Pirates-Diamondbacks Series Preview

The Pirates continue their western road trip with a 3 game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks beginning Friday night. Read on for a preview of the series:

Diamondbacks Record: 9-8 (3^rd in NL West)

Last Series Result: 4 game sweep of the San Francisco Giants

The Diamondbacks season got off to a rough start before it even began with the news that Outfielder A.J. Pollock, who fractured his elbow at a play at the plate in one of the final exhibition games of the season, would miss at least three months, if not the whole season. The early results were bad too, as they started the season with three series losses to the Rockies, Cubs, and Dodgers which left them with a 3-7 record. Since then though, they’ve been on a bit of a hot streak, taking 2 of 3 from the Padres and sweeping the Giants in a 4 game set to bring their record above .500.

The Diamondbacks decided to go all in this offseason bringing in Jean Segura to hold down, Second Base, Tyler Clippard to bolster an already strong bullpen, and adding Shelby Miller to the rotation. The crown jewel of the offseason though was bringing in former Cy Young winner Zach Greinke. The Diamondbacks believed that they could dominate with a great rotation, featuring Greinke, Miller, and incumbent Patrick Corbin forming their top three, and rely on Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock to lead the charge offensively. Expectations took a huge dive after the Pollock injury and the rough start. With Pollock out with injury and Ender Inciarte and his .343 OBP gone in the Shelby Miller deal, the Diamondbacks outfield is rather sparse. They have generally used combinations of Yasmany Tomas, Chris Owings, David Peralta, and Socrates Brito to cover the Outfield. While Tomas is off to a good start, slashing .288/.345/.538 with 3 Home Runs, the rest of the outfield is struggling from the plate with Owings and Brito both owning OBP’s under .300.

In the Infield, Third Baseman Jake Lamb and Second Baseman Jean Segura are off to hot starts with Segura slashing .338/.375/.574. There will be more on Jake Lamb down below. The always dangerous First Baseman Paul Goldschmidt is having a similar start to McCutchen, not hitting for average (.237), but still getting on base a lot (.378 OBP) thanks to a team leading 12 walks, not to mention his 3 Home Runs. Unlike McCutchen, the difference between Goldschmidt’s BABIP this season and his career rate is not nearly so dramatic (.023 percentage points vs. .068 percentage points for McCutchen), so one shouldn’t expect nearly the dramatic rise in average over the rest of the season that we’ll likely see with Cutch.

As a whole, the Diamondbacks have a powerful lineup, with a .435 slugging percentage (5^th in MLB), 20 Home Runs (7^th in MLB), and 8 Triples (1^st in MLB). However, they do have weak spots in the lineup that have made them reliant on Home Runs. In addition to the above-mentioned Owings and Brito, Shortstop Nick Ahmed and Catcher Wellington Castillo have seen their struggles at the plate this season. Though both currently have 3 Home Runs, they have done little else with Ahmed slashing .214/.254/.411 and Castillo slashing .213/.283/.426.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Game 1 – April 22, 9:40 P.M. ET

Jon Niese (L) (2-0) vs. Patrick Corbin (L) (1-1)

Game 2 – April 23, 8:10 P.M. ET

Juan Nicasio (R) (2-1) vs. Rubby De La Rosa (R) (1-3)

Game 3 – April 24, 4:10 P.M. ET

Francisco Liriano (L) (1-1) vs. Robbie Ray (L) (1-0)

Jon Niese goes for his 3^rd win of the season in the opener. In his first season with the Pirates, Niese has had mixed results. Though he is without a loss, he has benefitted from an abnormally low opposing BABIP (.204) and has a FIP higher than his ERA (4.54 FIP compared with 3.50 ERA). Working in his favor though is that his HR/9 of 1.50 is well above his career average (0.90) and should normalize over the season. Given the disconnect between his stats, it would not be surprising if Niese gets hit hard tonight, particularly given the Diamondbacks heavy hitting lineup.

Juan Nicasio will also be going for his 3^rd win in the second game of the series. During the regular season, Nicasio has been somewhat inconsistent, looking great in his 2 wins, but terrible in his loss. Even in his most recent appearance, he earned the win in spite of one terrible inning. Nicasio is also going to need to go deeper into games, now he is only averaging 5 innings per start. Working in his favor though is the opposite of the problem Niese is having, as he has a FIP drastically lower than his ERA (3.91 FIP compared with a 4.80 ERA).

