The Three Keys to Success for Gregory Polanco in 2015

In my recent pre-spring training mailbag column, I took a brief look at what type of numbers Gregory Polanco would have to put up to “justify his hype.”  To me, El Coffee’s performance in 2015 will be a huge indicator of the Pirates’ success.  If he takes a nice forward stride, it would do so much for Clint Hurdle‘s lineup, and open up things for quite a few batters such as Neil Walker, Starling Marte, and of course, Andrew McCutchen.  Should he regress, the Pirates could be in for some patchwork lineups, especially now that Travis Snider has packed up his lunchbox and moved to the Beltway.  The question remains:  what exactly does he need to do to take that step forward?  Here’s how I see it:

Improve vs left-handed pitching

As a young left-handed hitter, you would expect Gregory Polanco to take his lumps against southpaws.  Even taking that into account, I’m excited to see how he approaches lefties in 2015.  Looking at these numbers a bit deeper, his K rate against LHP came in at 24%, compared to 20% against RHP.  After about a half year in the majors and only 312 plate appearances, the fact that he is that close in that category is very encouraging.  Additionally, GP got progressively worse as the season went on against left-handers (continuing the theme of his 2014 overall), so these numbers figure to go up across the board.

Is it any wonder the kid lost steam after his first month in the majors?  The buildup was incredible.  Not only would Polanco propel our offense to new heights, but he would fill all the potholes on the Pittsburgh roads too.

The Snider trade made Gregory Polanco an unquestioned everyday player, so he will get his hacks against both lefts and rights.  Starting spring training with that mindset, he figures to put the work in to also draw more walks against lefties, which should bring his numbers up and build his confidence.  But confidence isn’t everything.  For Polanco, he will still have to go out and be an everyday major league professional hitter.  Part of that is…

Working the pitch count  

There’s a lot to digest here.  Simply put, Gregory Polanco is a batter who NEEDS to work counts.  While that can be true for every batter in MLB, it’s especially true for him.  What is most alarming here is the numbers after a 1-2 count, with his slashline dropping to a miserable .182/.182/.205.  Even though more disciplined hitters can battle back from this, it’s almost a 90% outcome that Polanco is out when faced with 1-2.  This tells me that he has not quite learned how to battle back to give himself a chance at saving his at-bat.  The goofiest of all of these numbers is his slash when the count is full.  Somehow the guy can hit .225 on 3-2 but get on base at a .426 clip.  In the words of the immortal Ron Burgundy, “that doesn’t make any sense.”  Will these improve?  I’m sure that they will, but they aren’t going to skyrocket overnight.  Perhaps instead of trying to work his way BACK into counts, GP can be a little more selective and lay off the first offerings he sees.

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Finally, I believe the biggest key to Gregory Polanco having a successful year in 2015 is something that can’t be quantified by any numbers.

Just play the game

I’ve said it in previous columns that there was such a weird feeling around Gregory Polanco’s 2014 call to the majors.  A lot of will-they and won’t-they for the front office.  Extension talks breaking down.  You name it, it happened.  Is it any wonder the kid lost steam after his first month in the majors?  The buildup was incredible.  Not only would Polanco propel our offense to new heights, but he would fill all the potholes on the Pittsburgh roads too.  When that didn’t happen, there were actually fans out there clamoring for him to be sent back down.  In my view, I truly feel that hitting spring training 2015 without any ambiguity is going to do wonders for #25.  Can you imagine a world where Gregory Polanco can just go out, play baseball, hit gap shots and round bases with that ridiculous stride of his?  It’s easy if you try.  His bursts of outstanding play in 2014 has shown the fans, the front office, the coaching staff, his teammates, and, most importantly himself, that he belongs in the majors.  2015 could be the year when he drives that point home.