Pittsburgh Pirates’ 2015 starting rotation: four things to know

Feb 19, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers warm up before Thursdays workout at Pirate City. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

The 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation has been set.  Sort of.

While announcing that Francisco Liriano will be the team’s opening day starter, Hurdle also told Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh-Post Gazette that the rest of the rotation will be comprised of Gerrit Cole, A.J. Burnett, Vance Worley/Jeff Locke, and Charlie Morton, in that order.  A few eyebrows were raised at this news, as not only is the battle between Locke and Worley still unresolved, but Morton received what looked like a demotion at first glance.  Hurdle later explained that the goal is to not have teams face Burnett and Morton back to back as their skillsets are similar.

Now that the rotation is set, I’d like to point out four things that you may or may not know about the Pirates’ rotation from last year and how it might affect this year’s performance.  The 2014 rotation had its share of miscues and misfortune, including injuries to Liriano, Cole, and Morton, along with ineffectiveness at times from Locke and others.  The 2015 rotation, while a completely different entity from the ’14 edition, shares many same philosophies with the previous staff and as such can make for some fair comparisons and projections.  Some of the points I’m about to highlight may shock you, and some may fill you with hope that the 2015 starting rotation can be even better than the 2014 model in many ways.

Let’s get started with what has quickly become the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bread-and-butter:  the ground ball.

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Mar 12, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher A.J. Burnett (34) leaves the game during a spring training baseball game at McKechnie Field. The Boston Red Sox beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The Bucs hit the most batters of any major league starting staff.

As a unit, the Pirates’ starters plunked 58 batters in 2014, good for most in the majors and far more than the league average of 35.  Much has been written about the consequences that can come from such an approach, but perhaps it’s a good time for a refresher:

‘Unwritten rules’ aside, this approach to the plate can be problematic as it could put runners on base.  While that in itself might not be a problem the loss of Russell Martin greatly amplifies things.  Of the three candidates to replace Martin full-time, only Chris Stewart has a track record of consistently throwing out would-be base stealers, at 31% for his career, right on the 2014 league average.  Francisco Cervelli and Tony Sanchez come in at a disappointing 22% and an abysmal 15% for their careers, respectively.  While not only inviting opposing barbarians like the Diamondbacks to retaliate, it can put added pressure on the Pirate backstops to control the running game.  It could be worse.  The Bucs ranked in the middle-of-the-pack as a team in CS% at 28.9%, and the Pirates’ starters do play a part in that.  None of them are particularly slow to the plate, and that does help cut down on opposing clubs’ attempts to run.

One way to guard against baserunners hurting you is to outscore them.

Next: How about a little help here!

Sep 23, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) throws out a runner at second base after a bunt against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

They don’t get as much run support as they should.

For 2014, the Pittsburgh Pirates only placed two starters in the top 100 in terms of Run Support for that pitcher.  Edinson Volquez, newly departed for the KC Royals, was the highest Pirate in this regard, placing 23rd overall, as the Bucs scored an average of 4.35 runs in each of his starts.  The next Pirate on the list was Francsico Liriano, at number 78, with a paltry 3.38 average runs scored in support of his starts.  This absolutely must improve if the team is to finally overtake the Cardinals for NL Central supremacy.  With the emerging Pirate offense, there is no reason to think that this number will not see improvement.  Every pitcher that has ever played will absolutely tell you that pitching with runs on the board is their preferred scenario by far.  With Andrew McCutchen anchoring the lineup, along with superstars-in-the-making such as Starling Marte, I would be surprised if we did not see the Pirates offensive attack do more this year to help their starters.

Of course, there is plenty of room for the starters to help themselves, also.

Next: Can the starters take that next step to the elite?

Sep 22, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Francisco Liriano (47) pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

They need to improve in a few critical areas.

Some would say that the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 2014 starting rotation was average at best.  For all of the ground ball rates, lack of home runs surrendered, and more, one can easily look to middling numbers in other factors to build up their case for the Bucs to be saddled with the average label.  Here are some interesting stats from 2014:

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A look at these stats and their corresponding ranks show that the Pirates may have some work to do before one can consider their rotation to be elite.  Most troubling out of all of these is the total amount of innings pitched by a Pittsburgh Pirates starter.  While the Pirates do have an extremely reliable bullpen that

is not hesitant to use, the effect of the starters going longer into their starts can limit any potential weakness in the front end of the bullpen, where most of the questions lie with names such as

and

who still have to prove that they can be a reliable shark in the tank.  Creating a strong bridge to the rock-solid backend of

and

could be crucial to the Pirates picking up those extra four or five wins that might just decide the NL Central.

Although I listed it here, the strike-to-walkout ratio that the Pirates’ starters put up in 2014 isn’t too alarming to me.  For all of the reasons listed above, this number is made a little less damning by virtue of the Bucs’ ability to get ground ball outs.  However, I expect this number to improve substantially as Cole matures and Burnett returns to the fold.

The Wins-Above-Replacement value for the Pirates’ staff was a cumulative 7.4, good enough for dead last in the majors.  Worley’s 2.1 and Volquez’ 2.5 led the way, followed by a few negative ratings from others.  Cole’s WAR for 2014 was a 1.2.  A healthy and productive 2015, along with a more varied arsenal of pitches, should help see that value increase.

It’s highly exciting to see that even with some great strides in the past two years, the starting rotation as a unit can see considerable improvement in 2015.  I firmly believe that the 2015 version of the Pittsburgh Pirates will go only as far as their pitching will take them.  Keeping that in mind, I haven’t been this excited about a Bucco rotation as I am with this one.  Each hurler brings something a bit different to the table, all unified by a singular philosophy put in place by a front office and coaching staff that is quickly leaving its mark on the game.

(Please visit the link below to learn more about the best pitch for each Pirates starter)

Next: The best pitches of each Pittsburgh Pirates' starter