Pittsburgh Pirates’ LHP Jeff Locke is a viable 5th starter

No single player is more polarizing for Pittsburgh Pirates fans than Jeff Locke. We have anecdotal proof of that by way of Twitter.

Yet in yesterday’s 3-2 win over the Chicago White Sox, Locke came out of the chute with gusto, tossing three perfect innings to start the game en route to six strong frames. Fans were thrilled.

And then when the “ugly Jeff Locke” appeared in the sixth inning – with two walks in the frame setting up Chicago’s lone offensively productive inning – the pendulum swung.

Although Mel is not a Locke hater by any means, her tweet encapsulates a lot of feeling that fans have with Locke. The question looms large – Is Jeff Locke really as bad as people seem to think? Bad enough to warrant a trade for a starting pitcher?

Today I am going to take Pittsburgh Pirates fans on an exercise by comparing Locke to the fifth starters for all three National League division-leading teams. Locke may or may not be the answer as the Pirates fifth starter at the end of the season. Yet, the trade deadline is a little more than a month away, and his next few starts may push Neal Huntington in one direction or the other.

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Before we begin, a word on injuries. As I started to look through the players to compare with Locke, one thing became very clear – injuries to even one starter can shake up a starting rotation so greatly that their current “fifth starter” may in fact be their seventh or eighth. Thus, we are going to compare Locke to current fifth starters only. This is a more accurate representation and will go a lot further in trying to determine if the Pirates truly need to seek starting pitching on the trade market. Something else to consider – at this point in the season as team’s move towards the second half of the year, the concept of a #5 starter almost becomes moot. Teams set their rotations for their opponents and spot starts become more commonplace. Thusly, we take our #5 starters from official team depth charts, understanding that they may not truly be the #5.

For each pitcher, we will throw up their baseline stats and touch on a few other stats as well. We’ll put these right next to Locke’s for easy viewing.

Now let’s start with everyone’s favorite cyber-espionage artists.

St. Louis Cardinals – Tyler Lyons

Tyler Lyons is a young left hander who has had a few cups of coffee with the Cardinals over the past few years. Here’s how he shapes up to Locke in 2015:

Locke

Lyons

Lyons has been pressed into action due to the cumulative effects of injuries to Adam Wainright and Lance Lynn. The big differentiation from Locke here is the strikeouts per nine innings. Otherwise, Locke and Lyons profile similarly in many regards. Both struggle with control and are somewhat home run prone – Lyons has a career HR/9 of 1.1.

New York Mets – Noah Syndergaard

This one is going to hurt.

Locke

Syndergaard

Syndergaard is a young phenom enjoying his first taste of the big leagues. The New York Mets’ rotation took a huge hit when Zach Wheeler was lost to Tommy John Surgery, yet many would argue that “Thor” is an upgrade. It becomes very hard to argue otherwise when one looks at Syndergaard’s 10 strikeouts per nine innings and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Perhaps most impressive for the rook is his control, having only walked eight batters in just under 41 innings. Comparing Locke to Syndergaard is almost unfair.

Los Angeles Dogers – Carlos Frias

Injuries to Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu have forced the Dodgers to rely on Frias, who before this season had all of two major league starts under his belt.

Locke

Frias

(Note: Frias also made several relief appearances before sliding into the rotation)

Frias profiles as a version of Jeff Locke without the strikeout potential, which should tell you something. Locke clearly has better deception in his two-seam and breaking balls, as Frias cannot even muster a strikeout-to-walk of 2.0. Yet Frias does not give up home runs despite giving up close to 11 hits per nine.

I devised this comparison as a way to draw attention to one simple fact.

Jeff Locke is the fifth starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Perhaps our expectations for his performance have more to do with the performances of Gerrit Cole, A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano. With three dominant starters at the front end of the rotation, the back end’s perceived struggles may get magnified. You can add the outstanding-thus-far Charlie Morton to that equation as well.

Is that fair to Locke? Probably not. Is it fair to expect more from him? Absolutely. It is more than fair for fans to expect the Locke seen in the first half of 2013. With 74 starts under his big-league belt, Locke needs to show us if he truly is a back-of-the-rotation guy or has the ability to be something more.

What all Pittsburgh Pirates fans should remember, is that here and now, in this season of excellent Pirate starting pitching, Locke will be nothing more than the fifth starter.

And in that role, he might not be as bad as we think.

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