The Pirates Mysterious Jeff Locke

Jeff Locke dominated the Philadelphia Phillies.

Jeff Locke is very difficult to understand.  Last night against the Philadelphia Phillies he was masterful.  The Redstone Rocket had a better line than Clayton Kershaw.  In his last start against the St. Louis Cardinals it was a different story–three innings–five walks, four runs allowed.  And that was after shutting down the Cardinals over seven-plus innings five days before that!

Jeff Locke has some of the worst peripheral stats in the game.  At times the advanced numbers show the southpaw to be the worst pitcher in the game during this 2014 season.  All this after being named to the All-Star team for the National League last season.  However, Locke has since reduced his xFIP to a respectable 3.77 now which is nearing his career best.

Jeff Locke photoshop

Last night at Citizens Bank Park, Locke showed increased velocity which could be the key ingredient for Locke to be successful in his road starts.   The big reason why Locke was so dominant is that he was getting first pitch strikes and the Phils batters were put in position that they felt they needed to be more aggressive— much to the chagrin of the often silent Phillies XM radio team.  Locke got the fastball inside on hitters, and the pitches were called strikes too.

As everyone knows, locating the fastball is a key for Locke.  But it really helps when the velocity on his sinker, in ten innings this September now, is at the highest level it’s been since an outing in October of 2012.  [Click to embiggen the Jeff Locke Brooks Baseball card and chart below]

Jeff Locke: Velo and Movement chart from Brooks Baseball.

Clint Hurdle said it was the best start of the season for Jeff Locke.

"“He had, for me, his best performance of the season, his fastball command was live, with good finish. His velocity was up. The changeup played, but the curveball was outstanding tonight.”"

Locke abandoned the four seamer in recent starts according to Brooks Baseball charts.  It didn’t help in the ass kicking by the Cardinals on September 2nd, but it did against the Phillies.

But we wanted to dig deeper.  One thing we noticed was that Locke has also reduced the number of grooved pitches on his devastating change up. Check out the chart from Brooks Baseball.

Jeff Locke has reduced the grooved pitches in 2014.

Jeff Locke is frustrating. It seems obvious that he can pitch well enough to dominate poor teams as showed against the Phillies.  But he has also pitched well against the NL leading Cardinals on August 27.  However, when he had to face them again immediately in his next start five days later, it was awful.    A similar case happened ten starts ago when he held the Colorado Rockies to three earned runs at PNC Park, but then was rocked in Colorado.

We have no idea if these 500 words helped anyone figure out Jeff Locke. But we do know some basic facts. Getting first pitch strikes is crucial. The increased use of a breaking ball makes him very effective. A filthy change up can be the difference maker especially when he doesn’t groove it.  The increased velocity on his sinker makes him dominant.

Jeff Locke is a good pitcher, but like most back of the rotation arms, it takes a combination of factors for him to be dominant. I still don’t know if that’s written clearly enough. Locke is such a good pitcher, it’s just hard to have faith in him during a crucial stretch run, without that lethal conncoction of factors it takes for him to put up a quality start every time he takes the bump.