwitz only struck out 15.8% of the time and walked at an even more frequent 17% rate.

That strong start to the year earned Horwitz a promotion to MLB, and he continued to hit well in his first extended look against big-league pitching. Horwitz collected 381 plate appearances and put up a .265/.357/.433 triple-slash. He hit for an above-average amount of power, with a dozen home runs and a .168 isolated slugging percentage. Horwitz continued to keep his K% down at just 18% and walked at a healthy 11% rate. Horwitz ended the year with a .344 wOBA and 127 wRC+. Underlying numbers also put Horwitz in a positive light. He was above the 60th percentile in each of xwOBA (.338), xSLG% (.423), and xBA (.254). Horwitz had a respectable 88.2 MPH exit velocity and an 8% barrel rate.

Horwitz ended up as one of the best rookie hitters in 2024. There were 26 rookies with at least 350 plate appearances last season. Horwitz had the third-best wRC+, only surpassed by Lawrence Butler and Jackson Merrill. He also had the third-best wOBA and the fifth-best OPS. Horwitz led all rookies in on-base percentage and was eighth in isolated slugging percentage. 

The standout rookie split his year between second base and third base. He received mixed reviews for his defense at the keystone, with -5 defensive runs saved, but a more neutral zero outs above average. However, he looked better at first base, with only -1 DRS and +1 OAA. Horwitz would likely fit better at first base anyway, considering he was in the seventh percentile of sprint speed in 2024.

The Pirates have Horwitz under control for many more seasons. He is still an entire season away from arbitration and doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2029 campaign. However, Horwitz has one glaring red flag: his drastic platoon splits. When facing right-handed pitchers, Horwitz had a .864 OPS, .373 wOBA, and 147 wRC+. But when Horwitz had to face same-handed hurlers, he saw his numbers dip to a .522 OPS, .239 wOBA, and 53 wRC+ in 2024.

What the Guardians are getting from Pirates in Spencer Horwitz trade

The headliner of the trade is Luis Ortiz. Ortiz is coming off a breakout season, pitching to a 3.32 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP. He only struck out 19.2% of his opponents, but saw a huge reduction in walk rate, going from 12% in 2023 to just 7.6% during this previous year. The right-hander also put up a solid 1.06 HR/9 rate. Ortiz made multiple different adjustments to his game in 2024, including adding a cutter to his pitch mix, lowering his arm angle, and adding more movement to his sinker, slider, and four-seam fastball. This led to a Stuff+ rating of 104.

Ortiz’s season, however, did come with some caveats. The 89 MPH exit velocity and 8.8% barrel rate he induced were both below average. ERA estimators did not like his body of work, as he owned a 4.31 xERA, 4.59 xFIP, and 4.38 SIERA. His batting average on balls in play was an abnormally low .243 mark. But Ortiz is only entering his age-26 season and is controlled through 2029. He was also a top 100-ranked prospect heading into the 2023 campaign. There are reasons to believe in his profile moving forward.

Michael Kennedy is one of two left-handed pitching prospects the Pirates are sending in return for Horwitz as well. Kennedy is the better of the two. The former 2022 fourth-round pick spent most of his year at Bradenton, where he pitched to a 4.07 ERA (but 3.73 FIP) and 1.12 WHIP across 73 frames. Kennedy rarely allowed walks, with a 5.3% free pass rate, and paired that with a healthy 26.6% K% and 32.4% whiff rate. He also had an 0.99 HR/9 rate and a 5.1% barrel rate. Kennedy’s strong season for Bradenton led to a late-season promotion to Greensboro, where he pitched 10.1 innings, allowing just one earned run, 15 Ks, and three walks.

Kennedy is not a hard-throwing pitcher, averaging just around 90 MPH with his four-seamer. His best pitch is a slider that sat around 80 MPH with 39 inches of vertical movement and 13 inches of horizontal break. The third pitch of his arsenal is a low-80s changeup with about 37 inches of drop and 11 inches of break. Kennedy displayed strong command over his three offerings this year, with his ability to locate being his best attribute. 

Josh Hartle is the third and final piece of the puzzle heading to Cleveland. The Pirates drafted Hartle in the most recent draft during the third round out of Wake Forest. Hartle entered the college season with first-round aspirations, with some projecting him as a late first-rounder if he could capitalize on his strong 2023 campaign. However, Hartle failed to do so, putting up just a 5.79 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 3.24 K:BB ratio. Hartle struck out 23.3% of batters with a 7.2% walk rate, but was very prone to home runs. The lefty’s HR/9 clocked in at 1.57. Hartle only appeared in one game for Bradenton in 2024.

Like Kennedy, Hartle is a soft-tosser and averages out around 90 MPH, but his fastball can play up because of its sinking action and his impressive command. Hartle has three offerings to complement his fastball. Of those three, his low-80s sweeping slider is the best, and projects as above-average with plus potential. He’ll also throw a cutter in the upper 80s. Finally, there’s his mid-80s changeup. Currently, only his slider projects as above-average, though Hartle has displayed command that could help some of his offerings play beyond their current outlook. 

Final Thoughts

It’s hard to be upset with getting a first baseman who just put up a wRC+ above 120. There have only been four seasons in the 2000s where a Pirates’ first baseman has put up a wRC+ greater than Horwitz’s last year in 350+ plate appearances, and only one of those instances has happened since the start of the 2010s.

A lot of Pirates fans loved the strides Ortiz made last year, including me. But his season still wasn’t perfect, and there were still some red flags that could have led to him moving back into the bullpen in 2025. Hartle has just one game under his belt as a professional pitcher and was not trending in the right direction when the Pirates drafted him. Kennedy has a ton of upside, like Ortiz, but he’s barely played above A-Ball. He just turned 20 as well.

The one thing to note is that this seems a bit light, especially given what starting pitchers are going for right now. Ortiz is a young and controllable arm who made some promising improvements on the field that translated into good results. Back-of-the-rotation arms are making upwards of $15+ million. The Pirates also included two other pitchers with upside, even if they don’t have as high of a ceiling as Ortiz and are still years away from being ready.

Still, that doesn’t change the fact that Horwitz was one of the best-hitting rookies last year. Horwitz and Jackson Merrill had nearly identical wRC+ marks. The Pirates needed to move some of their pitching depth for a bat that could make a real impact, and that’s exactly what they did.

Final Grade: B+