2 Pirates pitchers could follow similar trajectory as top prospect Bubba Chandler

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Bubba Chandler in the third round of the 2021 draft. Since then, he has ascended to the top of prospect rankings. MLB Pipeline ranks him No. 15, but Baseball America holds him in even higher regard, putting him at No. 9. Chandler made his debut on the mound in 2022 and could soon be in the Pirates’ Major League rotation.

Like most high school draft picks, it’s taken Chandler a few years to fully develop. But looking at the Pirates’ system right now, which recent draft picks could take a similar path to the Major Leagues as Chandler has? These two high school pitchers, who the Pirates have selected in the last two drafts, stand out as their next Bubba Chandler-esque projects.

2 Pirates pitching prospects who could follow Bubba Chandler's path

Zander Mueth

Zander Mueth was the Pirates’ second-round competitive balance pick in 2023. He was their first pitcher taken after Paul Skenes. He signed for nearly $1.8 million, an overslot deal compared to his slot value of around $1.13 million. Not only does Mueth project to have multiple above-average offerings, but he is also one of the Pirates’ most deceptive pitching prospects.

Last season, Mueth tossed 74 innings between the Florida Complex League and A-Ball Bradenton. We’ll start with the positives. Mueth had just a 2.31 ERA with a 23.8% strikeout percentage and only allowed two home runs. Both were in the FCL, and he did not allow one home run in 22.2 frames at Bradenton. His ground ball percentage also approached 50% at 48.8%. But Mueth’s biggest struggles were with command, as he handed out a walk to 15.1% of opponents and walked (24) more batters than he struck out (23) at A-Ball.

Stuff-wise, Mueth has two pitches that project as plus offerings. His sinker already averages out around 93-94 MPH and topped out at 97 at A-Ball. His mid-80s slider induced a whiff rate of over 40% at A-Ball. His change-up has about average movement and velocity, making it a third pitch he could rely on. But, as he progresses, he’ll need to continue to make strides with his ability to locate consistently, especially with his slider and changeup.

Mueth has a ton of things working in his favor. His long wingspan makes his pitches look faster than they are. His average extension off the mound is 7.1 feet, which adds about one tick of velocity to his stuff, so a 94 MPH sinker from Mueth will look like a 95 MPH pitch to a batter. He also has a very low arm angle, coming out of an arm slot that is nearly sidearm. Mueth was topping out at 97 MPH in just his age-18/19 season. He turns 20 in late June.

Mueth still has plenty of time to improve his command and limit walks better. Remember, Chandler also struggled with walks early in his career and had a BB% over 16% in 2022 when he split the year between the FCL and Bradenton. Mueth is going to open the year at Bradenton before he turns 20, showing he’s already one of the more talented pitchers in the Pirates’ system. Both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline rank him as one of the Pirates' top 10 best prospects.

Levi Sterling

The second high school draft pick the Bucs have in their system with a very high ceiling is Levi Sterling. Sterling was also a competitive balance pick, but in the first round. Taken 37th overall, the right-hander signed for just under slot value. When the Bucs selected him, Sterling was one of the youngest players in the draft, as he turned 18 last September.

Unlike Mueth, Sterling does not have big velocity. He only sits in the low 90s with his fastball. His best secondary is his changeup, which Baseball America states flashes plus shape. Sterling has a mid-70s curveball, which is his best breaking offering, but his low-80s slider is a worthwhile pitch as well. He commands his stuff very well, with BA projecting him to have plus control. But there is still plenty of time and room for Sterling to improve upon his game and add velocity.

Sterling stands at 6’5”, 200 pounds, giving him a strong frame to work with. He’s already shown an ability to locate his fastball effectively. Sterling has well above-average athleticism for a pitcher, which helps him repeat his delivery on the mound. The right-hander split his time between the mound and shortstop. Now, he’ll sharpen his focus to the mound. 

Sterling may not throw hard, but easily has the potential to add more velocity. Even sitting around 93-95 MPH isn’t out of the question. Average velocity on a pitch that has above-average command and movement would make his fastball a great offering. He has the frame, athleticism, projectability, and pitchability to be one of the Pirates’ best pitching prospects within the coming years.