These Pittsburgh Pirates must play 150 games in 2015

Here’s what we know.  Josh Harrison will be the everyday third baseman heading into the 2015 season.  And that’s it.  So much has been written about Jhay’s miraculous season and his ascension to becoming one of the Bucs’ stalwarts.  The need for him to truly be an “everyday” player now becomes obvious, but let’s look a bit deeper.  The Buccos’ options for leadoff hitters more or less ends with Harrison.  Starling Marte started the year in the number one slot, but as we’ve said before with Marte, he does not excel there.  While both player’s .OBP is similar in the leadoff spot, Harrison enjoys a jump in .SLG percentage by almost .200 points (.535 vs. 354) over Marte.  This includes a total of 191 total bases against Marte’s 65.  Harrison just puts himself into scoring position sooner than Marte when leading off, plain and simple.  With some sneaky speed that might make him a 20-20 candidate, Harrison has the leadoff spot locked down.  Which is all the more reason that he must remain reliable and durable.  If Jhay plays less than 150 games, it could mean trouble for the Pirates, as the seismic force of his loss would shakeup the lineup more than anyone might like.

Our next essential Pirate might surprise you.

Next: Year two of his reign in RF

Sep 14, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates right fielder

(25) reacts in the dugout against the Chicago Cubs during the eighth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 7-3. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

In trading Travis Snider to the Orioles,  Pirates brass sent a clear message to Gregory Polanco.  By removing all conceivable threats to his everyday playing time, management has designated year two of Polanco to be extremely important.  Not only will the trade give Polanco a full spring training with a starter’s mindset, it will also make the Pirates singularly reliant on Polanco in right field.  While Corey Hart and Andrew Lambo may have cameos, Clemente’s Wall will be patrolled by one man through the majority of 2015.

Anything less than 150 games by El Coffee could tell us many things:  bad slumps, injuries, looking lost at the plate, fatigue from his first true full year – all of these can be in play, and all of them spell certain doom.  Tentatively penciled into the number two slot in the order, an extended absence from Polanco could again send shock waves through the rest of the order, much like Harrison.  It is paramount that Polanco ride the peaks for as long as he can, and get out of the valleys as quickly as possible.  Doing so will ensure his steady presence in RF.

For our next crucial Pirate, we move from one corner to the other

Next: Let's partay every day

Sep 25, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder

(6) watches the action from the dugout in the sixth inning of their game against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. The Pirates won 10-1. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

It’s no big secret that everyone is expecting a big year out of Starling Marte.  And why wouldn’t they, what with his amazing numbers in the second half of the season.  For 2015, I fully believe that as Marte goes, so will the Pirates.  With the loss of Martin, Marte’s position in the second third of the lineup becomes ever more crucial.  Likely batting fifth or sixth will afford Marte plenty of RBI chances, and any lengthy absence of his bat in the lineup will hinder the burgeoning Pirate offense.  Marte had shown last year that his plate discipline could get better with each passing game, and this fact alone could provide many RBI chances for whoever bats behind him.  Add stellar defense to the mix, and it’s clear that Marte is almost irreplaceable, which is a great compliment to him this early in his career.

Above all others, the choice for the most important Pirate for 2015 should not be a surprise to anyone.

Next: The single most irreplaceable Pirate

Jul 12, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) hits the game winning home run during the eleventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The Pirates defeated the Reds 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

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After Andrew McCutchen went on the shelf in early August, the Pirates limped to a 5-8 record.  In a vacuum, that record wouldn’t look so bad when your consensus best player is out.  What I’d like to highlight here is the domino effect of any extended absence by Cutch.  Losing Cutch leaves a crater at the number three spot.  That is bad enough on its own but when coupled with any other injury (Neil Walker, anyone?), it can be downright disastrous.  Picking a random boxscore during the time in August of 2014 when both Walker and Cutch were out shows me that Starling Marte led off, and Harrison batted third.  This is the point where you tell me that Harrison batting third isn’t all that bad, heck he was second in the NL in batting last year.  And I would agree with you, but these are just not optimal sports for these hitters in this lineup.  The number three hitter is the most important hitter in a lineup for many more reasons than just traditionally being your best hitter.  It allows the players around you to excel in batting orders that play to their strengths and needs.  We haven’t even talked about defense and leadership yet, either.  Losing Andrew McCutchen for any significant amount of time creates so many problems for the Pirates and allows opposing pitchers not to work as hard, thus extending their starts, saving bullpens, I could go on and on.  As if you didn’t know this already, but Cutch must play 150 games this year, if not more.

This was not an easy list to make.  One could easily make arguments for Walker, Jordy Mercer, or even Pedro Alvarez.  But when I look at these four players and the impact that they can have on the lineup around them, it forces me to think of them as belonging in another tier of importance.

If these four can play 150 games or more, I think the Pirates have a great shot at being a top 5 offense in the National League in 2015.

And if one of them misses extended time, the offense would be middle of the pack at best.