Setting Reasonable Expectations for Jordy Mercer

Lost in all of the hoopla about Jeong-ho Kang and his bravado is the fact that Jordy Mercer has evolved into a dependable major league shortstop.  But is dependable good enough for a team expected to contend?  Can we expect Jordy to get better?  Am I overusing question marks?

If I am, it’s because Jordy Mercer is the great unknown to many Pittsburgh Pirates fans.   We see his potential in 2013, then we see an absolutely putrid start to 2014.  We see a very good fielder but also a batter who really struggles without protection.  Just as I did with Starling Marte, I’m here to dissect Jordy and figure out just how high he can go.

Here’s a look at standard batting numbers for Jordy Mercer since he’s been in the majors:

Now, the first thing that jumps out at you is the huge jump in plate appearances for Jordy in 2014.  Mercer swept aside Clint Barmes to easily become the Pirates’ everyday SS, and the 190 extra PAs were a result.  Unfortunately, Jordy had a tough time overcoming that bad start and suffered sizable drops pretty much across the board.  Compounding that were mediocre gains on RBI.  While his K% maintained an above average rate at 16%, while increasing his walks, part of that has to be attributed to his batting 8th for a good chunk of the year.  Let’s take a look at his month-by-month statlines:  

If Jordy Mercer were a used car salesman, and he was trying to sell you his 2014 season as a used car, that March/April month would be the equivalent of buying a car with a flat tire.  “Well don’t worry about that, look at that sweet spoiler we are throwing in!” would be what he would say as he pointed you to his summer numbers.  Bad analogies aside, that start absolutely killed Jordy.  Taking 12 bases for an entire month will NOT get it done, at any level.  Some of that could be attributed to bad luck (his .BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was a paltry .204 during March/April), and some to the overall bad start by the Pirates.  Yet still, one wonders how a young player with so much promise could only slug .182 for an entire month.  10 singles and only 1 double.  In his first month back in the majors in 2013, Jordy hit .271 and slugged .508.  One wonders if the pressure of being “the man” got to Mercer.

So does he have any saving grace?  Absolutely.

Put simply, Jordy Mercer RAKED against left handed pitching in 2014.  His slashline enjoys a considerable jump.    However, as I’m quickly learning with Jordy, everything is a double edged sword.  Even though the AVG and OBP enjoy a nice bump, there is a big dropoff in power and doubles.  At this point Pirate fans might be asking “well what exactly do we expect Jordy to be for our club?”  That’s a great question, and one that I don’t specifically have the answer to just yet.  The Kang signing can be seen as a variety of things.  Taking a flyer on talent, upgrading a position, or further infield insurance for Neil Walker‘s back or Pedro Alvarez‘s struggles. When we look at where he batted in the lineup last year, things might become a bit clearer:  

So where does Clint Hurdle hit Jordy?  The obvious choice is 2nd.  As he can then enjoy the protection that Andrew McCutchen provides.  But oh wait, that’s right, that’s Gregory Polanco‘s predestined batting position.  This is where Jordy Mercer really gets lost in the shuffle.  Batting him second wouldn’t help the Pirates capitalize on Polanco’s speed at the top of the order.  Batting him in the cleanup spot doesn’t make much sense with better options around in Marte, Walker, and Alvarez.  So this  leaves him in the 7th or 8th spot, with 8 being the most likely destination.  Say hello to a lot of intentional walks and sac flies.  As I said at the top of the article, at the end of the day, he is a dependable, major league shortstop.  He fields well, and will give you .265, 10 HR, 45 RBI.   Is that enough for a shortstop in 2015?  Some say yes.

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I suppose I do too, but something about Jordy Mercer always leaves me wanting more.  My point is this:  if the Pirates took a calculated risk by signing Kang thinking he can even be an incremental upgrade over Mercer, then I applaud the move.  You like Jordy Mercer.  I like Jordy Mercer.  Everyone likes Jordy Mercer.  5 years ago, fans would have been thrilled that Mercer was our everyday SS.  Coming off of two playoff appearances, the bar has been considerably raised.  The Pirates have moved on from looking for merely dependable players.

Of course, all of this is pure conjecture until we actually see Kang take a swing against major league pitching.