Projecting the optimal Pittsburgh Pirates batting order

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ burgeoning offense is set to break out in a big way in 2015.  From career years from Starling Marte, Neil Walker, and Josh Harrison, to a tantalizing debuts from Gregory Polanco, the Bucs’ offensive attack took great strides in 2014, and left fans wondering what new highs 2015 would offer.  Would Pedro Alvarez acclimate well enough at first to stay in the lineup and approach his 2013 numbers?  Would the loss of Russell Martin and Travis Snider hurt the run-production on the field and off of the bench?

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Most of those questions remain to be seen.  The great thing about the Pirates’ everyday lineup is the flexibility that it can provide Clint Hurdle.  The countless permutations give Hurdle excellent match-up options, as when you have a roster as deep as this one, you can create so many different lineups.  I don’t envy Clint’s job in finding the perfect, everyday batting order with all of these moving parts.  One need only look to a player’s splits to see that where hitters hit in the lineup matters a great deal.  For example:  A player like Starling Marte has all of the tools to bat anywhere in the lineup, but seems to excel when batting second or sixth.  Some batters need the protection of a good batter behind him.  And then a dynamic player like Andrew McCutchen doesn’t need any protection and can be a rock to build an offense around, but one wonders what his numbers would look like if he had better protection behind him.

Today we are asking our writers and our readers what their perfect, optimal, everyday batting order looks like.  You’ll see our takes and then a few of your own.  This is a pitching-agnostic approach, so we will assume these are against RHP.  Let’s get started.

Next: Tyler Waite and Justin Frazee check in

Mar 9, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Walker (18) hits a RBI double during the first inning of a spring training baseball game at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Frazee‘s order looks like this:

1. Josh Harrison 2. Jordy Mercer 3. Andrew McCutchen 4. Neil Walker 5. Pedro Alvarez 6. Starling Marte 7. Gregory Polanco 8. Francisco Cervelli

Justin’s take:  Jhay is obviously the best lead-off hitter option for the Pirates.  Remember when McCutchen had to lead off because of our dearth of options?  Those days are long-gone, thankfully.  Mercer has historically performed well in the two-spot, and I think the competition with Kang will drive him this year.  Do I really need to explain McCutchen?  For the cleanup sport, I think it’s Neil Walker’s to lose.  If he builds on his career year, this could be great protection for Cutch.  Walker has earned this spot.  It’s time for Alvarez to put up or get dfa’d or traded. His bat needs to come out early and often. We know he will strike out once or twice per game but he needs to limit the Ks and put balls in play. We also know when he puts balls in play he has success as his career BABIP is .295 while his career avg is just .235.

Marte has hit well at number six.  To keep the pressure off, I’d like to see Polanco in at seven, possibly switching with Mercer should Jordy struggle.  Cervelli at eight is his starting point but potential to move up in order if he performs well.  Needs to stay healthy as the most games he’s played in a season was 93 back in 2010.  He is another player that may thrive outside of the NYC spotlight but pirates fans will have him under a microscope as he attempts the impossible, replacing Russell Martin.

Tyler Waite‘s order looks thusly:

1) Polanco 2) Harrison 3) McCutchen 4) Alvarez 5) Marte 6) Walker 7) Mercer 8) Cervelli 9) Pitcher

Tyler explains:  To me, there are only 2 locks for the Pirates’ lineup in 2015: the pitcher spot and McCutchen, who will continue to bat 3rd. That leaves 7 spots to optimize a potentially potent offense. Cervelli is somewhat of a question mark, and although Mercer can make a claim for the 2nd spot, I feel that there are other, deadlier hitters on the team that can contribute more ahead of them in the lineup. A huge difference maker will be the cleanup spot: I see Walker and Alvarez primarily in contention for that place, yet Alvarez has to be given one more shot at it, given that the team has already put its support behind his move to 1st base and is hoping for a 2013 version of “The Bull.” Walker and Marte are more power-driven hitters than Harrison and Polanco, and would best serve the team by batting later in the lineup. Polanco should be given another chance to leadoff, and Harrison’s speed would complement his at the top of the order. This team could very well help pace the National League in runs once again in 2015.

Next, the Rum Bunter editorial staff weighs in.

Next: Just Optimize It

Mar 9, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates right fielder Gregory Polanco (25) stands at the plate during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the Minnesota Twins at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Rum Bunter founder Tom Smith took an entirely different approach.  In Smitty’s words:

We aren’t under the belief that lineup optimization is a life or death thing.  But since Jason’s post idea was better than shoveling snow, we messed around with a lineup optimizer, added splits, tossed in some ground-ball percentages, and after all of it–surprise! 1. Andrew McCutchen 2. Neil Walker 3. Starling Marte 4. Josh Harrison 5. Francisco Cervelli 6. Pedro Alvarez 7. Jordy Mercer 8. Pitcher 9. Gregory Polanco

He continues:  Surprise! The optimizer kept telling us the Pirates need to hit their pitchers eighth. God, the Pirates pitchers suck at hitting. But, wow were surprised and interested when we saw Polanco as the player in the nine spot.

Seeing Polanco hit in front of McCutchen will happen eventually, so why not in 2015? This lineup would drive some old school Pittsburghers insane which is always cool with me. Pencil it in Clint!

