What should we expect from Gregory Polanco in 2015?

A tall, lanky frame, a cannon for an arm, exceptional plate discipline, and power and speed to match were just a few of the traits that made Gregory Polanco the can’t-miss prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates at the beginning of the 2014 season. The pre-2014 10th-ranked prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America slashed .328/.390/.504 in 2014 at Triple-A Indianapolis en route to a June 9th call up, starting in right field the next night against the Chicago Cubs. After a torrid start to his major league career, Polanco cooled off and eventually lost the starting right field job to Travis Snider. After all was said and done, Polanco batted .235 with a 59/30 K/BB ratio. Needless to say, it wasn’t the start Polanco or the team was hoping for last year.

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So, is the 2014 season a sign of things to come for the Pirates’ future right fielder, or can we expect him to be a perennial all-star? Well, the reality could be at any end of the spectrum. But one thing is true: considering he has yet to play a full season, and only has 277 career major league at-bats, we can’t be too quick to judge. In fact, it takes many young players time to adjust to the major leagues before they become comfortable playing against the best. Let’s take a couple examples on both sides of the ball as reasons why we shouldn’t be too hasty in situations like this.

A tall, lanky frame, a cannon for an arm, exceptional plate discipline, and power and speed to match were just a few of the traits that made Gregory Polanco the can’t-miss prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates at the beginning of the 2014 season

Mike Trout is on a path towards easily being one of the 10 greatest baseball players of all time. Baseball fans know the Trout of the past 3 seasons where he’s finished in the top 2 of AL MVP balloting each year. But in 2011, when he was first called up to the big leagues, Trout batted .220 with a 30/9 K/BB ratio throughout the course of the season. We all know what he’s done since then.

Clayton Kershaw, easily on pace to become the greatest pitcher of all-time, didn’t get off to such a hot start either. While he has led the majors in ERA for 4 straight years, his 2008 season didn’t go too well. After being called up on May 24th of that season, Kershaw went on to pitch to a 5-5 record, 4.26 ERA, 4.08 FIP, and 1.495 WHIP in 107 2/3 innings pitched. He has since gone on to pitch at historically great levels.

What does this say about Polanco?

Having been compared to near-Triple Crown winner California Chrome, Polanco is expected by fans and the Pirate organization alike to make big strides forward in 2015. MLB.com fantasy projections have Polanco slashing .264/.336/.385 with 13 HRs, 62 RBIs, and 27 SBs (stolen bases) this year. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for Fangraphs has Polanco slashing .259/.313/.401 with 14 HRs, 73 RBIs, and 26 SBs. These both project Polanco to be an average to above-average outfielder, and if either of these analyses hold true, Polanco would greatly improve over his rookie season.

But after rejecting a 7-year offer from the Pirates last March, Polanco chose to bet on himself, and maybe for good reason. He knows he still has all the tools to become a perennial all-star, and went out and added 12-15 pounds of muscle this offseason in order to add more power. With these tools, the added muscle, and his sense of confidence, I would expect Polanco to at least play to the projections, and possibly break out to make the Pirate outfield the deadliest in all of baseball.

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