Bill James 2011 Projections Pittsburgh Pirates


So who said Bill James was optimistic?

James has pulled his head out of the fortune teller booth and has projected Neil Walker at .270/.324/.438 with a 7.3BB% and 17.7K% to go along with a .168ISO in 2011.  James also has Walkers BABIP in play dropping from a .340 to a more realistic .303.  Oh yeh, we want a new reading Bill.   Put your head back into those tarot cards.

The next thing you probably want to tell us is that the Pirates are going to have a shitty year in 2011 right?

We aren’t buying it Bill.

What James thought of Andrew McCutchen,  Jose Tabata, and Pedro Alvarez are here.  

Bill James calls for a 10.4BB% for Pedro to go with a 28.7K% with a .224ISO.  Pedro’s projected to hit 27 bombs and his line is .277/.352/.501.  He calls for GFJ to hit 23 more bombs and his slugging and OPS to jump along with his BABIP.

Now to the hard stuff.

James McDonald is predicted to go just 132 innings.  Gulp?   Don’t stress.  Trying to throw a dart and guess what pitchers are going to do is hard work.  A bounce back for Ross the Boss?  Nah. An improved season for Maholm?   Eh.    Duke?   Sigh.    Charlie Morton had to get better.  Good Lord we need some pitching miracles in 2011. 

James throws the dart and comes up with 24 saves for the K machine Hanrahan   although he will be down from 2010 according to Bill James and his crystal ball.   Meek projects well too and is pegged for 12 saves.  I could live with Resop putting these numbers up especially the reduced walks, but we certainly hope his crystal ball is cracked on Will.

So…my question is this.  Has Bill James every missed entirely with a team?  He hasn’t?  Shake that Bic pen a few times Bob, it’s time to get rid of that FSN cash.


WHYGAVS had a nice post up  last season about the projections of several key Pirates.  Taking a look back at it now, it’s a nice historical peek at just how much 2010 was about development.  Pat is a prophet. 

Bill James is a former watchman at Stokely Van Camp Pork and Beans plant who hit it big. 

Me?  Just another guy praying for a winner.

You are on your own for the rest of the Pork and Beans guys look at the Pirates roster over at Fan Graphs or get it all here.