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The Pittsburgh Pirates Will Rely On Getting On Base In 2017
The Pittsburgh Pirates should have one of the best offenses in the National League in 2017, and that offense will be built around on-base percentage.
.320. What is .320 you ask? Well, that is the Major League average for on-base percentage. Why is that important? It is important because in 2017 the Pittsburgh Pirates’ offense will rely on the team’s on-base percentage.
Many people, wrongfully, think power is the most important facet to a Major League lineup. In order to have a successfully Major League lineup the most important facet is on-base percentage. If players are not getting on base, then power does not do a team much good.
Look at the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates for example. In 2012 the Bucs hit 170 home runs which ranked fourth in the National League. Additionally, their 448 total extra base hits ranked eighth in the National League.
However, the Bucs checked in 10th in the National League in runs scored in 2012 with just 651 runs. This equates to 4.02 runs per game, which was below the National League average of 4.22 runs per game in 2012. A big reason why the Pirates were below league average in runs scored despite being fourth in the National League in home runs in 2012 was an inability to get on base.
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In 2012 the Pirates had a team on-base percentage of just .304. This ranked 14th out of 16 National League teams in 2012. Furthermore, it was well below the league average of .320.
Fast forward to 2014. During the 2014 season the Pittsburgh Pirates scored 682 runs (4.21 runs per game) which was fourth best in the National League. Not coincidentally, the Pirates had a team on-base percentage in 2014 which was the second highest in the National League.
In 2015 the 98-win Pittsburgh Pirates once again checked in at fourth in the National League in runs scored (697 runs, 4.30 runs per game). This was despite the Pirates finishing 10th in the National League in home runs (140) and eighth in extra base hits (459), both of which were below league average in 2015. However, their .323 team on-base percentage ranked fourth in the National League.
Despite winning just 78 games, the 2016 Pirates scored 729 runs (4.5 runs per game) which ranked sixth in the National League. This was despite the Pirates finishing 12th in the National League in home runs (153) and tied for ninth in extra base hits (462). However, they ranked third in the National League in team on-base percentage (.332).
The past three seasons should have taught Pirate fans at least one thing. That one thing is that on-base percentage is extremely important. Each of the past three seasons the Pirates have finished sixth or higher in the National League in runs scored, and in each of those seasons they have finished fourth or higher in the National League in on-base percentage.
Looking ahead to 2017, the Pittsburgh Pirates will once again have an offense that is built around on-base percentage. Due to this, it should not come as a surprise that the Pirates project to, once again, have one of the best offenses in the National League in 2017.
FanGraphs’ projections for 2017 project the Pittsburgh Pirates to average 4.43 runs per game. This is tied with the evil, nasty, vile, no good rotten St. Louis Cardinals for the fifth highest total in the National League.
For 2017, the Pittsburgh Pirates project to have a team on-base percentage of .327. This is, of course, higher than the Major League average OBP of .320. An on-base percentage of .327 would have been good for fifth best in the National League in 2016.
When looking at the projected started eight for the 2017 Pittsburgh Pirates, five of them have a career on-base percentage higher than the league average of .320. And one of the three who do not is Gregory Polanco who has had an on-base percentage of .320 or higher each of the past two seasons.
Furthermore, the Pirate bench is filled with strong on-base players. Adam Frazier (.356), David Freese (.345), and John Jaso (.359) all have a career on-base percentage higher than .320. So does Philip Gosselin (.331) who will most likely end up with the final bench spot.
When looking at the team’s 2017 ZiPS Projections, they are very bullish on the Pirate offense and getting on base. Andrew McCutchen (.370), Francisco Cervelli (.362), John Jaso (.350), Josh Bell (.347), Jung Ho Kang (.338), Starling Marte (.336), David Freese (.330), and Gregory Polanco (.322) all project to get on base at an above league average rate in 2017.
In recent years the Pirates have proven if you flood the base paths with base runners that the runs will come. All signs point toward the Pirate offense being the same way in 2017, and due to their suspect pitching staff the Bucs will need a strong offense again in 2017.
Additionally, the Pirates’ three best hitting prospects at Triple-A Indianapolis also possesses abvoe average on base skills. Austin Meadows, Jose Osuna, and Kevin Newman should all see time in the Major Leagues in 2017, and all three have been above league average on-base players throughout their Minor League careers.
In the Minor Leagues Austin Meadows owns a .368 on-base percentage and a 10.7 percent walk rate, Kevin Newman owns a .362 on-base percentage and an 8.8 percent walk rate, and Jose Osuna owns a .330 on-base percentage and a 7.2 percent walk rate. So, it is not just at the Major League level that the Pirates are emphasizing on-base skills.
Next: Comparing Kang To The Rest Of The NL
The Pittsburgh Pirates have finished in the top six in the National League in runs scored each of the past three seasons. A big reason for this has been a new emphasis on getting on base and the Pirates being successful at doing just that. And due to their ability to get on base, the Pirates should have one of the National League’s best offenses once again in 2017.
.320. In Major League Baseball, .320 is a very telling number.