These Pittsburgh Pirates hurlers must start 30 games or more

Gerrit Cole started 22 games in an injury-shortened 2014.  He still managed to be a very productive member of the rotation, as he was only one of two in the staff to post double figures in wins with 11.  Those 22 starts formed a total of 138 innings pitched.  Cole posted a 3.65 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.  He had 138 strikeouts meaning he struck out exactly nine batters per nine innings pitched.

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Now that the formalities are out of the way, let me tell you my secret sauce for this list:  innings per start.  Okay, maybe it is a little more obvious than I thought, but Cole ended 2014 having averaged 6.3 innings per start, good enough for the second most per start on the entire Pirates rotation.  I don’t have to tell you that having a starter go 6+ innings in a start is huge for a ballclub; in fact there’s a stat for that in quality starts.  What puts Cole in another stratosphere in relation to that 6.3 number is his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.45, which was actually lower than his rookie year (3.57).  When you combine those numbers plus the reliability that he can go out and save your bullpen on nights when they need some rest, the need for Cole to stay healthy becomes more pronounced than ever before.  Oh, and there’s this little fact:  Cole also averaged 6.3 strikeouts in his starts.  As I’ve learned, Cole’s ‘stuff’ is developing right before our eyes.  Now that he’s equipped with a nasty breaking ball as well as a deadly slider, I want to see at least 30 starts for Cole in 2015 so that we may get the most out of his talent.

Our next pitcher still has a lot left to offer, but can he maintain his streak of 30+ starts per year?

Next: You can always depend on superheroes

A.J. Burnett has started 30 or more games for seven straight seasons.

I wanted to lead with that because that is flat-out incredible.  Burnett is now 38 years old, and for a pitcher who throws as hard as he does to maintain that level of dependability from his early 30s to his now-late 30s is almost unfathomable.  In 2014, A.J. started 34 games, good enough to tie with nine others for the major league lead.  Not bad for a guy in the twilight of his career who also happened to be dealing with a gruesome groin injury.  The question looms large:  Can we rely on Batman to do the same in 2015?  I can’t find a reason why not.  A highly-motivated A.J. Burnett is going to be a difference-maker.  If we look on the surface at his stats from 2014, they are less than desirable.  An ERA of 4.59, a WHIP of 1.41, and a league-leading total in earned runs allowed overall cannot be dressed up, not matter how much I try.  Only A.J. can truly know how much the groin injury played a part in that, but what’s more troubling than any of those numbers is the cliff that his strikeout-to-walk ratio fell off of in 2014.  After a very good 3.12 in 2013, A.J. limped to a 1.98 SO/W ratio for 2014.  Despite those bad numbers, Burnett still gave the Phillies 6.3 innings per start on average, the exact same as Gerrit Cole did for the Bucs.  A.J. was brought here to eat innings.  30 or more starts is old hat for him, and that’s all that’s fair to ask of him at this point in his career.

There is but one more pitcher on my list of essential Pittsburgh Pirates starters for 2015.

Next: The biggest surprise on this list really isn't a surprise at all

Yes, that’s right. In my view, Vance Worley is an extremely important piece of the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation.  Despite only starting 17 games after being called up in June, The Vanimal led the Pirates staff with an average of 6.5 innings pitched per start.  Incredible for a guy that epitomized the “scrap heap” pitcher finds of the Ray Searage/Clint Hurdle era.  Remember that strikeout-to-walk ratio I’ve been yammering on and on about?  Yeah, Worley led the staff in that metric as well (3.59).  A caveat to that is that that amazing ratio has less to do with volume of strikeouts more than it does with rarity of walks.  Worley issued only 22 free passes all year, an average of only 1.3 per start, or 1.8 per nine innings if you prefer.  What more could you possibly want from a back-end starter?

In my very first piece on these pages, I made the case for Vance Worley over Jeff Locke, and I would make that case over and over again.  These numbers prove it.  I’m very aware that this is a major assumption that Worley can come close to replicating those numbers again over a full season, but I put my faith in Uncle Ray that he can affect lasting changes in The Vanimal.  For a “fifth starter” to be able to give you 30+ starts, quality ones at that, would be a godsend.

Let’s take a quick moment to address the elephant in the room.

Next: What about Papa Francisco?

Sep 27, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher

(47) pitches during the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off of the richest free-agent contract in team history, it was tough to leave Francisco Liriano off of this informal list.  For me, the number that stood out the most was 5.6.  That is the average number of innings per start for Liriano in 2014, and that number is 5.8 for his Pirate tenure.  While I’m not putting all of my stock in that proverbial basket, the fact that he was the only starter below six speaks volumes.  Additionally, his SO/W ratio was “only” 2.16, despite having 175 strikeouts on the year, mostly due to 18 more walks in 2014 from 2013.  This despite only three more starts year-to-year.

For the record, I am very pro-Liriano and very happy the Pirates brought him back, even at that money.  I can’t help but have this very un-scientific feeling that if he doesn’t start as many games as he should, that would be ok.  As evidenced by the past two seasons, a more effective Liriano in the stretch run can be just as important as a full workload during the year.

However, if the pitchers I’ve previously highlighted in this piece did not make 30 or more starts, it would mean a lot of different problems for our rotation.  Gone would be our proven workhorse, our best young pitcher, and our best back-end option.  Any of those hurlers missing significant time would lead to the rotation being shuffled more than anyone would like, and put added pressure on equally fragile pieces like Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke (that’s mental fragility).  The biggest problem it would cause could be an overworked bullpen, which is never desirable.

And there you have it.  Going into writing this piece I was pretty sure Liriano would be here but as the numbers point out, other pitchers may just end up being as important than Frankie, if not more.

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