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Non-tender deadline looms large for Pittsburgh Pirates

By Jason Rollison |
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Sep 13, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) hits a solo home run against the Milwaukee Brewers during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

As the non-tender trade deadline looms, the Pittsburgh Pirates face tough decisions.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are trying not become victims of their own success.

With trade talks still actively in play with some of their arb-eligible players, the team now must face Wednesday’s non-tender deadline. This is the day that all teams must have made an offer to their eligible players or have the player hit free agency.

It’s no secret that the team will have to pony up some serious cash in arbitration to keep some major cogs in a Pirates uniform. As a refresher, here is the list detailing the player with their service time and projected figure courtesy of the projections from MLB Trade Rumors:

As we look at this list and attempt to analyze it, let’s look at the no-brainers. Hughes, Watson, Mercer, and Cervelli all provide excellent value at their projected figures – though Watson may soon price himself out of Pittsburgh with another excellent season.

Things get a bit cloudier when we look further. Although many had thought that he could be a strong non-tender candidate, the loss of J.A. Happ opens the door for Locke to hit the arbitration process. As a left-handed starter, Locke still provides some value at a $3.5 million salary, but the team would be better served by looking to sign two starting pitchers to shore up the starting rotation.

Stewart is an interesting case. I’ve previously written about the strong organizational depth at catcher, and Stewart may end up getting squeezed out by Elias Diaz. Stewart’s projected salary isn’t prohibitive by any means, but it’s fair to wonder if that $1.6 million –  $1 million if we factor in Diaz’s salary as a replacement – could be better spent elsewhere such as on a value bullpen arm. I expect that the Pirates’ plans for the veteran backstop could go either way.

Now that we’ve touched on some of the easier decisions, let’s look at arbitration cases that warrant more conversation.

Next: He's from Pittsburgh

Oct 4, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Walker (18) hits an RBI single against the Cincinnati Reds during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Neil Walker is originally from Pittsburgh.

Just making sure that you knew.

Considered one of the best offensive second basemen in the game, Walker has certainly done enough to warrant the $10 million+ salary he will likely get for 2015. All indications are that he is not in the Pittsburgh Pirates agenda beyond next year.

The debate on Walker’s future fuels the fire of many Pirates front-office critics, but the simple truth is easy: At 30 years old – 31 before he hits free agency – Walker’s chances at an extension with his hometown club are all but evaporated. Talks between Walker and the club have been contentious for quite some time. His departure is now an inevitable uncertainty.

However, as much as Neal Huntington can say that Walker’s future in 2016 is not tied to Jung Ho Kang‘s injury, it’s hard not to believe the exact opposite.

Even if Kang wasn’t injured, the Pirates are not apt to let Walker …walk away with a year of control left. Fans should brace themselves for a farewell tour of sorts.

Next, we look at the single-most polarizing Pirate.

Next: The First Baseman

Sep 13, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) celebrates the dugout after hitting a solo home run against the Milwaukee Brewers during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Pedro Alvarez had 27 home runs – many of the solo variety – and led the league in errors at 1B by a wide margin. Like Walker, Alvarez has been actively shopped. The Pirates never found a taker for the slugger, and now are left with a choice to make.

With Michael Morse as the only other first baseman on the 40-man roster with MLB experience, will the team decline to tender an offer to Alvarez?

It’s tough to answer that, because the debate has become a purely philosophical one at this point. Pundits and fans alike are in agreement that Alvarez’s future is not in Pittsburgh, so the argument becomes how the departure should be handled. Are the Pirates prepared to not tender Alvarez a contract, and let him walk away without any compensation?

Do they take the first deal – any deal really – that has an inkling of upside for club now or in the future?

It’s hard to imagine trading a hitter capable of 30+ home runs for a bullpen arm and a prospect, or even less. But Alvarez’s struggle to learn the position after a full season may force Huntington’s hand.

If the team has no choice but to not offer Pedro a contract, it can be seen as a failure on many levels by many different parties. To be sure, Alvarez did not take to the position and for that he should be held accountable, but Huntington is also to blame here. It’s easy with hindsight, but it’s easy to wonder if the team waited too long to seriously put Alvarez on the market. It’s clear that his absolute struggle in the field has drastically dropped his trade value – by 50% to be exact, as National League teams are almost entirely off of the table – and the continued mistrust of Alvarez against LHP doesn’t help.

It doesn’t get any easier when we next consider the best reliever in the National League last year.

Next: Free-reign Shark?

Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Melancon led all of baseball in saves last year with 51, a figure even more staggering when remembering that he blew only 2 saves all year.

With a $10 million projected salary, it’s not hard to understand that Melancon’s days as a Pirate are numbered.

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But, here’s the thing: in order to trade him, he has to be under contract. Thus, the Pirates will offer Melancon a contract and head to arbitration.

The Pirates are in a bad way with Melancon’s contract. In no way would they want to pay a closer $10 million, especially given the team’s history with closers. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which the team has Melancon on the books for that huge salary, which handicaps their ability to trade him. To be sure, the teams that are likely to be interested in Melancon won’t balk at the price tag, but with the knowledge that the Pirates are already in the market to trade the hurler, the return goes down significantly.

Tying back to the theme of paying for their success, the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to be forced into some moves that they would rather not have had to do as a result of a fantastic 98-win season. It’s true that Huntington and his staff may have some plans in mind or talks in progress that won’t be hindered by tendering their heavy hitters before the winter meetings, but the inability to put a deal together before the non-tender deadline could severely impact potential returns.

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