2 prospect breakouts that prove the Pittsburgh Pirates have a pitching factory

The Pittsburgh Pirates are starting to be known for their pitching (and almost only their pitching). They have a quality Major League rotation and bullpen right now, with some young arms like Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft now showing promise in the Major Leagues. Plus, they have the best pitching prospect in all of baseball in Bubba Chandler. But those young arms showing promise was expected. They’re some of the Pirates’ better prospects. More unexpectedly, the Pirates have had two key breakouts that only further cement the fact they have a pitching factory in the minor leagues.

The first is Antwone Kelly. Kelly had rather unimpressive numbers in 2024, posting a 4.43 ERA and a 4.74 FIP while walking 11.3% of opponents and striking out 21.7% of them at Bradenton. 2025 has been a much better story. Despite his struggles at A-Ball, Kelly was sent to High-A Greensboro to open the year, and it looks like a great decision by the Pirates. His ERA and FIP now sit at 3.33 and 3.07, respectively, across 51.1 innings of work. 

The right-hander now has a 30.4% strikeout rate and a walk rate of just 7.1%. Strikeout rate minus walk rate can be a good indicator of a pitcher’s ability. Kelly’s 23.4% K%-BB% is the 16th-best among all minor-league pitchers who have made at least eight starts this year. Overall, only 14 pitchers with that many starts made have a strikeout percentage of at least 30% and a walk rate below 10%. 

Recent Pirates pitching prospect breakouts only further improve their image when it comes to pitching development.

Kelly is now a top 20 prospect in the Pirates’ system while tossing a fastball that can hit 100 MPH. He is likely on the cusp of getting promoted to Double-A Altoona. However, Wilber Dotel is already there, and his breakout is also a sign of the Pirates’ ability to develop pitchers. Dotel had even worse numbers than Kelly last year. Dotel posted a 5.33 ERA, 5.77 FIP and walked 11.6% of opponents with a middling 22.8% K% for Greensboro.

But Dotel was also aggressively promoted to the next level of the minor leagues despite his struggles. The hard-throwing right-hander now has a 3.93 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP in 55 frames. Dotel has upped his strikeout percentage to 28.2% but, more importantly, he has lowered his walk percentage to 8.1%. Like Kelly, Dotel is doing very well in terms of K%-BB%, sitting at 20.1%, the seventh-best qualified mark among all Double-A hurlers this season.

One very impressive aspect of both their seasons isn’t just the significant improvements they have made, but also how young they are for the level of the minor leagues they are currently stationed at. Kelly is only in his age-21 season and is the ninth-youngest arm at High-A to have made at least 10 starts. Dotel is the seventh-youngest Double-A pitcher with 10 or more starts, as he is just 22 years old and won’t turn 23 until late August. 

Bubba Chandler, Hunter Barco, Mike Burrows, and Braxton Ashcraft performing well this year was expected. They’re all currently top-15 prospects in the Pirates’ system, and two of them - Chandler and Barco - can now be found on top 100 lists. But Kelly and Dotel mostly came out of nowhere. Kelly wasn’t on any top 30 prospect lists, and Dotel only appeared on one list (Baseball America’s). But both right-handers are now making a case to be two of the Pirates’ better pitching prospects. Both rank top 20 in the Bucs’ system by BA, both can hit 100 MPH, and both could be big contributors in the very near future, based on the sort of progress they’ve made this season.