Vegas sets over/under for wins at 83.5 for the Pittsburgh Pirates

As reported by numerous outlets, Las Vegas odds makers have put out the over/under for each team’s win total for 2015.  The Pittsburgh Pirates were mightily disrespected, being assigned an over/under of 83.5 wins.  The initial reaction out of Pirates fans was one of disgust, followed by an immediate stampede to online sports books to place their wagers.  At first, it seems like a lock that the Pirates will win at LEAST 84 games.  But is it really that much of a sure thing?  Today staff writer Gary Wallace and I will present both sides for you to consider.

Jason Rollison:  The Pirates will definitely win more than 83 games

I don’t know how anyone can look at this rock solid club and not expect them to win at least 88 games, duplicating their win total from last year.  Offensively, the Bucs are loaded, with no obvious question marks.  Even if Pedro Alvarez offensively gives you the exact same production as last year, it would still be an upgrade over the 2014 1B platoon of Ike Davis and Gaby Sanchez.  Everyone is enamored with bringing up the Russell Martin loss every time the 2015 Pirate outlook gets brought up, but people need to realize just how much of a career year 2014 was for Martin.  The slashline of .290/.402/.430 included all-time highs in .AVG and .OBP.   Those numbers likely won’t drop completely off the face of the earth, but they will drop.  Meanwhile Martin’s other offensive production can be made up from a variety of sources, not the least of which is “building-block” type years from Starling Marte and, especially, Gregory Polanco. Looking at the team’s pitching, it’s clear that the rotation is somewhat-top heavy with Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, and A.J. Burnett manning the top three spots in the rotation.  I’ve previous ranted about how awesome Cole’s secondary pitches look, and Liriano continues to have an amazing swinging strike percentage.  Energized by his return to the Burgh, Batman will give us 200 IP, a near .500 record, and 175 K minimum.  I’m very comfortable with some combination of Vance Worley, Jeff Locke, or Charlie Morton at the back end.  The bullpen will continue to impress, and is now so versatile that Clint Hurdle can matchup with just about any team in baseball in late inning situations.Add to that the fact that the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds both got considerably worse from 2014, and reports that Kris Bryant may not join the Cubs to start the season, I feel confident in taking the over for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They will win at LEAST 84 games.

And now, for the counterpoint:

Gary Wallace:  I will take the under.

The starting pitching should be fine.  Fransisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole will have good years this year, barring injury.   Where the pitching is going to let the Pirates down is in the bullpen.  Mark Melancon and Tony Watson had career years last year, and the sabermetrics really don’t support the gaudy numbers they had.  Both players are due for a correction.  If they falter, who will replace them?  John Holdzkom?  Antonio Bastardo?  The Pirates needed to spend money to bolster their bullpen this offseason, instead, they traded away Justin Wilson and filled the 40 man roster with a bunch of minor league hopefuls.  The Pirates are going to lose a lot of games late this year!! Andrew McCutchen has been the best player for the Pirates (and the league, for that matter) for the past 3 years.  But, in Russell Martin’s short stay here, he has been by far the most important player to the team.  His leadership of a young pitching staff has been unquantifiable, and his defense behind the plate is something the Pirates haven’t had since Tony Pena left.  An argument can be had that the catcher is the most important player in baseball, and an argument can certainly be made that Martin is the best player at the most important position in baseball.  Losing Martin was huge for this team, replacing him with an unproven Francisco Cervelli sets the Pirates back quite a bit. This section is where we talk about where the Pirates have improved themselves in the offseason beyond their players being a year older and having a year more experience.  This is where we point out the big offseason acquisitions that were major upgrades from last year.Go ahead, I’ll wait.Exactly.The Pittsbugh Pirates are going to finish below .500 this year…

So there you have it.  Gary is completely in the camp of the under while I remain unfazed.  But what do YOU think?  Are you taking the over, or the under?  What’s your win total?  Let us know in the comments or on social media!

Next: Possible Bullpen Back-Up Plans