Looking Back on Another Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction


As we wrote last week, looking back at some of the predictions for the 2013 is a joyful time after the Pittsburgh Pirates had a 90 plus win season.  The one we will check out today is Who Won The Winter? written by The Wall Street Journal.  WSJ looked at each of the moves MLB teams made and then ranked each team based on how many projected marginal wins it added or lost.

The article used WAR and forecasts were made by Dan Szymborski, infamous for his Zips projection system.  The projections are based on weighted averages of four years of data with adjustments for what age season the player is in along with trends for those ages.

The Blue Jays were the darling heading into the 2013 season.  The trendy picks always fail.  The Jays were to improve 10.7 pWAR and escape their twenty year absence from the playoffs.

The Cubs were at number two.  Yeh.  The Cubs.  The key pickups were Edwin Jackson and Carlos Villanueva.

The third hole went to the Indians thanks to splashy moves likie Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher.

The big hit was getting Boston right, but it didn’t predict playoffs–in fact, it called the playoffs a long shot for Boston.  Another miss was Philly at five.

The Pirates  came it at six.  Gotta love the write up.

"6. PIRATES (+4.4) Key acquisitions: C Russell Martin (2.3), SP Francisco Liriano (2.0) Key losses: None Outlook: After 20 consecutive losing seasons, the Pirates seem at least capable of cracking .500. They were only two wins short last year."

WSJ Who Won Winter?