Ivan Nova’s Success In Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Pirates right-handed starter Ivan Nova has pitched well with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  He has exceeded everybody’s expectations.  Some of the keys to doing so have been changing his pitches and sequencing.

Ivan Nova came over from the New York Yankees on August 1, 2016, for prospects Tito Polo and Stephen Tarpley.  The move was a head scratching one, at the time Ivan Nova was on an expiring contract and posted a 4.41 ERA and 4.40 FIP, when adjusted for the park and league those numbers are a 106 ERA- and 104 FIP-, in his time in the Bronx.  Nova was below average as a starter, and his 2016 saw him post a 4.90 ERA and 5.10 FIP (116 ERA- and 116 FIP-).

The Pirates were theoretically in contention at the time, as they were 52-51 entering the day, and they were only four games out of the second wild card spot.  However, they built for the future a few days prior when they traded Mark Melancon for Felipe Rivero.  Andrew McCutchen had a wOBA of .308 and a wRC+ of 92 at the end of July, making him eight percent below average.  The move seemed rather Ryan Ludwick like, a trade that was made to appear as though they were buying, but in reality knew their playoff chances were slim, baseball prospectus had the Pirates chances at 6.4 percent on July 31.

However, Ivan Nova came over and pitched extremely well, posting a 3.06 ERA and 2.62 FIP (76 ERA- and 66 FIP-) in his 64.2 innings.  Nova has matched that in 2017, in terms of ERA, posting a 2.91 ERA and 3.70 FIP (69 ERA- and 88 FIP-) in 96 innings.  In Nova’s 160.2 innings in the black and gold, he has posted a 2.97 ERA and 3.27 FIP (72 ERA- and 79 FIP-).  So how did Nova transform from a well below pitcher to pitching above average?

Nova changed his pitch arsenal and has soon gone from the four-seam being his primary pitch (used 41.64 percent of the time in New York) to the sinker (49.66 percent of the time in Pittsburgh).  But the other note that should be made, is his changeup increase.  In New York, Nova threw the pitch just 3.98 percent of the time (3.90 percent from 2015-16), and in Pittsburgh it has jumped to 7.41 percent.  He’s now playing off the sinker and changeup.  Below is the data from Baseball Prospectus regarding his pitch sequencing.

Since changing to primarily a sinker ball pitcher, Nova has doubled up on the pitch more than he doubled up the four-seam when that was his primary pitch.  But by increasing his changeup usage, Nova can also play off of that pitch.   He has been more willing to double up on the pitch and play other pitches off of it.  In fact, despite using the four-seam less, Nova has thrown the four-seam more after he throws a changeup now than when he was a Yankee.

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Nova has changed his pitches, and therefore his sequencing because of the change from a four-seam to a sinker.  Part of pitching is not making the same pitch pairings over and over again, at which point the batter knows what it is coming.  That could explain some of his third time through the order struggles.  But so far he has sequenced better than before, playing the sinker and changeup off each other, and that could help explain some of his success he is having as a Pirate.

*Numbers from fangraphs as of June 20th