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Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting the Starting Rotation
By Marty Leap
Mitch Keller
Entering the 2019 season, expectations were high for Mitch Keller. In addition to entering the season ranked as the top prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Keller was expected to make his MLB debut in 2019. Keller would indeed make his MLB debut, but this is where expectations would stop being met.
Keller made 11 starts for the Pirates and logged 48 innings of work. In these 48 innings of work, he posted a poor 7.13 ERA. However, the rest of his stats paint a much different picture for the righty.
Keller was burnt by a .475 batting average on balls in play. A BAbip above .300 indicates a pitcher that was burnt by poor defense and/or bad luck. But .475? Well, it was the highest in a single season in MLB history for a pitcher that pitched at least 40 innings.
To go along with his unsustainably high BAbip, Keller had a strong 3.19 FIP to go with a terrific 28.6% strikeout rate. His fastball spin rate was in the 91st percentile and his curveball spin was in the 85th percentile.
Keller has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starting pitcher at the MLB level. He has been working with Marin to throw his fastball up in the zone more to generate additional swings and misses. This should make a big difference for Keller in 2020. Do not be surprised to see Keller breakout in 2020.