I have already written a little about Liriano’s struggles this season in the most recent series recap. Right now he is having command issues as he is issuing walks at over half his career rate (8.22 in 2016 compared with 3.85 career). Liriano is also giving up Home Runs 1.76 Home Runs per 9 innings and most frighteningly currently has a FIP higher than his already high ERA (6.30 FIP compared with 4.11 ERA). I would not be surprised if Liriano’s hamstring is still bothering him despite what he and the Pirates have said and I would not be surprised if we end up seeing Ryan Vogelsong pitching in his spot again.

The Pirates appear to be lucky in that they are missing Zach Greinke and Shelby Miller who are ostensibly the top two in the Diamondbacks’ rotation. However, the Pirates may wish they are seeing Miller who is struggling mightily to begin the season. Greinke as well has seen his struggles so far, though not nearly to the degree as with Miller. The Pirates do face another good pitcher in the opener in Patrick Corbin. Corbin had a breakout season in 2013, but missed 2014 and the first half of 2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was able to show that 2013 was no fluke though with a good second half of 2015 which saw him strike out a lot of batters (8.26 K/9) and walk few (1.83 BB/9) and finish with a 3.35 FIP. So far in 2016 he has a deceptively low ERA of 2.75 (4.21 FIP) and has not struck out as many batters (6.41 K/9).

Last season Rubby De La Rosa somehow won 14 games for the Diamondbacks, despite having a 4.81 FIP and giving up 1.53 Home Runs per 9 innings pitched. This season De La Rosa has already made appearances out of the bullpen and as a starter (3 and 2) which explains his record as he’s gotten decisions in both roles (1-1 out of the bullpen, 0-2 as a starter). Look for the Pirates to employ as Left-handed of a lineup as they can as De La Rosa has extreme splits against different handed batters. For his career, Right-handed batters are slashing .242/.304/.391, while Left-handed batters are slashing .291/.368/.507.

Robbie Ray doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (7.99 K/9 career), he issues probably too many walks (3.66 BB/9 career), and doesn’t get a ton of grounders either (41.6% career). Ray does keep the ball in the park though (0.72 HR/9 career). Still young at 24 years old, Ray is in his second full year as a starter and despite going 5-12 in 2015, had a 3.53 FIP and posted a 2.1 WAR. Though he is an efficient, if unremarkable starter, look for the Pirates to be patient and take advantage his higher than normal walk rate.

Recent Meetings

Last season the Pirates played the Diamondbacks six times, three games in Phoenix in April and three games in Pittsburgh in August. The Pirates won 5 and lost only 1 of the six games and outscored the Diamondbacks overall 28-15. In Arizona in April, the Pirates swept the Diamondbacks, winning the series finale 8-0. Arizona managed to win the series opener when the two teams met in Pittsburgh in August, but the Pirates won the second two to win the series.

The second game of the August series is probably the one that Pirates fans will remember most of these games. The Pirates seemingly blew open a one run ball game with a three run Fifth inning that gave them a 7-3 lead. A Jung Ho Kang Home Run in the Seventh inning seemed to be icing on the cake. However the Diamondbacks came back, scoring three runs in the Eighth, then taking advantage of two errors in the Ninth to tie the game at 8. It remained that way into the 15^th inning, with neither team really threatening to break the deadlock as neither team could advance a runner past second base. It appeared the game would head to the 16^th inning when the Pirates led off the 15^th inning with back-to-back strikeouts. However, Francisco Cervelli hit a single to get on base, then Pedro Florimon had what will likely be his finest moment in a Pirates uniform when he hit a triple to bring him home and win the game.

Diamondbacks Player to Watch: Jake Lamb

Arizona Third Baseman Jake Lamb is now in his second full season in the Majors and he’s off to a scorching start in 2016. At only 25 years old, he is assumed to figure into the Diamondback’s future plans and many think that this season could be a breakout for him. Lamb made his Major League debut in 2014, appearing in 37 games and slashing .230/.263/.373 and hitting 4 Home Runs. Last year in 2015, his first full season in the Majors, he improved on those numbers, hitting .263/.331/.386 over 107 games. It was somewhat of a disappointment though that he only hit 6 Home Runs though, after hitting 4 in his first 37 games. Many in Arizona think that this will be a big year for him and that he will feature prominently in the Diamondbacks’ potential run at a championship.

