Pittsburgh Pirates: Four Minor League Deals to Consider

Due to the current work stoppage players sign major league deals they can only sign minor league deals. So let’s take a look a four players the Pittsburgh Pirates could sign.

Baseball transactions are currently in a freeze. Due to the work stoppage no players are allowed to sign major league deals. However, non-guarenteed minor league deals are still being made. A handful of teams have signed players to minor league deals to add to their organizational depth. This is something the Pittsburgh Pirates could do.

The Pirates have many holes on the roster, and while they’re not going to be able to fix them all with trades or the free-agent market, the team should see a noticeable amount of improvement throughout the 2022 season. Many of those holes have potential answers awaiting in the minor leagues. But the team could sign some minor league deals to at least add some depth to the organization

Because teams can’t make major league signings right now, I want to take a look at a few minor league deals the Pittsburgh Pirates should consider. This wouldn’t guarantee them much more than an invitation to Spring Training but could end up being solid under-the-radar signings.

Matt Carpenter

Pirate fans should be more than familiar with Matt Carpenter. The infielder has long been a staple of the division rival St. Louis Cardinal  line-up. From 2012 up through 2018, Carpenter was a high-quality hitter. He posted a .275/.377/.471 slash with a .366 wOBA, and 133 wRC+.

Carp had excellent plate discipline, walking at a 13.4% rate, but also had a sub-20% strikeout rate. Plus he was a slugger, posting a .196 isolated slugging percentage and blasting 20 or more home runs for four years straight from 2015 through 2018.

However, Carpenter has fallen on some hard times lately. Since 2019, his numbers have steadily fallen. Throughout these three seasons, Carpenter is batting just .203/.325/.346 with a .298 wOBA, and 87 wRC+. He hit rock-bottom in 2021 when he hit .169/.305/.275 with a 70 wRC+. He was still walking at a strong 14.1% rate but struck out over 30% of the time.

But there is some hope that there’s more left in the tank for the three-time all-star. First, Carpenter posted the lowest batting average on balls in play of his career at just .250. His career average is .310. He still had a healthy 23.4% line drive rate, 49.2% fly ball rate, and ground ball rate of just 27.3%. He still hits the ball hard, and hard frequently. He had a 90 MPH exit velocity and a 42% hard hit rate. Both of which are well above the league average.

Carpenter’s expected stats are also well above average. He had a .341 xwOBA compared to his actual .269 mark. His expected batting line was a very solid .225/.352/.427, which would come out to a .779 OPS and .202 ISO.

Carpenter wouldn’t be the worst minor league gamble. His underlying numbers suggest a player who ran into some bad luck. Will he ever be the player that fans saw in 2012-2018? Probably not. But could he be a solid lefty-platoon power bat who can play first base, second base, and third base? Well if he can play anything like he was expected to, I don’t see why not.

Daniel Vogelbach

Daniel Vogelbach was formerly a top prospect in the Chicago Cub and then the Seattle Mariner organizations. In 2019, he finally got a regular shot at playing time and made the All-Star Game after a hot start to the season. Though he struggled down the line, he still ended up posting a solid .203/.341/.439 line, blasted 30 home runs, walked 16.5% of the time, and overall had a quality 112 wRC+. Now defense wasn’t his strong suit, but he mostly spent his time at designated hitter.

Vogelbach opened the season as the team’s DH in 2020 but struggled. His contract was eventually purchased by the Toronto Blue Jays and after just two games was selected off waivers by the Milwaukee Brewers. Vogelbach ended the 2020 season on a hot streak, collecting 19 hits with 4 home runs and 8 walks in his final 67 plate appearances of the season. This earned him a spot on the team’s 2021 roster.

Vogelbach hit for a .219/.349/.381 line in semi-regular playing time. This led to a .325 wOBA, and 101 wRC+. He was still walking a ton, posting a 16.7% walk rate. Despite looking like the prototypical big slugger, three-true-outcomes kind of guy, he only struck out 22.1% of the time. The problem is that the power he displayed in 2019 didn’t show up in 2021. He blasted 9 home runs in 258 plate appearances and his .163 ISO was solid at best, but nothing to write home about.

While it didn’t show in his power numbers, he still displayed a ton of raw power. Vogelbach ripped the cover off the ball. He had a 91.4 MPH exit velocity and a 48.7% hard-hit rate. The likeliest reason for his lack of home run power was that his FB% fell from 44.8% in 2019 to 35.4% in 2021.

The Pittsburgh Pirates could use another 1B/DH power hitter in the organization. Right now, the team doesn’t have a sure answer at one for the two spots. Yoshi Tsutsugo has first base locked down, but DH is still a bit of a question mark. While I’m not suggesting that Vogelbach be brought in as the immediate answer to DH, there would be no risk in bringing in a high-OBP bat with some pop.

Jed Lowrie

Jed Lowrie had a solid bounce-back campaign in 2021. After appearing in just 9 games in 2019 and missing all of 2020 with the Mets, Lowrie locked on with the Oakland Athletics on a minor league deal for 2021. It ended up being one of the best minor league deals made in 2021.

In 512 plate appearances, Lowrie batted .245/.318/.398 with a .311 wOBA, and 101 wRC+. Overall, about league average production. He also hit 14 home runs. Lowrie had split his time between DH and second base. But his defense up the middle isn’t what it once was. He was worth -11 DRS and -2 outs above average at the keystone.

But there’s a lot to suggest that Lowrie can be a better hitter than he was. Like with Carpenter, Baseball Savant loves the infielder. He was in the top 75th percentile of exit velocity and top 76th percentile of hard-hit rate. There was no expected stat he was below average in. Lowrie had an expected line of .259/.332/.465, which would come out to a .797 OPS and .206 ISO.

Lowrie is older. 2021 will be his age-38 campaign, which is why he’ll probably only command a minor league deal. But how can you not take pretty much a no-risk shot on a guy whose expected numbers look like that? At the very worst, he never gets a shot to play with the Pirates and is released from the non-guarenteed deal. At the very most, he meets his expected near-.800 OPS and you just got a steal of a minor league deal.