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Pirates’ starting rotation strong as any in the National League

By The Big Tuna |
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Mar 9, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher

Gerrit Cole

(45) throws a pitch during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the Minnesota Twins at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The argument has been made countless times this spring that the starting rotation for the Pittsburgh Pirates isn’t going to be good enough to take the team to the next level.  My question to the people who have put that thought out there is this: Just what is missing?

My answer is that unfortunately most people view the Pirates rotation and don’t see any big name, high-priced starting pitchers and automatically write them off as not being good enough to win the National League Central.

For example, the Cardinals have Adam Wainwright, the Giants have Madison Bumgarner and the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw, so naturally that makes all of those rotations stronger than the Pirates’ staff.

Give me a break.

That argument is nothing more than worthless, surface level analysis that not only is lazy but is totally ridiculous.  Introducing the ‘eye-ball’ test to evaluating starting rotations without actually comparing numbers and measuring the intangibles involved is not an effective way to build an argument, but unfortunately is just the type of coverage Pirate fans have become accustomed to from the local media.

The fact is to anyone who knows anything about the sport, the Pirates have just as strong a starting rotation as anyone in the NL Central and I’m about to explain why.  The initial reaction to that is disbelief because the Pirates don’t strut a big name ace like the other competition but let’s dive a little deeper and really analyze the other teams we’re competing against in the NL and then let’s talk.

Mar. 20, 2015; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner against the Cincinnati Reds during a spring training game at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco Giants

Matt Cain

Madison Bumgarner

Tim Hudson

Jake Peavy

Tim Lincecum

Even with the trusty ‘eye test’ which is used way too often by Pittsburgh media members to predict performance, you can’t tell me this lineup is better than ours.  If you say it is, I’ll call you a liar.  Sure I’m sure you’d hear Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner is a heck of a 1-2 punch!  But if you dig deeper you’ll realize that Matt Cain is not even close to being a sure thing.

He pitched 90 innings last year and then had season-ending elbow surgery.  And even before he was shut down he had a 4.18 ERA.  His 2013 wasn’t much better.  He started 30 games but had another 4.00+ ERA season.  Those marks are a far cry from the lights-out certified number one that he was in years past.  Bottom line, he’s not the same pitcher – at least not until he proves otherwise.

Tim Hudson will be 40 this year and got progressively worse throughout the season until his implosion in the month of September.  He had an 8.72 ERA that month.  Jake Peavy had a 4.72 ERA before he got kicked out of Boston and to his credit he did experience quite the resurgence but his fastball average went from mid-90s to low 90s over the last two years and he’s had close to a 4.20 ERA or higher in three of the last five seasons.  Tim Lincecum is the five man in the rotation at this point.  Do I even need to elaborate there?

And this staff is better than the Pirates’ starting five?  Don’t make me laugh.

Mar 20, 2015; Mesa, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) throws the ball during the fourth inning against the Oakland Athletics at HoHoKam Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Zach Greinke

Brandon McArthy

Brett Anderson

Kershaw is the best in the game.  He has had two consecutive sub-1.85 ERA seasons and a campaign in which he took home both the NL Cy Young and MVP awards.  He’s otherworldly and no other pitcher in the game is close less King Felix in Seattle.  Let’s move on.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is an excellent pitcher who has proved (when healthy) to be a solid compliment to the great one. The problem is he only threw 150 innings last year, experienced fatigue throughout the season and spent a nice amount of time on the disabled list. If he’s healthy though, no doubt he’s a certified number two.

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Zack Greinke’s resurgence in LA is impressive and he deserves all the credit in the world.  But remember, prior to the Dodgers, Greinke was a career mid-to-high 3.00 ERA guy with his previous three teams and there’s some slight concerns about his health coming in to the season.  He’s already received lubricating elbow injections in the spring and while he’s had those in the past, it makes you at least raise an eyebrow about the prospects of a repeat performance.

Brandon McCarthy has a career 4.09 ERA, a history of shoulder problems that has caused him to miss significant time, and since he was hit in the head with a line drive off of the bat with Eric Eybar in 2012, he hasn’t been the same pitcher.

His earned run average in two seasons with the Diamondbacks in ’13 and ’14 were 4.53 and 5.01, respectively.  He had a small stint with the Yankees that went extremely well, but who knows which McCarthy the Dodgers will see and more importantly, how long that McCarthy will be available.

Brett Anderson was a prized prospect for the Oakland A’s and showed tremendous promise.  However after Tommy John swallowed up his 2012 season, an oblique strain cancelled out his 2013 season and back surgery ended his 2014 campaign all I have to say is, good luck with that LA.

Oct 16, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) celebrates after the final out against the San Francisco Giants in the seventh inning of game five of the 2014 NLCS playoff at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

St Louis Cardinals

Adam Wainright

Lance Lynn

John Lackey

Michael Wacha

Carlos Martinez/Jaime Garcia

One word.  Strong.  But what do you expect from a franchise that’s had 13 winning seasons in 14 years?

Adam Wainwright is the model of efficiency.  Four sub-3.00 ERA seasons in five years, plus four 200-plus inning campaigns in that span to go along with four 19-win seasons.  Aside from 2012, he’s been  unbelievable.  There’s not much to pick apart here other than the fact that he’ll be 34 this year and he’s thrown 1,130 innings over the last five years.  He’s bound to break down sometime right?

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Lance Lynn had a breakout year in 2014 going 15-10 with a 2.74 ERA.   This production was a welcome surprise given in the previous two seasons, he had an earned run average in the high-3.00 range. Coming off a recent Spring Training shutdown because of a hip flexor strain, there’s not many out there who wouldn’t expect at least a slight regression. John Lackey is a stable veteran pitcher, but he’s not going to knock anyone’s socks off.  He has a career ERA of 4.03 and in 10 games with St. Louis last year he went 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA.  Yawn.

Michael Wacha will be a wild card this year.  He was arguably one of the most promising young pitchers in the game in 2013.  He certainly came into Pittsburgh and slammed the door shut on our World Series hopes, pitching like a seasoned veteran in one of the most hostile environments in all of baseball in arguably the most important game of his career to-date. Coming off of a very complicated and scary stress fracture in his scapula, however, your guess is as good as mine as to what happens this season with young prodigy and how long he can even stay on the mound.

Carlos Martinez is a young talent that has excellent stuff when he is on point; however like most young pitchers he is plagued with inconsistency.  His spring performance is a pre-curs0r for what to expect in the regular season.  In his second game out, he pitched three scoreless innings, but in the very next start he was tagged for five runs.  Martinez will have moments of brillance throughout the year, but he’ll have an equal amount of starts that will leave St. Louis fans scratching their heads.

Mar 5, 2015; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher

Francisco Liriano

(47) walks back to the dugout after he pitched the first inning against the New York Yankees at a spring training baseball game at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

So looking at the competition, do you see why you should be happy with the Pirates’ starting five?  If you’re not, you’re crazy.  We may not have the fancy big name talent like a Wainwright or a Kershaw but if you look up and down the rotation from 1 to 5, the Pirates are as strong or stronger than any other team in the National League.

So the argument that our rotation isn’t strong enough needs to stop.  If you have enough nerve to make the argument at least have enough self-respect to back it up with facts.

Because this year the eye-test isn’t good enough for Pirates fans.

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