Gerrit Cole Is The Most Important Player To The 2017 Pirates

Gerrit Cole is the most important player to the 2017 Pittsburgh Pirates

The 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates won 98 games, while the 2016 Pittsburgh Pirates won just 78 games. What was one of the biggest differences between the two seasons? The lack of a true top of the rotation starting pitcher.

In 2015 the Pirates had that in Gerrit Cole. However, Cole’s 2016 season was an injury riddled one. Due to these injuries he made just 21 starts, and his effectiveness waned. And this had a massive negative impact on the Pirates.

During Gerrit Cole’s near Cy Young season in 2015 he made 32 starts and the Pirates went 23-9 in his 32 starts. Cole finished third in the National League in FIP  (2.66), fourth in home run rate (0.48 HR/9), fifth in innings pitched (208), and 11th in walk rate (1.91 BB/9). He also struck out a career high 202 batters.

No matter how you want to measure it Gerrit Cole was one of the best starting pitchers in the National League in 2015. This was a big reason why the Pirates won 98 games and went to the postseason in 2015. In order to return to the postseason in 2107, the Pirates need Cole to be a front line starter once again.

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Gerrit Cole’s 2016 season got off on the wrong foot and never recovered. He dealt with injuries in the offseason that, no pun intended, threw off his offseason routine. This delayed his start to Spring Training and he was never able to fully recover in 2016.

Once Cole started to get healthy, elbow inflammation started to flare up. This caused him to make four consecutive bad starts in August before being placed on the disabled list. He would return to make one sub-par start in September before being shutdown for the season.

There is also reason to expect Cole to bounce back. In 2016 his BABIP was .345. This was by far the highest of his career, with his previous career high being .311 in 2014. A BABIP this high indicates that Cole was snake bitten by bad luck, bad defense, or a little bit of both last season. Also, a pitcher with a high BABIP is almost always one due for improvement.

In 2017 the Pirates need Gerrit Cole to pitch like he did in 2015. Having a shutdown starter at the top of the rotation can help a team cover up a lot of warts, and Cole has been this starter in the past.

Jameson Taillon and Ivan Nova are both strong middle of the rotation starting pitchers. Taillon has the potential to be even better than that, but it is dangerous to bank on that in his first full Major League season. This adds to the pressure on Gerrit Cole.

If Cole is able to make 32 starts once again in 2017, and the Pirates can win at least 23 of them, that leaves the team looking for about 67 wins to return to the postseason. Assuming Taillon and Nova can combine to give the Pirates at least 35 wins that leaves them searching for 32 wins. And that is not very difficult to do, especially with how productive the Pirate lineup should be in 2017.

I should be clear I am not talking about Gerrit Cole winning 23 games, or Ivan Nova and Jameson Taillon combining for 35 wins. What I mean is the team recording 23 victories when Cole starts, and 35 when the other two start, regardless of who the winning pitcher is in the game. Because pitcher’s W/L record is the dumbest stat in baseball and one of the dumbest in all of sports.

Even when looking at Gerrit Cole alone, getting 23 wins with one starting pitcher on the mound gets you 1/4 of the way to the postseason. Say the Pirates were to go 23-9 with Cole on the mound again, they would need to win just 67 of their remaining 130 games (a 67-63 record) to get to 90 wins. And 90 wins will almost assuredly put you in the postseason.

When a team is in a slump they need a ‘stopper’ in their rotation to end the skid, Gerrit Cole can be and has been that pitcher. A Major League Baseball team also needs a pitcher that every time they hand them the ball they expect to win. Once again, Gerrit Cole can be and has been that pitcher. The 2017 Pittsburgh Pirates need this pitcher.

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As long as he is healthy, I fully expect Gerrit Cole to return to ace level in 2017. If this happens, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ chances of returning to the postseason will greatly improve.

A front line, shutdown starting pitcher can help cover up a lot of warts on any team. Gerrit Cole has been this starting pitcher in the past and the Pirates need him to return to being that starting pitcher. This makes Gerrit Cole is the most important player to the 2017 Pittsburgh Pirates.