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The Pittsburgh Pirates have an unsolved mystery at first base

By Jason Arias |

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

After a series of signings that left fans looking for more, the Pittsburgh Pirates crossed another name off their Christmas shopping list by signing John Jaso to a 2 year, $8 million contract.

While Jaso may not be a household name to all just yet, this signing is arguably the best pick up of the offseason for the Pirates. Jon Niese may have a bigger impact on the team this season but the loss of Neil Walker will hurt the team much more than $4 million – Jaso’s pay this season – will.

However, to call John Jaso the best addition of the offseason means the Pirates have had a disappointing one thus far. Replacing Pedro Alvarez, A.J. Burnett and Neil Walker with Jon Niese, Ryan Vogelsong and John Jaso is a step in the wrong direction for a team that seemed one or two pieces away from championship contention. Had it not been for all-time-great performances by Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta in consecutive years, the outlook may be very different for the Pittsburgh Pirates and their fans.

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Instead, the Pirates seem to be happy to play for 2nd place in the NL Central – and yet another Wild Card game – while the Cubs dominate the market. I’ll admit, there wasn’t a whole lot for the Pirates to work with but there wasn’t much that needed to be fixed in the first place. The outfield is set, the rotation and bullpen have a good foundation with some interchangeable parts and they have one of the better catchers in the game in Francisco Cervelli.

But the infield in Pittsburgh isn’t so crystal clear anymore; even Josh Harrison and Jung-ho Kang are unknown commodities over the course of a full season. Middle infielders are versatile and usually contribute more defensively but the one spot you can forfeit defensive prowess for the offensive presence is at first base.

There should be some stability at first base as well. Your first baseman should be somewhere in the middle of the lineup, clearing the bases all summer long. That couldn’t be further from the truth for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who now have a puzzle at first base with a bunch of pieces that don’t fit.

Strikeouts 

One of the major reasons the Pittsburgh Pirates were willing to cut ties with Pedro Alvarez was because he struck out far too much (26.7% in 2015). In 2016, they’ll be heading in with the trio of Michael Morse, who struck out more at 29.7%, Sean Rodriguez, who was about as bad as Alvarez at 26.3% and John Jaso, who only struck out 18.1% of the time but is a major drop off in power. Among those with at least 100 plate appearances, Morse and Rodriguez were 4th and 8th, respectively, in strikeout rate by first basemen last season. All this for $14.5 million – $6.5 million of which was spent in the last two weeks – makes it hard to understand why they let Alvarez walk.

Defense 

Okay but Pedro was really bad at defense and so the upgrade there alone will be worth it, right? Not so fast. Sean Rodriguez was the team’s best defensive first baseman last season but he is much better at second and third base and will primarily be used there early in the season. The Pirates called John Jaso a first baseman in their announcement tweet but he’s played just 5 innings there in 336 career games. Michael Morse’s best position has been first base throughout his career but he saw a decline last season. Despite not recording an error at first base last season, Morse still graded out as a negative on the defensive side, according to baseball-reference.com. Alvarez was extraordinarily bad at first base last season, but the Pirates are probably still looking at a negative defensive WAR from their first basemen in 2016.

Power outage 

The power that Alvarez brought to the lineup is undeniable and has yet to be replaced. Forget his 111 home runs over the past four seasons, or the 21 FanGraphs projects him to have next season (the same amount as Morse and Jaso combined are projected for), the Pirates aren’t getting that production back. But power comes in the form of extra base hits as well, which two advanced stats – Isolated Power and Weighted On Base Percentage – do a great job of emphasizing. As you can see, Pedro has a healthy advantage in isolated power:

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And Jaso, who benefits from doubles and walks, with just a slightly higher wOBA than Pedro and the rest:

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Doubles are helpful but these three simply can’t make up the run production that Alvarez brought to the team:

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Platoon-proof

Fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates seem so ready to accept the platoon between Mike Morse and John Jaso at first base but there’s more than handedness to take into account. Morse really struggled against lefties last season, batting .235 and striking out nearly 30% of the time. He had just 4 extra base hits in 78 plate appearances against lefties in 2015 and his power was useless as Morse put the ball on the ground 56.5% of the time against southpaws (only Wilin Rosario had a higher rate amongst right-handed first basemen).  Again, Sean Rodriguez likely wont see much time at first, but he also struggled against lefties, batting .236 in 2015. In the other batter’s box, Jaso posted a solid line of .285/.365/.465 against righties this season but he too struggles against lefties, with a career average of .178 and just 1 home run against them. I honestly can’t even come up with a plan for how the Pirates are going to use these guys.

Conclusion

As it stands now, the Pirates have three pieces that don’t complement each other at all. Sean Rodriguez is the best defensively of the bunch but he’ll see more time at second and third base. John Jaso will probably have the best offensive year of the three but isn’t really a power threat and struggles against lefties. Mike Morse is supposed to be the power bat but his numbers have begun to decline and he also doesn’t hit lefties very well. So, assuming Morse is the starter just based on salary and his power, but since he’s weak against lefties – just like Jaso – then when do you use Jaso? Jaso will probably wind up subbing in for Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte at times as well, but if he’s only used as a fill-in, then the Pirates will never tap his full potential.

The Pittsburgh Pirates – barring any more moves – have a problem at first base that’s going to take some time to work itself out. What is your prediction for the Pirates’ 2016 first base situation?

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