Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting Starting Rotation After Jameson Taillon Trade

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Sep 17, 2020; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates manager Derek Shelton (left) congratulates starting pitcher Steven Brault (43) on his complete game victory over the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park. Pittsburgh won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

As the offseason rolls on, so do the trades being made by the Pittsburgh Pirates. After trading Jameson Taillon to the New York Yankees, for the second time in a week the Pirates have traded away one of their starting pitchers.

The other starting pitcher traded was right-hander Joe Musgrove, who was sent to the San Diego Padres last week in arguably Ben Cherington’s best trade as general manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Following the Musgrove trade we took a look at what the Pirate starting rotation could look like in 2021. Now that Taillon has been traded, that outlook changes.

So, now that Taillon is gone, what could the starting rotation look like for the Pittsburgh Pirates when the 2021 season begins? Before we go any further brace yourselves, cover your eyes, grab some heart medicine, and maybe pop a few Xanax… because things could be ugly this season.

But, hey, that’s part of a rebuild. You expect some ugly, and when that ugly is ugly enough to potentially net you the number one overall pick in the draft for a second year in a row, it’s not necesarrily a bad thing. At least the Pittsburgh Pirates have fully committed to tanking and rebuilding.

Sep 22, 2020; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Steven Brault (43) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

Ace… Steven Brault?

Who the hell is going to be at the top of the starting rotation for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021? That’s a great question!

If Opening Day was tomorrow the starter would likely be lefty Steven Brault. In 11 games last season, 10 starts, Brault had a career-best 3.38 ERA and 3.92 FIP in 42.2 innings of work. While his 12.4% walk rate was the highest of his career, so was his 21.3% strikeout rate.

Brault also did an excellent job limiting opposing batter’s quality contact. His 85.8 MPH exit velocity ranked in the 89th percentile in baseball, his 4.4% barrel rate was in the 83rd percentile and his 32.7% hard hit rate was in the 76th percentile.

Dating back to late May of 2019, Brault appears to have turned a corner as a MLB pitcher. In 29 games pitched, 27 starts, since May 24th, 2019, Brault has posted a 4.16 ERA and a 4.20 FIP in 136.1 innings pitched. He has allowed home runs at just a 0.79 HR/9 rate, while walking 10.5% of batters faced and striking out 20.1%.

All of that said, there have also been trade rumors swirling around Brault this offseason and it would not be a surprise to see him also get traded before the start of the season. If Brault is still a Pirate by Opening Day, look for him to sit at the top of the rotation to start the season.

CLEVELAND, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 25: Starting pitcher Mitch Keller #23 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches to Cesar Hernandez #7 of the Cleveland Indians during the first inning at Progressive Field on September 25, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

Two wild cards

After Brault, who is still far from a known commodity, there are question marks galore in the Pirate starting rotation. Righties Mitch Keller and Chad Kuhl would likely slide in behind Brault and both of them are total wild cards.

Keller has spent recent seasons as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but through his first 16 MLB starts he has a 5.81 ERA and a 4.30 FIP. Batting average on balls in play have been the story of Keller’s career. Despite a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 3.19 FIP in 2019, Keller’s ERA was 7.13, largely due to a .475 BAbip. Then in 2020 his strikeout rate dropped to 18.4% and FIP rose to 6.75, but, thanks to a .104 BAbip, his ERA fell to 2.91.

Keller has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starting pitcher, but he needs to harness it better and prove he can do it at in the Majors. Kuhl, like Keller, has plus stuff, but he also has never been able to completely harness it and reach his potential.

After missing over two calendar years due to Tommy John surgery and the COVID-19 pandemic pushing back the start of the 2020 season, Kuhl took the mound again in July. Kuhl went on to pitch an up and down 46.1 innings, posting a 4.27 ERA and a 5.48 FIP. His 22.3% strikeout rate was a career high, but so was his 14.2% walk rate. He also allowed home runs at a career worst rate of 1.55 HR/9. To Kuhl’s credit, though, he helped limit runs as evident by his 4.27 ERA, and outside of a start against the Royals in which he allowed 9 earned runs in 2.1 innings pitched, he had a 2.66 ERA in 2020.

Both Kuhl and Keller have the stuff to be above average MLB starting pitchers, but neither have yet to show that with consistency. However, both will start the season in the Pirate starting rotation. Both also bring serious boom or bust potential to the Pirate starting rotation, if they each pitch to their potential in 2021 the Pirate starting rotation will be much better than anticipated. It could also give Kuhl’s trade value a big shot in the arm.

CLEVELAND, OH – SEPTEMBER 27: JT Brubaker #65 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches during the game against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on September 27, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) /

A group of four

This is where things really get murky. JT Brubaker? Wil Crowe? Miguel Yajure? Cody Ponce? Odds are, the final two spots in the starting rotation would be two of these four.

As we covered on the site over the weekend the 2021 season is an important one for Brubaker in deciding if his future with the Pittsburgh Pirates is as a starting pitcher or as a reliever. Following the Taillon trade Brubaker will almost certainly start the season in the Pirate rotation. At that point, the ball will be in his court in terms of what his long term future holds.

Crowe came to the Pittsburgh Pirates earlier this offseason in the Josh Bell trade. Entering last season Crowe was one of the top prosepcts in the National farm system, but he struggled in three MLB starts last season posting a 11.88 ERA and a 12.31 FIP.

That said, there is clearly something the Pirates like about Crowe. If this was not the case he would not have been involved in the Bell trade. Crowe does throw a good cruveball which is something pitching coach Oscar Marin always likes. As the roster currently stands, Crowe seems like a safe bet to be the team’s number five starting pitcher.

Yajure, like Crowe, was added via trade this offseason. While his three MLB outings with the Yankees came as a reliever, he was a starting pitcher throughout the minor leagues. Cherington has also said that Yajure will entering Spring Training with a chance to make the Opening Day roster.

As for Ponce, he seems like the least likely of the four to start the year in the rotation. While Ponce posted a solid 3.18 ERA in 2020, his 2.65 HR/9, 6.66 FIP, 7.08 DRA, and 18.2% strikeout rate did not incite as much confidence. Most likely, Ponce will start the 2021 season in the starting rotation at Triple-A Indianapolis.

Next. Bonds Should be in the HOF. dark

The Pirates could also add rotation help between now and the start of the season. To be honest, it would be a bit of a surprise if they did not add a veteran starting pitcher, if nothing else, for depth. With an injury or two the Pirates could be forced to throw someone such as Cody Bolton into their MLB starting rotation before they are ready.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting 2021 Starting Rotation After Trading Jameson Taillon

Ace… Steven Brault?

Two wild cards

A group of four

Schedule