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Pittsburgh Pirates: A look at the 2015 team’s offensive ZiPS projections
March 20, 2013; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; A detailed view of a Pittsburgh Pirates hat and glove in the dugout before the game against the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Foldy-USA TODAY Sports
On Friday, Fangraphs’ ZiPS projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates were released, and Dan Szymborski’s look at the upcoming season was once-again something all fans should, at the very least, take a look at.
With plenty of under-the-radar moves this winter that will change how the Pirates line up on a daily basis – including the full-time position shift of slugger Pedro Alvarez – as well as the trade of Travis Snider, this year’s projections offer a glance at what fans might expect as Pittsburgh seeks their third consecutive National League Wild Card berth – or even an NL Central crown.
Here’s a look at some of the highlights of the position player projections put together by Szymborski.
Aug 25, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez (24) reacts after hitting a solo home run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Pedro Alvarez slated for 25 long-balls
One of the biggest question marks for the 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates is their young, albeit talented slugger, Pedro Alvarez, who will man first base for the club this season for the first time.
The defensive shift was made to open up a spot at the hot corner for the talented Josh Harrison, who put together a very impressive 2014 campaign for manager Clint Hurdle. Not only does it give the Bucs’ skipper a better defense on a daily basis, but it may just allow Alvarez to focus more on getting things back on track at the dish.
After a breakout 2013 campaign in which he broke out with 36 home runs and 100 runs batted in, Alvarez stumbled a bit last year, hitting just 18 homers and driving in 56 runs while batting .231/.312/.405 – the most noticeable drop coming in his slugging percentage.
This year, Szymborski has Alvarez slated for a happy medium between his disappointing 2014 campaign and his All-Star 2013 season. The former second-overall pick is slated for 25 home runs to go along with 76 runs batted in, with a .231/.304/.439 triple-slash.
Simply put, Alvarez will never be a contact hitter. But if he can bring a little more power to the lineup on a regular basis, he’ll fill the role Hurdle has for him just fine.
Sep 23, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop
Jordy Mercer(10) dives back into first base against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Jordy Mercer projected to outperform Jung-ho Kang
The biggest acquisition of the offseason for Pittsburgh was Korean slugger Jung-ho Kang, who came to the Steel City on an $11 million deal – which could be a steal given he led the KBO with 40 home runs in 2014. However, the Korean league is known to be hitter-friendly, and Kang’s numbers aren’t expected to be elite here in the States.
According to the ZiPS projections, Kang will post a 1.5 WAR in just over 500 plate appearances – a decent mark for a big league rookie. To go along with that, the infielder is projected to hit 14 home runs, drive in 57 runs and add 26 doubles – while posting a slash-line of .230/.299/.389 – which leaves plenty to be desired.
Perhaps more surprising is the fact that some of Kang’s main competition for playing time moving forward, Jordy Mercer, is set to outperform his Korean counterpart, with a 1.9 WAR to go with his 10 long-balls, 50 RBI and a much more sightly .254/.304/.390 line.
This will be a key battle to keep an eye on this season. If Kang struggles to get on base, which is expected, look for Mercer to seize the opportunity in 2015.
Jul 23, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Josh Harrison (5) greets right fielder
Gregory Polanco(25) after Polanco scored on a bases loaded walk against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco set to wreak havoc
The youthful duo of Gregory Polanco and Josh Harrison has Pittsburgh Pirates fans excited – and for good reason.
The pair played an integral role in the Bucs’ success in 2014 – and according to the ZiPS projections for 2015, will do so once again – with both their bats and their legs – which could prove to be a deadly combination in the hunt for the division crown.
Polanco, the speedy corner outfielder, will likely be a 20-20 candidate later on in his big league career, but is projected for a 14-homer, 26-steal campaign in 2015. Neither is expected to strikeout in even 20 percent of their respective at-bats, which only makes them a bigger threat in the Pittsburgh lineup.
Harrison’s biggest contributions will likely come on the defensive end of things, replacing a poor defender in Pedro Alvarez at the hot corner. That being said, the work of these two youngsters in the years to come will do a lot to decide where Pittsburgh sits come September – and hopefully – October.
Once again, Cutch is clutch
Another year, another outstanding display of consistence from Andrew McCutchen.
At least, that’s what the ZiPS projections believe is in store for the face of the franchise in the upcoming season. Yet again, the dreadlocked center fielder is set to lead the team in several offensive categories, including home runs, runs batted in, batting average and BB%.
He probably will not flirt with the MVP-caliber number’s he’s put up in year’s past, but it’s abundantly clear that there are few players in Major League Baseball as important to their respective teams as McCutchen is to the Pirates. Set for a 24-home run, 88 RBI season, the outfielder will once again be the biggest offensive threat in Clint Hurdle’s lineup.
With one Gold Glove, an MVP and four All-Star selections in tow, Andrew McCutchen will once again be the leader in the clubhouse and both on and off the field – and, again, the Pirates will rely heavily upon him in 2015.