These Pittsburgh Pirates must play 150 games in 2015

Sep 11, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder

(22) and second baseman

(18) walk off the field after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Pirates defeated the Phillies, 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

In August of 2014, the Pittsburgh Pirates went through a truly horrid stretch brought on mainly by injuries.  Andrew McCutchen was savagely thrown at by some barbarians posing as snakes and Neil Walker‘s back had seized up again.  The result was a series of games that very nearly cost the Pirates their second consecutive playoff berth.  Yet, even after recalling the horror that was that month, as well as other injuries throughout the year to players like Russell Martin and Pedro Alvarez, I was still surprised when I discovered that no everyday Pittsburgh Pirate played 150 games last year.  Jordy Mercer, aka Mr. Dependable, came closest at 149.

Put bluntly, there will never be another Cal Ripken.  The landscape of today’s baseball is not the same as it was when Cal broke Lou Gehrig‘s streak.  Managers and front office put more stock in regular days of rest for players to keep both mind and body fresh than in Ripken’s time.  In addition, the trend of more pitchers pitching inside ends up with a lot of bumps and bruises for batters, requiring a very short one or two day break to heal up.  The closest streak in recent times to Cal’s was surprisingly Prince Fielder‘s 547 consecutive games which ended in May of 2014.  Add it all up, and it becomes very clear:  no one will ever come come close to 2,632.

Today I would like to highlight the four current Pittsburgh Pirates that must play at least 150 games for the team to truly perform like the contender that many think they are.   Some of these may be obvious, some not so much.  While it’s true that the Pirates have more versatile depth this year than year’s past, these are the guys who have to be out there as much as possible.

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Sep 14, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates right fielder

(25) reacts in the dugout against the Chicago Cubs during the eighth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 7-3. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

In trading Travis Snider to the Orioles,  Pirates brass sent a clear message to Gregory Polanco.  By removing all conceivable threats to his everyday playing time, management has designated year two of Polanco to be extremely important.  Not only will the trade give Polanco a full spring training with a starter’s mindset, it will also make the Pirates singularly reliant on Polanco in right field.  While Corey Hart and Andrew Lambo may have cameos, Clemente’s Wall will be patrolled by one man through the majority of 2015.

Anything less than 150 games by El Coffee could tell us many things:  bad slumps, injuries, looking lost at the plate, fatigue from his first true full year – all of these can be in play, and all of them spell certain doom.  Tentatively penciled into the number two slot in the order, an extended absence from Polanco could again send shock waves through the rest of the order, much like Harrison.  It is paramount that Polanco ride the peaks for as long as he can, and get out of the valleys as quickly as possible.  Doing so will ensure his steady presence in RF.

For our next crucial Pirate, we move from one corner to the other

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Sep 25, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder

(6) watches the action from the dugout in the sixth inning of their game against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. The Pirates won 10-1. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

It’s no big secret that everyone is expecting a big year out of Starling Marte.  And why wouldn’t they, what with his amazing numbers in the second half of the season.  For 2015, I fully believe that as Marte goes, so will the Pirates.  With the loss of Martin, Marte’s position in the second third of the lineup becomes ever more crucial.  Likely batting fifth or sixth will afford Marte plenty of RBI chances, and any lengthy absence of his bat in the lineup will hinder the burgeoning Pirate offense.  Marte had shown last year that his plate discipline could get better with each passing game, and this fact alone could provide many RBI chances for whoever bats behind him.  Add stellar defense to the mix, and it’s clear that Marte is almost irreplaceable, which is a great compliment to him this early in his career.

Above all others, the choice for the most important Pirate for 2015 should not be a surprise to anyone.

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Jul 12, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) hits the game winning home run during the eleventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The Pirates defeated the Reds 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

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After Andrew McCutchen went on the shelf in early August, the Pirates limped to a 5-8 record.  In a vacuum, that record wouldn’t look so bad when your consensus best player is out.  What I’d like to highlight here is the domino effect of any extended absence by Cutch.  Losing Cutch leaves a crater at the number three spot.  That is bad enough on its own but when coupled with any other injury (Neil Walker, anyone?), it can be downright disastrous.  Picking a random boxscore during the time in August of 2014 when both Walker and Cutch were out shows me that Starling Marte led off, and Harrison batted third.  This is the point where you tell me that Harrison batting third isn’t all that bad, heck he was second in the NL in batting last year.  And I would agree with you, but these are just not optimal sports for these hitters in this lineup.  The number three hitter is the most important hitter in a lineup for many more reasons than just traditionally being your best hitter.  It allows the players around you to excel in batting orders that play to their strengths and needs.  We haven’t even talked about defense and leadership yet, either.  Losing Andrew McCutchen for any significant amount of time creates so many problems for the Pirates and allows opposing pitchers not to work as hard, thus extending their starts, saving bullpens, I could go on and on.  As if you didn’t know this already, but Cutch must play 150 games this year, if not more.

This was not an easy list to make.  One could easily make arguments for Walker, Jordy Mercer, or even Pedro Alvarez.  But when I look at these four players and the impact that they can have on the lineup around them, it forces me to think of them as belonging in another tier of importance.

If these four can play 150 games or more, I think the Pirates have a great shot at being a top 5 offense in the National League in 2015.

And if one of them misses extended time, the offense would be middle of the pack at best.