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Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting 2021 Starting Rotation After Trading Jameson Taillon

By Marty Leap

Aug 30, 2020; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Steven Brault throws a pitch in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 30, 2020; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Steven Brault throws a pitch in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /
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CLEVELAND, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 25: Starting pitcher Mitch Keller #23 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches to Cesar Hernandez #7 of the Cleveland Indians during the first inning at Progressive Field on September 25, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

Two wild cards

After Brault, who is still far from a known commodity, there are question marks galore in the Pirate starting rotation. Righties Mitch Keller and Chad Kuhl would likely slide in behind Brault and both of them are total wild cards.

Keller has spent recent seasons as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but through his first 16 MLB starts he has a 5.81 ERA and a 4.30 FIP. Batting average on balls in play have been the story of Keller’s career. Despite a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 3.19 FIP in 2019, Keller’s ERA was 7.13, largely due to a .475 BAbip. Then in 2020 his strikeout rate dropped to 18.4% and FIP rose to 6.75, but, thanks to a .104 BAbip, his ERA fell to 2.91.

Keller has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starting pitcher, but he needs to harness it better and prove he can do it at in the Majors. Kuhl, like Keller, has plus stuff, but he also has never been able to completely harness it and reach his potential.

After missing over two calendar years due to Tommy John surgery and the COVID-19 pandemic pushing back the start of the 2020 season, Kuhl took the mound again in July. Kuhl went on to pitch an up and down 46.1 innings, posting a 4.27 ERA and a 5.48 FIP. His 22.3% strikeout rate was a career high, but so was his 14.2% walk rate. He also allowed home runs at a career worst rate of 1.55 HR/9. To Kuhl’s credit, though, he helped limit runs as evident by his 4.27 ERA, and outside of a start against the Royals in which he allowed 9 earned runs in 2.1 innings pitched, he had a 2.66 ERA in 2020.

Both Kuhl and Keller have the stuff to be above average MLB starting pitchers, but neither have yet to show that with consistency. However, both will start the season in the Pirate starting rotation. Both also bring serious boom or bust potential to the Pirate starting rotation, if they each pitch to their potential in 2021 the Pirate starting rotation will be much better than anticipated. It could also give Kuhl’s trade value a big shot in the arm.

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