These Pittsburgh Pirates hurlers must start 30 games or more

As well as the 2014 Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation held it together, the dirty little secret of that rotation was that only one pitcher started 30 or more games.  And that pitcher, Edinson Volquez, has left town.  Francisco Liriano came close, with 29.  There is a disturbing trend brewing in this regard, as seen by the fact that, even prior to 2014, the Pirates have only had four starters start 30+ games during the Clint Hurdle era, spanning 2011 through 2013.   Of those, A.J. Burnett had done it twice, James McDonald did it once, and Jeff Locke surprisingly had 30 starts in his up-and-down 2013.

The 30-game threshold for pitchers is nothing new, and has been used as a benchmark to measure a pitcher’s worth for years.  30 games signifies durability and dependability in today’s game.

In this article I will be highlighting the pitchers that I think MUST start at least 30 games for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015.  The factors that I have used to determine my list are all of the usual pitcher measuring sticks:  ERA, WHIP, etc.  But I will also look at some underlying metrics that may surprise you, leading to a surprising inclusion on this list.

Let’s get started with the obvious choice.

Next: Our first choice brings the sizzle, now he needs to bring the steak

A.J. Burnett has started 30 or more games for seven straight seasons.

I wanted to lead with that because that is flat-out incredible.  Burnett is now 38 years old, and for a pitcher who throws as hard as he does to maintain that level of dependability from his early 30s to his now-late 30s is almost unfathomable.  In 2014, A.J. started 34 games, good enough to tie with nine others for the major league lead.  Not bad for a guy in the twilight of his career who also happened to be dealing with a gruesome groin injury.  The question looms large:  Can we rely on Batman to do the same in 2015?  I can’t find a reason why not.  A highly-motivated A.J. Burnett is going to be a difference-maker.  If we look on the surface at his stats from 2014, they are less than desirable.  An ERA of 4.59, a WHIP of 1.41, and a league-leading total in earned runs allowed overall cannot be dressed up, not matter how much I try.  Only A.J. can truly know how much the groin injury played a part in that, but what’s more troubling than any of those numbers is the cliff that his strikeout-to-walk ratio fell off of in 2014.  After a very good 3.12 in 2013, A.J. limped to a 1.98 SO/W ratio for 2014.  Despite those bad numbers, Burnett still gave the Phillies 6.3 innings per start on average, the exact same as Gerrit Cole did for the Bucs.  A.J. was brought here to eat innings.  30 or more starts is old hat for him, and that’s all that’s fair to ask of him at this point in his career.

There is but one more pitcher on my list of essential Pittsburgh Pirates starters for 2015.

Next: The biggest surprise on this list really isn't a surprise at all

Yes, that’s right. In my view, Vance Worley is an extremely important piece of the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation.  Despite only starting 17 games after being called up in June, The Vanimal led the Pirates staff with an average of 6.5 innings pitched per start.  Incredible for a guy that epitomized the “scrap heap” pitcher finds of the Ray Searage/Clint Hurdle era.  Remember that strikeout-to-walk ratio I’ve been yammering on and on about?  Yeah, Worley led the staff in that metric as well (3.59).  A caveat to that is that that amazing ratio has less to do with volume of strikeouts more than it does with rarity of walks.  Worley issued only 22 free passes all year, an average of only 1.3 per start, or 1.8 per nine innings if you prefer.  What more could you possibly want from a back-end starter?

In my very first piece on these pages, I made the case for Vance Worley over Jeff Locke, and I would make that case over and over again.  These numbers prove it.  I’m very aware that this is a major assumption that Worley can come close to replicating those numbers again over a full season, but I put my faith in Uncle Ray that he can affect lasting changes in The Vanimal.  For a “fifth starter” to be able to give you 30+ starts, quality ones at that, would be a godsend.

Let’s take a quick moment to address the elephant in the room.

Next: What about Papa Francisco?

Sep 27, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher

(47) pitches during the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off of the richest free-agent contract in team history, it was tough to leave Francisco Liriano off of this informal list.  For me, the number that stood out the most was 5.6.  That is the average number of innings per start for Liriano in 2014, and that number is 5.8 for his Pirate tenure.  While I’m not putting all of my stock in that proverbial basket, the fact that he was the only starter below six speaks volumes.  Additionally, his SO/W ratio was “only” 2.16, despite having 175 strikeouts on the year, mostly due to 18 more walks in 2014 from 2013.  This despite only three more starts year-to-year.

For the record, I am very pro-Liriano and very happy the Pirates brought him back, even at that money.  I can’t help but have this very un-scientific feeling that if he doesn’t start as many games as he should, that would be ok.  As evidenced by the past two seasons, a more effective Liriano in the stretch run can be just as important as a full workload during the year.

However, if the pitchers I’ve previously highlighted in this piece did not make 30 or more starts, it would mean a lot of different problems for our rotation.  Gone would be our proven workhorse, our best young pitcher, and our best back-end option.  Any of those hurlers missing significant time would lead to the rotation being shuffled more than anyone would like, and put added pressure on equally fragile pieces like Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke (that’s mental fragility).  The biggest problem it would cause could be an overworked bullpen, which is never desirable.

And there you have it.  Going into writing this piece I was pretty sure Liriano would be here but as the numbers point out, other pitchers may just end up being as important than Frankie, if not more.

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