This is so crazy it’s brilliant and it just might work.  But for me, I’m more of a traditionalist and here’s how I see the batting order shaping out:

1.  Harrison 2.  Marte 3.  McCutchen 4.  Alvarez 5.  Walker 6.  Polanco 7.  Mercer 8.  Cervelli

I asked myself what my thoughts were in putting my order together and here’s what I said to myself:  There are no better leadoff options on this team than Harrison.  I would like to see Jhay take a few more walks last year, as he preferred to make contact, and his high .BABIP kept his numbers on that career trajectory.  Any Rum Bunter reader who has been with us for even a short while knows I have beaten the drum of Marte batting sixth, but after more thought, I’m giddy at the thought of Marte’s speed right in front of Cutch.  I chose Alvarez over Walker as my cleanup because I think he deserves an honest shot there at least to start the season.  Walker being a switch hitter at five could cause matchup problems.  The rest of the lineup is pretty clockwork, but I like Polanco above Mercer to give the youngster more RBI chances.  Cervelli and Mercer could easily flip depending on whose bat is hot.

Next, we’ll round out our staff predictions before we delve into reader thoughts.

Next: Tuna and Jon turn in their lineups

Mar 3, 2015; Dunedin, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Starling Marte (6) hits and reaches base on an error during the first inning of the spring training baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Florida Auto Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Big Tuna agrees with me on Marte.  Here’s his lineup:

1. Harrison 2. Marte 3. Cutch 4. Alvarez 5. Walker 6. Polanco 7. Mercer 8. Cervelli

His reasoning?  

Harrison in the leadoff for no other reason aside from the fact that Marte struggled in that spot last year. I think Marte would be a more effective lead off man because of his speed and OBP. Despite Marte’s early struggles he ended up with a higher OBP% than Harrison. He stole 30 bases as opposed to Harrison’s 18. Surprisingly though, they both have similar caught stealing % (36/39). I’d look for Harrison to be aggressive on the bases this year and embrace the leadoff spot. For some reason Marte just couldn’t get it together batting first. And having Cutch bat 3rd will give him some better pitches to swing at. Cutch 3 because he’s Cutch. Alvarez gets the cleanup until he swings his way out of it. Walker is a solid 5. Good OBP, Ave, and has some pop. Polanco will most likely move up in the lineup at some point in the season, but to take the pressure off him, he bats 6th. Mercer is an underrated hitter who had he not started out extremely slow in April his BA would have been much higher than .255. He’s a .270-275 hitter. Cervelli with his no batting gloves goes 8th.

What really becomes interested in when Kang is inserted into the lineup, what the order looks like then. Either way, man is our team awesome.

Jon Anderson is known around these parts for his unique takes.  Here’s another:

1. Josh Harrison, 3B 2. Starling Marte, LF 3. Andrew McCutchen, CF 4. Pedro Alvarez, 1B 5. Neil Walker, 2B 6. Gregory Polanco, RF 7. Jordy Mercer, SS 8. Francisco Cervelli, C

He writes: Please note that my lineups are dependent on if Jeong-ho Kang proves to be a useful big league hitter. If he does show comfort against big league pitching, you’re going to see him in the lineup a lot, and in my opinion you should see him in the middle of the lineup because of his power potential. I’m also all about Pedro Alvarez hitting clean-up against righties. Pedro has been a pretty consistent home run threat in his time in the majors, despite hitting for very low average and striking out a ton. With all the talent around him, you can afford that low average and high strikeout rate as long as he’s hitting homers at his usual clip. There should be a lot of men on base for him this year, and all it takes is one swing to win a game for the team sometimes.

I’m also not sold on Gregory Polanco. He showed a lot of holes in his swing last year and I think he has a lot more growing up to do that isn’t going to happen right away. He’ll show flashes and have hot streaks, but I don’t think he’s solid enough to be relied on as a middle of the order bat yet.

This team doesn’t have a prototypical leadoff hitter. Starling Marte and Josh Harrison are the only ones in consideration and neither of them walk or see a lot of pitches. i gave the edge to Harrison here just because Marte strikes out way more than J-Hay and has more power, so you’d rather have him at the dish with men on base. I won’t be surprised if Harrison disappoints at the plate this year and has to drop down towards the bottom of the lineup. At that point you’d hope that Kang and/or Polanco has been hitting well so you can slide one of them up into a power spot and maybe move Neil Walker into the two spot.

Seems to me that the Pirates are going to use a ton of different lineups this year, it’ll be interesting to see what Hurdle comes up with.

So these are our ideas for the optimal batting order for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Before we get to our readers’ picks, here’s the consensus batting order from  us, followed by the number of votes for that player in that position:

1 – Harrison (4)
2 – Marte (3)
3-  McCutchen (5)
4 – Alvarez (5)
5 – Walker (3)
6 – Polanco (3)
7 – Mercer (4)
8 – Cervelli (3)

A pretty solid lineup if you ask me.  Looking at the votes here and reading everyone’s reasoning, it’s clear that the only real surprise is Alvarez getting such support for the cleanup spot.  I agree that I think he can excel there with the right mindset and approach.  We will  absolutely live with the Ks and .240 average if he can be a run producer akin to his 2013 levels.

Now, it’s time for the best readers in the business to weigh in.

Next: Readers share their lineups