Again, Baseball Prospectus Predicts Doom for Pittsburgh Pirates

Pecota2014 copy


In a nothing new here headline, the geeks at Baseball Prospectus the Pittsburgh Pirates to take a step back in 2014.  Yeh, they have been the prediction machine that missed it so badly last year, is back to its’ old tricks.

Here’s the link to the projected-PECOTA-based 2014 standings. The Bucs have been projected to take a serious step back into the abyss with a projected 78-84 record, good for fourth in the National League Central, a few wins ahead of the Cubbies, but behind the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals.

If the projections somehow get it correct, there will be no Wild Card play in game, no National League Division Series, no NLCS, no World Series, nothing, zip….zero, start the clock again on the streak.  So if you would like….HIT THE PANIC BUTTON PITTSBURGH!

Ok, in case you didn’t listen to the panic button line, remember this about PECOTA and Baseball Prospectus, they have been wrong before.   The Los Angeles Dodgers are the darlings of the projections while the Pirates are looked at as a flash in the pan, one and done small market also ran.

Of course, last March PECOTA absolutely hated the Cardinals, saw the Cubs making big improvements and saw only a glimmer of hope for the Bucs adding almost five wins to their paltry 2012 total and finishing a breath above the .500 mark.  We remember actually being a little bit happy about it at the time.

It saw the Pirates position players improving in 2012, but the pitching declining.

It never saw Russell Martin coming.

It predicted a bounce back year for Clint Barmes.

It liked Starling Marte, but never saw his complete package.  (Not that many have)

It missed Cutch being the MVP.

But it really swung and missed on the Pirates pitching staff.

Raise your glass, and trust once again that we can look back and laugh on the silly computer geniuses.

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  • Andrew Goemaat

    I don’t hate sabermetrics (thought I don’t love them either), but the one thing I can’t get over is the idea that if you crunch enough numbers you can predict the outcome of the results of both a player and a team. The unpredictability of baseball is what makes it such a fun sport to follow, yet everyone thinks they can foresee the unforeseeable these days using the right formulas. Case in point, ZiPS projected the Red Sox to go 82-80 last year (we all know how that worked out), the Blue Jays to go 89-73, and the Angels AND the Nats to go 93-69. What a fucking joke…

    While I never saw Marte’s 4.6 WAR season coming, I really liked him in the limited time we saw him in 2012 and was super high on him going into 2013. I also liked Liriano’s odds to bounce back (though not nearly as much as he did), and I was a strong believer in Grilli going into the year as the closer. My point is, these so called “projections” don’t mean jack. No one can predict what the season will bring, and that’s the best part of the sport. That said, I predict Mercer has a break out year and establishes himself as a solid offensive SS. I mean hey, why not? My prediction is as good as anyone else’s because its just that… a prediction.