Pittsburgh Pirates: Examining the First Two Months of 2021 Season

Starting Rotation

JT Brubaker has been arguably the best starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He currently holds a 4.20 ERA, 4.81 FIP and 1.24 WHIP through 49.1 innings of work. Up until his previous two starts Brubaker was on fire. He still has a strong 5.6% walk rate to go with a 23.9% strikeout rate. Despite his 50.7% ground ball rate, he still has a 1.80 HR/9 as the long ball has been his biggest problem. His ERA estimators reflect a pitcher who should have an ERA around 3.50-3.60 with a 3.55 xFIP, 3.60 SIERA and 3.54 DRA.

As painful as it might be, we have to talk about Mitch Keller. Keller has been the very definition of inconsistent. He seems to follow every quality start with a blow-up start. So far, he really hasn’t had anything in between. What Keller’s future with the Pittsburgh Pirates is up in the air. He’ll show that ability to go 5-6 solid innings with a handful of strikeouts, but he hasn’t done it at least three games in a row this year. Overall, Keller has put up a 7.41 ERA, 4.85 FIP and 1.80 WHIP, while flashing less than inspiring stuff.

Offseason signee Tyler Anderson has also been a nice surprise this year while competing with Brubaker for the role of staff ace. He currently has a 4.73 ERA, 4.12 FIP and 1.22 WHIP through 51.1 innings. However, this was after a huge blowout loss against the Braves in his last start. His first 7 starts of the season saw him go at least 5 innings and give up no more than 3 runs. He had an 8 start streak of at least 5 innings as well. Overall, he still has a solid 23.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, albeit with a bit of a high 1.40 HR/9.

Prospect Wil Crowe has also gotten a chance to start this season. Crowe has shown some promise in his starts this season but has just a 4.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 5.03 FIP through his 25 innings as a starting pitcher. Walks have been an issue for the right-hander with a 10.2% walk rate, but he’s also given up his fair share of home runs (1.40 HR/9) and has struggled to get strikeouts (20.4%). Crowe has still been above average in exit velocity (88.7 MPH, top 53rd percentile), hard-hit rate (33.8%, top 84th percentile) while showing a fastball with 2484 RPM and averaging out around 94 MPH.

The last spot of the rotation was mainly handled by veteran Trevor Cahill before his injury. Like Keller, Cahill was extremely inconsistent following up each quality start with an extremely poor start. He’s pitched 35.2 innings with a 6.81 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He only has a strikeout rate of just 18.9%. But there were some bright spots about Cahill’s season. He only walked 6.9% of the batters he faced while only allowing home runs at a 1.01-per-9 pace. Cahill also had an outstanding groundball rate of 55.7%. Overall, Cahill had really solid ERA estimators including a 3.99 FIP, 4.00 xFIP, 4.20 SIERA,4.07 DRA and 4.62 xERA.

Opening Day starter Chad Kuhl made just 4 starts before going on the injured list. In these 4 starts he struggled to the tune of a 6.32 ERA, 8.13 FIP, 21.1% walk rate, just an 18.4% strikeout rate and he was allowing home runs at an alarming 2.30 HR/9 rate.

Entering the season there was a lot of concern about the Pirate starting rotation. Through the first 46 games of the 2021 season, these concerns have come to fruition as the Pirate rotation has been among the worst in the National League.