Jake Lamb is off to a fast start this year, slashing .316/.394/.579 with 153 wRC+ in this still young season. Lamb has also seen his Strikeout rate decrease and his Walk rate increase over his 2015 numbers (24.9% K Rate in 2015 vs. 21.2% K Rate in 2016; 9.2% BB Rate in 2015 vs. 12.1% BB Rate in 2016). It should be noted that with 66 Plate Appearances, this Strikeout rate has likely stabilized, but it will take approximately twice the number of Plate Appearances before the Walk rate stabilizes. Additionally, Lamb already has 2 Home Runs on the season and 10 of his 18 total hits are extra base hits (7 Doubles, 1 Triples, and 2 Home Runs). Early returns on Lamb have also pegged him as an above average fielder. During his only full season in 2015, he had 7 Defensive Runs Saved and a UZR/150 of 12.9 at his everyday position.

The jury is still out on Lamb though, as he has thus far benefitted from an abnormally high BABIP in the small sample size of his career and the smaller sample size of 2016 (.336 for his career and .381 for 2016) It remains to be seen if his BABIP is naturally above the league average of .300 or if he is due for decrease in his output. His stats for 2016 thus far are likely not sustainable over the whole season, but the question right now is how far they will fall. Lamb is likely the Third Baseman of the future for the Diamondbacks and right now he is playing like a perennial All-Star, but whether or not he is remains to be seen. He is a player to keep an eye on, not just in this series, but over the rest of 2016.

Pirates Keys to Victory: It’s All About Pitching

Limit Home Runs

As mentioned above, the Diamondbacks have weak spots in their lineup and don’t get on base as much as you would think (.312 Team OBP) thanks to a low number of walks (43, 21^st in MLB). Because of this they are reliant on big hits to get them runs on the board quickly. If the Pirates pitching can keep the ball in the park, then the Diamondbacks are going to have difficulty scoring a lot of runs. Even if the pitchers aren’t perfect, it should at least give the Pirates a chance to win.

Pitchers Go For a Long Time

The Pirates starting pitching also needs to last long in games. Given the shakiness of the Pirates bullpen of late, it’s important that Niese, Nicasio, and Liriano give quality starts that will allow the bullpen to rest. Also important, a quality start means no insurmountable deficits and with the Pirates ability to get on base and the less than stellar pitching that they will face the Pirates should be in every game if the Starting Pitching is effective.

No Free Baserunners

The Pirates currently lead all of Major League Baseball in walks issued (73). This and other free baserunners from hit batters and errors need to be limited given the power the Diamondbacks’ lineup packs. Whenever the Pirates give up a free baserunner that is another unnecessary run given up should the next batter hit a Home Run or potentially an extra base hit. Ideally, the Pirates limit these as well, but 100% success should not be expected and every run counts.

Series Prediction

I find it a near-pointless endeavor to attempt to predict the outcome of not just one baseball game, but a series of three as well. However, I will do so because it’s fun and I’ve always mentally tried to do it at the beginning of every series anyways. As I’m sure has been beaten into you by now, the Diamondbacks lineup is a powerful one, even without A.J. Pollock. They construction of their team reminds me a lot of the Detroit Tigers, who it should be reminded recently took 3 of 4 against the Pirates. Given the uncertainty with the pitching staff lately, some games could get away from the Pirates. However, I don’t expect the Pirates to get swept (in fact I nearly picked them to win this series). The Diamondbacks’ lineup is not an unstoppable juggernaut, but has flaws just like any team. Their 137 Strikeouts are currently 6^th in all the Majors. Given that and their .312 OBP as a team, I could see a lot of 1-2-3 innings for the D-Backs. On the flip side I could also see a lot of 4 batter innings where 3 get out and the other batter hits a Home Run. Overall, it should be a fun high-scoring series that generally won’t be on nearly as late as the Padres series.

Prediction: Diamondbacks win 2-1